Putin believes that he can win war with NATO and no response if he attacks Estonia

[NewsCenter28]

Fascinating. The question basically is: Are you ready to die for Estonia?

http://www.interpretermag.com/putin-believes-he-can-win-a-war-with-nato-piontkovsky-says/

Clearly, he continues, Putin does not seek “the destruction of the hated United States,” a goal that he could achieve “only at the price of mutual suicide.” Instead, his goals are “significantly more modest: the maximum extension of the Russian World, the destruction of NATO, and the discrediting and humiliation of the US as the guarantor of the security of the West.”

To put it in simplest terms, Piontkovsky continues, Putin’s actions would be “revenge for the defeat of the USSR in the third (cold) world war just as the second world war was for Germany an attempt at revenge for defeat in the first.”

If the Russian speakers of Narva in Estonia were to conduct a referendum and Moscow sent in its forces overtly or covertly, how might NATO react? Piontkovsky asks. If NATO did not respond, “that would mean the end of NATO and the end of the US as a world power and the complete political dominance of Putin’s Russia not only in the area of the Russian World but in the entire European continent.”

But whether it would respond “is hardly obvious,” he suggests. Despite Article 5, many NATO countries would be reluctant to respond lest they trigger a nuclear war. “Putin knows that they know that if they come to the assistance of Estonia, then Putin can respond with a very limited nuclear strike and destroy for example two European capitals. Not London and not Paris, of course.”

Under those circumstances, Putin clearly assumes, many in the US would oppose responding. “All progressive and even all reactionary American society” would shout “’We do not want to die for f****** Narva, Mr. President!’” And 70 percent of Germans would insist on neutrality.

[Turbineguy]

1. Dr. Strangelove

Part II coming soon?

[sakabatou]

2. Is he trying to get back every country that was in the USSR?

[NewsCenter28]

3. That is his desire

But if he is ready to go to war for it is the big question mark.

[sakabatou]

5. True.

And considering we have MAD in place, I don't know how it'll work out.

[freshwest]

6. He already has done so, more than once. But the real question is would NATO? I think not.

[freshwest]

4. Not the Onion? FFS! Don't worry, some will cheer.

[CJCRANE]

7. Psychobabble.

We really are living in bizarroworld again with the amount of propaganda that's being pumped out.

[newthinking]

8. Incredible Speculation passing for "reporting" these days which seems to be more propaganda or

pandering for views

I would love to see just one credible point of proof that Putin has indicated anything like all these reports suggest.

I have pointed out here many times that Ukraine actually annexed Crimea (Read up on how the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea" got that name, they fought from the beginning and never wanted to be part of Ukraine and that was a compromise which during the depression there Ukraine rewrote their consititution against their will), and that what happened is not as it has been painted.

Going to Latvia and Lithuania to spark up fear was a very cynical thing to do as well. Latvia has severe issues with ethnic Russians who make up 40% of the country. For 20 years they have not been allowed to be citizens. Since they cannot vote the government there is filled with Russophobes. And then to give them an excuse to ramp up the hatred is really regressive.

[newfie11]

16. +1 Nt

[HERVEPA]

54. Thanks for the enlightenment Vlad.

[NuclearDem]

64. Since you're big on history

Then surely you know why Latvians have a distaste for Russia.

Hint: it's not just because they're mean ol' Russophobes.

[newthinking]

65. I understand that. But what are the ethnic Russians in Latvia doing to them

Last edited Fri Sep 5, 2014, 09:40 PM - Edit history (1)

and has Putin actually threatened any action outside of the events in Ukraine?

There is no threat to Latvians. So when do we, as progressives, look toward stokeing up old hatred's anyway?

There is a reason behind all this propaganda and fear mongering. I think we are going to see a lot more of it, and some progressives are sleeping.

[reorg]

9. So, if the European prostitution-tourism capital is lost

how far will the Swedes have to go in search for another prostitution-tourism destination?

OMG, the end is near. Not just of NATO. THE END OF THE US AS A WORLD POWER!

Horrible prospects indeed.

[davidpdx]

26. Nice smear of Swedes

Tell me, what did that have to do if anything with the OP? Is it necessary to demean and entire country for the bad behavior of some men that participate in doing that?

Maybe you should stop preaching against hate because you are looking a little hypocritical.

