Time, Again, To Kill Myth of Jewish Trend to GOP: Far-Right Israel Rhetoric is Aimed at Evangelicals

[marmar]

Time, Once Again, To Explode Myth of Jewish Trend to GOP: Far-Right Israel Rhetoric is Aimed at Evangelicals


At about this time in nearly every presidential cycle, you start hearing that Jews are going to leave the Democratic column in significant numbers either because a Democratic administration is insufficiently supportive of Israel or a Republican administration is all warm and cozy with Israeli leaders. Yes, there have been a couple of fairly recent presidential elections where the Jewish vote moved significantly: the 1980 cycle, when Jewish unhappiness (on both domestic and international issues) with Jimmy Carter held him to an extraordinarily low 45% of the Jewish vote (still more than Ronald Reagan, but with major defections to third-party candidate John Anderson), and the 1992 cycle, when Jewish unhappiness (on both domestic and internation issues) with George H.W. Bush held the incumbent to a mere 11% of that vote. By and large, though, the Jewish vote has been reasonably stable, with Democrats typically winning two-thirds to three-fourths of it.

And that's how it looks in 2012, notes the distinguished Israeli journalist Gershom Gorenberg at TAP, drawing from a new survey by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute. PRRI shows 62% of Jewish voters expressing support for President Obama's re-election as opposed to 30% preferring a "generic" Republican. Generic GOPers have typically done better than actual candidates in polls this cycle, of course, and in addition, PRRI notes this split in sentiment is very similar to what it found at this point in the last cycle, where Obama ultimately won 78% of the Jewish vote.

Aside from the questionable nature of the quadrennial predictions of major Jewish defections to the GOP, related mythmaking involves the belief that American Jews are closely attuned to Israeli attitudes towards U.S. politics, or for that matter, vote primarily on Middle Eastern issues. That's far from the truth, notes Gorenberg:

If Obama does lose some Jewish support, Israel won't be the reason. Only 4 percent of PRRI's respondents listed Israel as the most important issue for them in the election, and only another 5 percent listed it in second place. Some of those were already in the Republican camp, perhaps most. Anyone who is terribly impressed that Mitt Romney and Benjamin Netanyahu are old friends from their days as apprentice robber barons was not a likely an Obama voter to begin with.

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The complete piece is at: http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/879797/time%2C_once_again%2C_to_explode_myth_of_jewish_trend_to_gop%3A_far-right_israel_rhetoric_is_aimed_at_evangelicals/

[aquart]

1. You'll never convince them that all Jews don't vote alike.