The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings: Act Now or Regret It

[GliderGuider]

The Mathematics of Ebola Trigger Stark Warnings: Act Now or Regret It

The most arresting is a piece published last week in the journal Eurosurveillance, which is the peer-reviewed publication of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (the EU’s Stockholm-based version of the US CDC). The piece is an attempt to assess mathematically how the epidemic is growing, by using case reports to determine the “reproductive number.” (Note for non-epidemiology geeks: The basic reproductive number — usually shorted to R0 or “R-nought” — expresses how many cases of disease are likely to be caused by any one infected person. An R0 of less than 1 means an outbreak will die out; an R0 of more than 1 means an outbreak can be expected to increase. If you saw the movie Contagion, this is what Kate Winslet stood up and wrote on a whiteboard early in the film.)

The Eurosurveillance paper, by two researchers from the University of Tokyo and Arizona State University, attempts to derive what the reproductive rate has been in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. (Note for actual epidemiology geeks: The calculation is for the effective reproductive number, pegged to a point in time, hence actually Rt.) They come up with an R of at least 1, and in some cases 2; that is, at certain points, sick persons have caused disease in two others.

You can see how that could quickly get out of hand, and in fact, that is what the researchers predict. Here is their stop-you-in-your-tracks assessment:

In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

[GliderGuider]

1. I don't normally like to predict the course of events, but

I think we will see a sudden global scramble to act starting in about a month - around mid-October - as the infection moves into Lagos and shows the first signs of breaking out of just places inhabited by poor brown people.

Edited to add: This is a far, far bigger deal than ISIS, Israel/Gaza and Ukraine all rolled into one. IMNSHO.

[LuvNewcastle]

2. I agree.

I'd rather take my chances with ISIS than with ebola. We need to be doing all we can to assist the African countries in stopping this epidemic before we embark on any other adventures. We would be doing that if we were getting involved overseas for strictly humanitarian reasons.

[deafskeptic]

7. I hope you're wrong. It hasn't helped that I've read 2 books about hot germs recently either. :P n/t

[brooklynite]

3. A friend of mine is one of the leading authorities on the Ebola risk...

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/14/you_are_not_nearly_scared_enough_ebola_vaccine_west_africa_outbreak

[GliderGuider]

4. That was written a month ago

Little has happened since then. It takes a long time to grab the attention of the political classes, especially when nobody in Liberia or Sierra Leone votes for them...

I have a very uneasy feeling about this one.

[brooklynite]

5. No, there's actually a lot of planning going on...

...but it's going to take a month or two to gear up for a response.

[GliderGuider]

6. As I said above, we'll probably see a big scramble in mid-October. nt

[phantom power]

8. I keep thinking about how the House turned down $58 million in aid for that crisis.

Out of a national budget measured in trillions. To scale, that's like you or me refusing to pull a fucking quarter out of our pocket to put out a fire in our garbage can before it spreads to the house.

[rustydog]

9. In countries with horrible healthcare

You left that out.
It could spread in America, England, France etc...but their healthcare system is modern and excellent. Why do foreign medical and clinical workers volunteer to help in 3rd world countries...They care obviously, but because their current healthcare sustem is solely lacking which aids in the spread of these diseases...