[reorg]

31. Estonia as a tourist destination

is not only attractive for the sex-deprived:

From The Times of Israel, 18 Dec 2012, by Efraim Zuroff

... In the last two years alone, during which Ansip was prime minister, several events took place in Estonia which clearly reflect these disturbing trends in Holocaust revisionism. A good place to begin is the yearly gatherings of veterans of the Estonian Waffen-SS units at Sinimae on the last Saturday in July, which attract SS veterans from all over Europe, many from countries in which such gatherings are forbidden. Needless to say, such meetings are not being held to organize mass confessions of guilt or expressions of deep remorse for fighting for a victory of the most genocidal regime in human history.

On the contrary, these meetings are part of a campaign to portray these Waffen-SS fighters as heroes fighting for Estonia’s freedom, even though their German masters had absolutely no intention of ever granting any of the Baltic countries independence. Even worse, this past February 14th, the Estonian Parliament passed the “Valentine Day’s Law,” which granted these men status as freedom fighters, officially “repressed by the Soviets,” a status which bestows all sorts of financial benefits, in this case to those who fought for a victory of the Third Reich.

In October 2011, the Estonian authorities announced that they were closing their investigation of Mikhail Gorshkow, an Estonian citizen who served with the Gestapo in Belarus and was implicated in the mass murder of approximately three thousand Jews in the destruction of the Slutzk Ghetto. After the war, Gorshkow had escaped to the United States, where he was stripped of his American citizenship for concealing his wartime collaboration with the Nazis. Following his return to Estonia and under pressure from abroad, an investigation was initiated by the Estonians, but was ultimately closed due to a doubt regarding his identity, a result which appears quite strange given the legal measures taken against him by the Americans, who unequivocally confirmed his identity in the process.
Given the total failure hereto of the Estonian judiciary to bring a single Estonian Nazi war criminal/collaborator to justice, the result of this latest case comes as no surprise. ...

http://jiw.blogspot.de/2012/12/estonias-severe-case-of-holocaust.html

No doubt we need to be vigilant that Russia doesn't catch this valuable price!

(Message for those who do not recognize sarcasm: get a grip!)

[davidpdx]

33. Again, it has nothing to do with the OP

And again I ask you, why is it necessary to smear an entire country for an act only some men take part in.

[reorg]

34. since you insist

that I elaborate on my off-hand comment about sex tourists from Sweden: it is not "some men", it is the relatively recent change of Swedish law that prompted a rise in that trade, ergo the entire country or at least the majority who voted for this change.

[geek tragedy]

35. Because Estonia told the Russians to fuck off.

Russians don't appreciate such insolence from their former colonies.

[DFW]

10. The Germans have a great expression: Frechheit siegt

Frechheit is one of those difficult-to-translate words. It sort of means "daring with snark." In a practical sense, it means, you can get away with being rude or a bully, or just with breaking the rules. But you have to willing to try it first.

No matter what historical claims Russia might have had on the Ukraine, just marching in and taking Crimea because he wanted to is a prefect example of "Frechheit siegt." Putin went in with this "Whaddya gonna do about it, huh?" attitude, because he figured, correctly, that the answer was "nothing." The same probably goes for Estonia except that Estonia is now a member of the EU. No, we wouldn't start a nuclear war to save Tallinn.

Seventy years after the end of World War II and only twenty years after the savagery of the Balkans, NOBODY in Europe wants war again. The Germans would probably agree to Moscow as their capital city before they would want to fight again. But the EU would cut off Russia economically if it made an overt move on one of its members militarily (or even through a fifth column action). They would freeze and eat cold food for decades before buying Russian fuel again, and economic interaction with Russia would stop on a dime. Putin would get away with seizing any or all of the three Baltic states, but as EU members, he'd be crossing a line that he and all his countrymen would regret for a long time. He might not get a shooting war with the west, but he'd get a colder one than any of his 20th century predecessors ever saw.

One thing Putin is also probably well aware of: if he starts a disastrous economic war with the EU and the USA over something like Estonia, his days as "товарищ президент (comrade president)" would be numbered. The oligarchs that stand behind him now would have his body parts scattered to the four winds if they saw their vast wealth imperiled.

