Up to 42 day incubation period for Ebola not 21

[boomer55]

The 42-day period is twice the generally accepted maximum incubation period of the virus. However, some incubation periods are longer - that WHO said that in 95 percent of cases the incubation period was between one and 21 days. In 98 percent it was no longer than 42 days.

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0I328W20141014?irpc=932

[Lars39]

1. Damn

K&depressingR

[Yo_Mama]

2. That's correct, and here is a direct link to WHO referencing that

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/14-october-2014/en/

But the thought is that the longer "incubation" periods actually reflect missed transmissions.

I am not claiming that's true. Just passing it on. On a more hopeful note, WHO does believe that they will shortly be able to declare Nigeria and Senegal Ebola-free.

[boomer55]

3. so they should quarantine all those people for 42 days down in tx...

although its probably too late now that the nurse flew on the airplane.

[Yo_Mama]

4. The second HCW is a low risk, but a transmission risk

So now things have gotten abruptly far more difficult.

Plane travel involves pressure changes that would be more likely to bring virus out of hiding. Still low risk, but definitely there's risk.

So there's another potential 5-700 exposures now. Maybe 1/2 of one percent risk to 30 to 40 people, which translates to about a 1.5% chance of transmission. That's at least in the ballpark. In practice it probably will be zero transmission, but shit. Without knowing the contagion route, you can't figure the real risk. The problem is that it's too many people to track.

We have no plan for this, btw. This was what wasn't supposed to happen, but unless you put all the HCW on notice beforehand, sooner or later it was GOING to happen.