No one knows what Putin’s up to, but sanctions are the west’s biggest mistake
The outcome of the coming week’s deliberations is predictable, but the result could be the partition of Ukraine
from The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/29/ukraine-putin-sanctions-west-biggest-mistake
Sanctions against Russia have proved, and will always prove, worthless. The relentless desire to continue with them is cockeyed, since they hurt western companies and economies, and are of no avail in changing Putin’s policies. They may well succeed in ruining the Russian economy, but what will that bring? More of the same – or worse. It was the humiliation of Russia and impoverishment of its citizens in the 1990s that brought Putin to power in the first place.
And yet the delusion persists that sanctions can be widened and deepened, strengthened and escalated, until finally Putin caves in. But nothing in his character, or in Russia’s behaviour in the past, suggests this will happen. The only outcome is that time is wasted on an endless search for new targets to punish, instead of grappling with the root causes of the conflict.
Since sanctions don’t work, and war is unthinkable (President Obama on Thursday explicitly ruled out military intervention), then only one viable option remains. If Ukraine is to become peaceful and whole again, and Putin prevented from carving chunks out of neighbouring countries, there needs to be political engagement with Moscow.
There would have to be an immediate, total ceasefire by Kiev and the rebels, followed by talks on a constitutional settlement to protect the rights of the Russian minority. Putin might well be persuaded to back this (and withdraw his phantom forces from Ukraine) if he is promised that Ukraine will never join Nato. The alliance’s leaders could use their Welsh summit to reverse their 2008 declaration that Ukraine “will become” a member. The west could then drop its sanctions, and Russia would end its own retaliatory ban on western imports. Crimea’s annexation would have to be accepted, at least for the moment, for the sake of preserving the rest of Ukraine.
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