[reorg]

11. If it succeeds against stupid violent Nazi thugs in Ukraine

I'm all for it.



https://www.google.com/search?q=stupid+violent+nazi+thugs+in+ukraine&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=04oJVMTKDomdO57PgfAH&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAQ&biw=1920&bih=943

[DFW]

12. You have exactly the same types on the other side, too

There are no angels in this conflict.

[reorg]

14. Pictures, please.

I tried "stupid violent nazi thugs in novorossia", no such luck as with the previous search.

Unless we consider this:



Or this:

?w=1000&h=1500

Enough with playing games now, I got to go to the dentist.

[geek tragedy]

22. People who link to vineyard saker

are in no position to critique others for supporting fascism and supporting anti-Jewish bigotry. The people who support Putin have proven themselves to be fascists. Russian fascists are no better than Nazis.

[MohRokTah]

25. If you support Putin, then as far as I'm concerned you are anti-LGBT.

I';ll remembner your anti-LGBT stance.

[reorg]

32. That's big IF, and you'll draw a blank if you search for "anti-LGBT" statements

by me. While I have only occasionally slept with same-sex partners, I am actually kinda proud of it and telling everybody who wants to hear. The first time I was introduced to trans-gender issues was in a discussion in a leftist club in 1972, perhaps decades before you were even born. So, spare me with your patronizing one-liners.

[MohRokTah]

36. Supporting anything Putin does is an anti-LGBT statement. eom

[reorg]

37. another one-liner

uhu.

[MohRokTah]

38. Can't take the facts? Don't post on the internet. eom

[reorg]

39. and yet another!

ouch. You haven't mentioned any facts in your economical submissions, but rest assured I won't miss them if you finally do.

[LanternWaste]

42. Nor you.... merely allegations and editorial.

"You haven't mentioned any facts in your economical submissions"

Nor you.... merely allegations and editorial. However, I do understand the ethical convenience of holding others to a higher standard than you may hold yourself. (insert distinction without a difference here to maintain the pretense of possessing regional knowledge of what you speak).

[reorg]

46. well, the only "allegation" I made

in this little subthread was that by searching for "stupid violent nazi thugs in Ukraine" you'll find quite a collection of illustrative imagery:

https://www.google.com/search?q=stupid+violent+nazi+thugs+in+ukraine&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=04oJVMTKDomdO57PgfAH&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAQ&biw=1920&bih=943

and I'll continue to support any attempt, as brazen or impertinent as may be, to get in their way.

[geek tragedy]

48. Here is a search for you:

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=fascist+thugs+in+moscow

[Dreamer Tatum]

56. That is the first time I have ever seen someone claim as their pro-LGBT bona fides

"occasionally sleeping with same-sex partners."

Is that part of some criteria, in your estimation?

[sendero]

15. I would agree with your assessment..

... except that China is the fly in that ointment. Russia and China are already working on energy deals and the other issues could be dealt with by China also.

Does China really want to start a cold war with us? I would not rule it out, not at all.

[DFW]

17. China is a different kind of leadership, though

They rule by a collective council. If one of them screws up, he is removed for the good of the rest of them. Putin is a one-man show, as long as he doesn't rock the boat for the hands that feed him. The Chinese think fifteen years down the road.

There are plenty of ethnic Chinese living in Vietnam, for example. But the days when they would send the PLA in there are over. Why invade with force when all you have to do is write a check?

[sendero]

30. I think..

... we are in accidental agreement. I'm not talking about China acting militarily. I'm talking about what amounts to economic warfare.

The Chinese intend to become the world's economic superpower. They are well on their way. They, and many other countries are tired of trading with dollars that are created out of thin air at an alarming rate. They realize that in many ways we are living in a post-military world, control of money is more important than control of bombs.

An alliance with Russia to achieve their aims isn't a stretch at all. They don't have to agree with Putin or his actions. They can just find a way to get his gas to their shores, and to increase trade, especially trade that does not involve the dollar.

[geek tragedy]

23. China is joined at the hip with us

economically.

[davidpdx]

27. I think it's completely lost on some people that the EU was formed to prevent a war

They act as though it is the second coming of the United States. It is precisely what happened in WWI and WWII that the EU is trying to prevent.

[DFW]

29. Quite true

Adenauer and DeGaulle got together right after World War II and were in complete agreement that "this (war between the two)" must never be allowed to happen again.

