Tracking a Serial Killer: Could Ebola Mutate To Become More Deadly? National Geographic answers.

[Fred Sanders]

Last edited Thu Oct 16, 2014, 10:26 PM - Edit history (2)

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141015-ebola-virus-outbreak-pandemic-zoonotic-contagion/

Where Did It Come From?

The outbreak began in early December, in a village called Meliandou, southeastern Guinea, not far from the borders with both Liberia and Sierra Leone. The first known case was a two-year-old child who died, after fever and vomiting and passing black stool, on December 6. The child's mother died a week later, then a sister and a grandmother, all with symptoms that included fever, vomiting, and diarrhea. Then, by way of caregiving visits or attendance at funerals, the outbreak spread to other villages.

Ebola: Tracking the Outbreak

It wasn't until March, three months later, that local officials alerted the Guinean Ministry of Health about these clusters of a strange, lethal disease in the countryside. By then, human-to-human transmission had started to multiply the case count. But tracing linked cases raises the question of ultimate origin. How did that first child get sick?

Ebola virus is a zoonosis, meaning an animal infection transmissible to humans. The animal in which a zoonosis lives its customary existence, discreetly, over the long term, and without causing symptoms, is called a reservoir host. The reservoir host of Ebola virus is still unknown—even after 38 years of efforts to identify it, since the original 1976 outbreak—although one or more kinds of fruit bat, including the hammer-headed bat, are suspects. There are hammer-headed bats in southeastern Guinea. It's possible that somebody killed one for food and brought it to Meliandou, where the child became infected either by direct contact with the bat or by virus passed on the hands of an adult.

Why are these facts and suppositions significant? Because they remind us that Ebola virus abides endemically in the forests of equatorial Africa. It will never be eradicated as long as those forests exist, unless the reservoir host itself is eradicated (not recommended) or cured of the viral infection (not likely possible). The virus may retire into its hiding place for years at a time, but eventually it will return, as a result of some disruptive contact by humans with the reservoir host. Then it will spill over into us again. All thinking and planning about how to defend against Ebola virus disease in the future needs to take account of that reality.



The Ebola virus, seen here through a scanning electron microscope, is mutating as cases increase, raising the odds that the virus could become more transmissible.
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You will have to read the excellent article for yourself for the mutation answer part.

Stopping this in Africa is exponentially more important than the minor outbreak in America....the science tells us that.

Please read the entire article, you will thank yourself tomorrow and be able to tell your co workers to read it if they are still being made afraid by the freakingly inept media.

And, really, having read this article, isn't the science far, far more interesting than the fear mongering, and more comforting than the politicians wild rantings? Science can do that.

Would't a sober discussion of the fascinating history of Ebola virus be as entertaining as all the hair on fire, entertaining as that always is?

Who will protect us from evil? The scientists or the politicians?

[kestrel91316]

1. Excellent article. People who haven't read it probably shouldn't

even be allowed to comment on Ebola on DU or FB or anywhere. It's that important.

[Fred Sanders]

2. I agree. Well written, factual, non political, non technical, historical....reads like a novel.

[distantearlywarning]

3. Great article. Thanks for posting.

I fully agree that addressing the West African outbreak is the most important thing we should be doing right now.

[Fred Sanders]

5. The Cubans understood the danger, to the world, and acted as they could, months ago...the

world could well owe Cuba a huge debt.

Dibs on the movie rights.

Just kidding, the Western capitalist world will ignore Cuba just as it does now.

[jeff47]

4. Actually, their mutation part isn't all that well done.

More infections does increase the chance of mutation causing it to become airborne. Just like buying 5 PowerBall tickets instead of 1 will make me 5 times more likely to win.

The problem is in both cases, the chances of such an occurrence is EXTREMELY low. Those extra 4 tickets don't mean I should expect to actually win.

As for mutation to become airborne, the chance of that is so low that is has never happened since we discovered viruses. Not "discovered ebolavirus" - discovered viruses. No virus has managed to mutate to change its mode of infection since we started studying them.

It's not mathematically impossible, just like it's not mathematically impossible that I'll be struck by lightning in the next 5 minutes. But it would be silly to be terrified of that lightning strike.

They talk about those odds....and then go on to talk about it as something to worry about.

[Fred Sanders]

7. From the article it is "astonishingly unlikely". Scientists just never say never, they are like that

[jeff47]

13. Yes, my complaint is they say it is so unlikely

and then spend a lot of time talking about it as something to worry about.

[MattBaggins]

10. That is so disappointing

So many legitimate media outlets pulling that crap.

EBOLA COULD MUTATE AND KILL US ALL AT ANY MOMENT....







But it's really really really unlikely... BUT IT COULD HAPPEN RAWRRRRR

[brooklynite]

6. Why should I read an intelligent article when I can panic over unfounded rumors?

[Fred Sanders]

8. Of course some folks will refuse to read the facts, preferring the free fear...better than a movie.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

9. There's another posibility that it could mutate into a less lethal strain...

Which would almost be worse because it would lessen the response.

[SheilaT]

12. That's exactly what small pox did.

Something most people don't know about.

In the late 19th century in either two or three different parts of the world, a new strain came into existence, known as variola minor. Variola major was the deadly one, killing anywhere from 20 to 60 percent of its victims. A large range, I know. It also caused terrible scarring in 65-85 percent of the survivors.

Variola minor, on the other hand, killed only about 1% of its victims, and didn't scar. It was in the process of replacing variola major mainly because if you got that form, you simply weren't as sick, especially in the early stages when you were infectious. People at that point could still move around easily, and so it spread very rapidly. Those who got the major version, were much sicker, and as a consequence outbreaks of that form tended to burn out more quickly.

[burrowowl]

11. K&R!!!!!

[kentuck]

14. Stop eating the fruit bats.

Might be a good start to educating the people. They have found the Ebola virus in these bats, also the "flying fox" bats.

[dembotoz]

15. kick

[countryjake]

16. kickety

[greatlaurel]

17. K and R

Good catch. Thanks for the link.

[blackspade]

18. K&R.

Bookmarked

[defacto7]

19. K & R for excellence!

n/t

[Warren DeMontague]

20. We need a working vaccine, and hopefully within a year or two we will have one.

We could have quite likely had one years ago, but there was no "motivation" (read: $$$$$) for the pharma companies to pursue it.

The real question is whether one can be brought into the field reliably and quickly enough to help with the current outbreak.