Korea is on the path to reunion probably by mid 2015 but......

[CK_John]

will it be civil or because of the total breakdown of the NK.

CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/04/world/asia/north-korea-officials-surprise-visit/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I am currently reading a book on North Korea. That nation is a hot mess

South Korea is going to need massive amounts of aid to absorb the north if reunification comes to pass. I will believe it when I see it.

[CK_John]

2. East Germany melding could be a model.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. East Germany was doing a lot better than North Korea...

East Germany was doing a lot better than North Korea but subsequent research shows they weren't doing as well as western scholars believed.

I don't see what's in it for Kim and the party. They will be out of jobs. Kim is now the boss of all bosses. I don't see him giving it up though it would be a godsend for his people.

[CK_John]

5. Kim's sister seems to be running the show now that Kim is MIA.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. China is in a interesting position.

There is no love lost there for North Korea but it will be a blow to their prestige on the other hand if North Korea falls. However the blow would be softened by the fact that we would remove our troops from a united Korea as they wouldn't be necessary.

Also, if there is chaos China would be overrun with Korean immigrants.


Again, what a godsend for the North Korean people if this comes to pass. I was reading that because of poor nutrition Koreans are up to twenty centimeters shorter than their South Korean counterparts and some girls don't reach puberty to eighteen or nineteen years old.

[hifiguy]

15. Which is why China will do everything it can to avoid chaos,

even take the "prestige" hit, which won't be that big a deal as they will be the world's largest economy within ten-twenty years. It is in China's long-term best interests to eventually see a reunified Korea and the Chinese always think long term. That comes naturally for a civilization that has been around for 3000+ years.

Present-day North Korea is almost certainly one of the models the 1% looking to for the future of the US - a docile, desperate, completely brainwashed population that can be jailed or disappeared for complaining about their masters. Goldman's wet dream.

[jberryhill]

6. "Kim is now the boss of all bosses."

I think I saw him on a milk carton the other day.

[davidpdx]

3. It was an interesting day here in Korea

[brooklynite]

8. Reunion? not a chance...

If NK is stable, it has no political incentive to reunify; if it falls into chase, there's no incentive for South Korea to take over.

[FLPanhandle]

9. Not a chance.

There is no way the powerful families in NK can allow it without losing all credibility and their positions of power / privilege. It would also be scary for South Korea due to the poor conditions of NK.

[CK_John]

10. Too much to gain with reunion than to stay separate right now. China unrest,

lack of winter supplies, technology breaking through to the younger age group, and strong culture ties has caused a breakout and it will be swift.

The rolling ball is unstoppable.

[hifiguy]

16. It will be like East Germany or Czechoslovakia:

It will happen and it will come to pass virtually overnight when it does. The Chinese, if they are half as smart and long-headed as I believe them to be, will take a role like that played by Mikhail Gorbachev.

[hunter]

18. Yep. North Korea is not at all compatible with China's economic reforms or future plans.

.

[chrisa]

11. Another problem is the deep brainwashing of the populace. How many of them will go along?

Will there be mass suicides? Terrorist attacks? Will a unification be attempted the other way (North Korea sacking South Korea, and a subsequent "purging&quot ?

[Lurks Often]

12. Not going to happen

unless the little troll dies and a Chinese backed person takes over and maybe not even then. NK isn't about common sense or doing what is right for it's citizens, it's about following an ideaology to a degree that matches the worst religious fanatic.

[DFW]

13. 2065 maybe, and maybe not even

The East Germans may not all have disagreed with their regime, but most of them were informed, as most of them got West German TV and radio, and none of them were starving. Most North Koreans are on subsistence level and know nothing of the outside world other than what their government tells them. Sort of what the USA would be if the only TV channel were Fox Noise.

Plus, the Stasi guys saw the writing on the wall and many of them had time to "convert" into savvy western-style businessmen. The East German military became part of the West German military because Gorbachev correctly assessed the continuing pacifist mood of West Germany. The North Korean elite is mostly bellicose military and has nowhere to go if their regime dissolves. Their regime isn't going anywhere soon.

[Dreamer Tatum]

14. In what world will that happen? nt

[CK_John]

17. Our world.

[DemocraticWing]

19. I don't think people really grasp what's happening in North Korea.

Americans have all bought into the narrative that the Kims were something other than puppets of a Chinese-supported oligarchy. The main job of the North Korean dictator is to provide a godlike figure to the oppressed populace and occasionally say provocative things about South Korea and the USA. Kim Jong Un has very little actual power, and if his sister is about to succeed him, she won't either.

The actual ruling faction of North Korea has disintegrated in recent years and there's a new generation trying to take power. They were the ones who executed Kim Jong Un's uncle, and it wasn't because he was a threat to Kim. I don't know if reunification is what they have planned, but if they get backed into a corner it might end up being the only viable option.

[CK_John]

20. With passing of Jean-Claude Duvalier, Haiti’s ‘Baby Doc,’ there is a vacant villa

somewhere in Europe.

The Kim Jong Un clan could gather up their billions and call their Realtor, it's time to get out of Dodge.