THAT was what the EEC/EU was intended for. The immense bureaucracy that is the EU today was never the intent of either. The mammoth bureaucracy in Brussels told Denmark it couldn't call its local apples "apples" because the arbitrary norm decided by the EU dictated that apples had to be bigger before anyone in the EU could call them apples. THAT is definitely NOT what DeGaulle and Adenauer had in mind. The Danes threatened to cancel their membership in the EU if Brussels was going to get that petty, and Brussels relented. Danish apples are officially apples, and Denmark stayed in the EU. But it makes me puke that it has come to this.

[hobbit709]

13. “It [the Sudetenland] is the last territorial claim that I have to make in Europe.”

[DFW]

18. A good example

And then "seit fünf Uhr wird zurückgeschossen."

[geek tragedy]

19. Any such slow-motion invasion

Would get crushed quickly. He would have to do a blitzkrieg (the preparations for which would be seen) and defend against a counter attack as well as face the prospect of Russia itself being bombed.

[former9thward]

62. LOL

Bombed by who?

[Enrique]

20. the person who wrote it is somewhat relevant, don't you think?

a political opponent of Putin.

But I'm speaking as someone who is trying to figure out what is happening in Russia.

[Nye Bevan]

21. Estonia is a NATO member.

If NATO did not respond to Putin invading Estonia then NATO might as well be dissolved, and Putin allowed to take any country he wants.

[MohRokTah]

24. The madman is inviting nuclear war.

NATO would go that far to protect any member nation.

The man is out of his fucking mind.

[The Magistrate]

28. I Think This Is Well Within The Bounds Of Probability, Sir

All Putin's actions are based on his calculation that the West will not fight.

And yet we are treated daily to claims NATO is seeking war, deliberately provoking Russia, that people are 'beating the war drums', and a variety of other driveling boiler-plate.

Putin's calculation is correct, however: not only is the West not seeking war in Ukraine, it is not going to respond with war to the war Russia provoked and initiated with Ukraine. It may well not respond with war to a repeat of the exercise in the Baltic states.

[pampango]

40. "All Putin's actions are based on his calculation that the West will not fight."

Substitute another name for Putin and that sentence would apply quite well to Europe in the late 1930's prior to WWII.

Nothing that Germany did to Austria, Czechoslovakia or Poland caused the West to fight. (While France and the UK declared war on Germany when it invaded Poland in September 1939, there was almost no actual fighting - the Phoney War.) Only the invasion of the West (France) did that.

[geek tragedy]

47. The tripwire approach has kept the DPRK

at bay for 60+ years. No reason to think it would fail against Putin, methinks.

[The Magistrate]

49. Do Not Neglect The Nuclear Factor In Your Analysis, Sir

The North Koreans, somewhere in their leaders' minds, know that we could, if we chose, exterminate them in a matter of hours, without the slightest risk to ourselves, and that remai9ns true even today, whatever rudimentary nuclear capability they may possess.

Combat on any scale between U.S. and Russian forces, opens the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons, whether on the battlefield or beyond. Neither side possesses the capability to deprive the other of wherewithall to deliver a retaliatory strike, even if attacked first by the other's full arsenal. If one side resolves to risk this, it is almost certain the other will not choose to face that risk. However moves first, in such a situation, is very likely to carry the day without serious opposition.

[geek tragedy]

50. The question is whether Putin is merely

a fascist thug, or a madman.

The costs in terms of Russian dead have been next to zero. How much would Estonia be worth?

[The Magistrate]

51. Not A Question I Can Answer, Sir

But I can certainly see reasons why he might think it could be acquired very cheaply. If the root calculation that the West will not fight is sound, which I suspect it is, what would the cost be?

[geek tragedy]

52. Stationing US and German troops

on the border should dispel any notion of it coming cheaply.

[The Magistrate]

53. In Neither Country, Sir

Is their much stomach for the prospect of war with Russia among the people, or among the economic elites. A democratic polity cannot readily enter into war without such popular backing for the enterprise. Democracies are at some disadvantage in flexibility, in this regard, relative to authoritarian and totalitarian polities.

[geek tragedy]

55. A better question is whether Russia's

senior partners in Beijing would tolerate such a drag on global commerce.

[The Magistrate]

57. Now That Is A Real Factor, Sir

But Chinese influence is of the indirect 'soft power' sort, the same as the response the West is, to some degree, willing to make. These may be very powerful over a long term, if sustained, but have little effect as deterrents to actions which might bring immediate benefits of aggrandizement territorially and politically.

[geek tragedy]

58. Mr Putin enjoys unlimited power currently

Last edited Fri Sep 5, 2014, 12:13 PM - Edit history (1)

but even Czars had to exercise discretion.

Kazakhstan would be a much more plausible target, as would Belarus. Low hanging fruit.

Also, any move against the Baltics would endanger Kaliningrad.

[freshwest]

66. Putin and his media accomplices (Infowars, RT, GAS, the Pauls, MSM, LP, FNN, et al) have done what

military parity could not have done. The West lost far more than the Axis powers in WW2 in life and treasure and it then organized to prevent that catastrophe repeating itself.

One of the things that preclude collapse of a nation is demoralization. All almost Americans are treated to a steady diet of demonization of the nation by our history of crimes, both old and new that we committed as a nation and our continuing legacy of failing to live up to our ideals. Add that to our coming to age with all these things.

We have not silenced criticism as a matter of principle as ruthlessly as some nations. We've always stood naked in front of the world as we work out our diseases and imperfections. We wash our dirtiest linen and most foul secrets in public.

Other nations see nothing wrong burning theirs to keep the myth of their moral superiority. No one could survive in those nations if they spoke as many do here in the USA against our president. Yet it is seen as a sign of our weakness that we allow disunity.

In a rough way, they are right - but we are taking the longer view - but only if we continue to show our sins to be seen and do the work of cleansing.

Decades of Pax America if one will call it that, have put a burden on us as well our unwillingness to fight with each other. In the next few days, Scots will decide if they wish to cut the ties that bind them to more southern parts of the island they share.

In the past, such attempts at self-rule were met with betrayal and slaughter. It won't happen again there; most likely will not occur here to keep those who want to secede with us.

But utter destruction of the enemies of the state is Putin's mode of ruling. He is capable of crushing resistance or attempts to slip away. Just as Russia's long-standing ally Syria. In their way of looking at things, only the preservation of the state with its benefits matters.

Human rights are of no issue next to the survival of the whole. This will include women and all minority views being put to the side and they will be silenced, most brutally.

If DU is any window on the world, Americans do not see this country as worth saving. They can think of nothing good to say about anything, and any attempt to lift the spirit is attacked. Nothing stands in the way of the misery taught by media. The site will reflect those voices like clockwork.

It can't be helped. Repetition teaches us what is and is not acceptable places of the human mind to go. And there is safety going with the group, that is instinct.

The disinformation war has been a success by plutocratic propagandists. They attack from the left and right, and way off to the side. We are infected. We appear to be in a state of despair, self-doubt and loathing that is daily fed by media. But no matter what is being done to advance Russian interest, their people need to feel that they are winning.

From my talks with some of them, a return to the monarchy, empire and Eastern Orthodox Church is their goal, as I think it is Putin's too. The collapse of the USSR was lethal to many Russians and left wounds, with social safety nets being destroyed. The nation is a Libertarian paradise from my reading of it now. And they adore Putin for bringing back what they thought was more civlized.

Just my opinion.

[The Magistrate]

43. If You Tried, Fella, Do You Think You Could Be More Obvious?

[The Magistrate]

45. Keep 'Em Coming, Sweetheart....

[Xolodno]

59. The Bullshit is strong in this one....

....Jeez.

Putin is going to do nothing after he secures Ukraine...that is get an antonymous east Ukraine, Crimea recognized as part of Russia (probably in some sort of energy deal) and a confirmation that Ukraine does not join NATO.

Doing anything else gives NATO justification for its existence. Doing nothing does the opposite...it makes his point that he feels threatened by NATO and only "responding" to the west.

[Jeneral2885]

60. Conventional war yes

it's not like the US will nuke Russia with such an invasion

[LittleBlue]

61. The west won't fight

Imagine these pols trying to justify apocalyptic nuclear war for Estonia. Europeans would shit themselves. Even the average American, who is usually up for any fight, will say "Where the fuck is Estonia?" They could find Iraq on a map before Estonia.

NATO and the EU are both very fragile right now.

[Warren Stupidity]

63. Considering this is the 100th anniversary of the start of WWI

Those are the boundaries of Russia before the political social and economic century of turmoil that followed from the destructive force of WWI.