Dallas Ebola infection/incubation timeline 10.21.14

[morningfog]

Duncan's family and pre-isolation contacts have been cleared and are no longer on the timeline.

Days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8)......13 days -- 76 people provided care to Duncan before his death. As of today, two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, have shown symptoms and infection has been confirmed.

Days since Pham showed symptoms (Oct. 10).....11 days -- One person is being observed as having direct contact with Pham after she showed symptoms. She's being treated at NIH in Maryland.

Days since Vinson showed symptoms (Oct. 14)......7 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory.

______________________________________________________

The incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected.

Both Pham and Vinson were isolated when they had no symptoms other than a low-grade fever. Their viral load was low and it is unlikely they infected anyone prior to isolation.

The 74 other people in the same class/timeline as Pham and Vinson have passed through the most critical period, now at 13 days. If more post-isolation workers were infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms already. However, they do have another 8 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.

Pham's one pre-isolation contact is on their 11th day. They too are exiting the point were they would be most likely to show symptoms if infected. However, they do have 10 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.

Vinson's pre-isolation contacts are entering the critical period at 7 days now.

Pham and Vinson are being treated in centers who know what they are doing. It is unlikely any workers there will be infected, even if their current conditions deteriorate.

[ffr]

1. Interesting. Did you do all that research yourself?

Nice work.

[morningfog]

2. Yes. I've been following it and posting these timelines every couple days.

[TorchTheWitch]

3. we don't know when any of the hospital workers could have gotten infected

Your timeline is based on all the workers at the hospital where Mr. Duncan was being cared for were only possibly exposed all on the same day. According to the whistle blower nurse even when they got hazmat suits their necks were still exposed, garbage from caring for him was piling up, etc. Not even the CDC knows when or how either Pham or Vinson became infected. Since the virus become more virulent the sicker the patient gets it may even make more sense that because no one was disinfecting through the entire time of his care any of the workers may have been infected at any period between the time he was admitted to the hospital and whatever day it was that his body was removed and everything sterilized.

Quarantine days are counted from the date of last possible exposure. We don't have any idea what the last date of possible exposure may have been for any of the workers, nor do we know what day Pham and Vinson became infected.

The whistle blower nurse said she was one of the nurses that cared for Pham at the hospital until the day she was moved, and without proper precautions even then she and others that cared for her may have been exposed during that time.

Even the CDC has no idea who all may possibly have been exposed or when. They don't even know how or when the two infected nurses were exposed. Therefore it isn't possible to make up a timeline for even those two much less all the other workers that may have been exposed including those people that handled patient refuse, removal of the body, or from anything that may have been tracked from his room.

Full interview of whistle blower nurse from the Today show...
(scroll to bottom for video)
http://www.businessinsider.com/nurse-at-texas-health-presbyterian-speaks-about-ebola-crisis-2014-10

[morningfog]

7. For the workers, the timeline uses the last

possible day of exposure to Duncan, his death.

[uppityperson]

19. We do know the last possible exposure date to MrDuncan.

Directly, when he was creamated. Indirectly when the room was cleaned and the refuse burnt.

[pnwmom]

4. Pham and Vinson both became sick after the 7-10 day period.

So much for that statistic. Until the 21 days are over no one is in the clear.

[morningfog]

6. First of all, we don't know when they were infected.

It is more likely that it occurred during the final days of Duncan's life.

Second, I make clear that 21 days is the measure.

[pnwmom]

8. The CDC, if you believe them, thinks the infections occurred between Sept. 28 and 30.

Which means neither of the nurses developed the disease during the 7 - 10 day period you keep highlighting.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/10/15/ebola-stricken-nurse-flew-on-a-passenger-plane-a-day-before-being-diagnosed/

[morningfog]

10. They still had skin showing during DUncan's last days.

We don't know. It is more likely that it was later than earlier.

[pnwmom]

16. So in this case you've decided not to believe the CDC.

Well ,at least you're inconsistent.

[Logical]

21. Why does logic and facts seem to bother you? nt

[pnwmom]

25. I like logic and facts. I just haven't seen any in this thread from you.

Just unsupported assertions.

[Logical]

26. Which post did I say something you disagree with? Link please. nt

[pnwmom]

28. Post 26. n/t

[Logical]

30. I get it, nothing I said was wrong. You just like to whine. nt

[morningfog]

23. What the hell are you talking about?

The CDC doesn't know when the infection occurred. And they said that. Why do you think they have changed the protocol to require all skin to be covered? Because the infection could have (and most likely did) occur during the final days when the nurses had some skin exposed.

[pnwmom]

24. No,they believe the nurses got exposed in the EARLIEST days of hospitalization, not the last.

Frieden "suggested" it happened between Sept. 28 and 30 -- when the nurses had the most skin exposed. (One of the nurses actually said she had no protective gear on the 28th.)

"It is still unclear how, exactly, Pham and Vinson were infected with Ebola, but Frieden suggested on Wednesday that it occurred during the days after Duncan was admitted to the hospital and before the CDC team arrived. Duncan was placed in isolation at the hospital on Sunday, Sept. 28, and the CDC did not arrive until Tuesday, Sept. 30, the day Duncan was diagnosed. Pham and Vinson both cared for Duncan during these days and had “extensive contact” with Duncan, who was vomiting and had diarrhea, Frieden said."

[Logical]

29. LOL, "It is still unclear how, exactly, Pham and Vinson were infected with Ebola" means.....

NO ONE KNOWS WHEN!!!!!
Post your own damn timeline and quit whining.

[pnwmom]

32. And yet the head of the CDC thinks it happened then -- and it makes the most sense

because that's when the nurses weren't wearing full (or possibly any) protective gear.

[uppityperson]

35. FWIW, The nurses never wore full protective gear.

[Logical]

36. The CDC also says the mean time is 9-11 days but you don't believe that either apparently. nt

[morningfog]

34. And Pham and Vinson also had contact in the last

day or two of his life, and apparently with exposed skin. The infections could have occurred at any point from the 28th through the 8th.

[pnwmom]

8. self-delete (dupe)

[Logical]

33. LOL, the word "MOST" must be confusing you. nt

[LeftyMom]

5. Thank you for the thread. The people who thrive on fear will find reasons to panic anyhow.

But people who live in the real world appreciate somebody being level-headed about this.

[Avalux]

11. "The incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected."

Will you please provide a link to the source of this information? Thank you.

[morningfog]

12. There are more source, but I found these quickly:

Symptoms may appear anywhere from 2 to 21 days after exposure to Ebola, but the average is 8 to 10 days.http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/symptoms/index.html?s_cid=cs_4318

It has been three weeks since Thomas Eric Duncan was admitted to Texas Health Presbyterian Dallas hospital and tested positive for the deadly virus. The 48 people who interacted with him before he was hospitalized and who have been monitored are coming off a watch list this week, meaning they are no longer at risk of contracting the virus.

“It’s a critical weekend because when we look at this disease, 8 to 10 days after the exposure is the most likely time and it tapers off dramatically after 12 to 13 days,” said Judge Clay Jenkins, Dallas County’s top elected official, speaking Saturday outside the hospital where Mr. Duncan died Oct. 8. “We feel that if we get to Monday, we are in a much better probability place.”

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ebola-unease-hangs-over-dallas-1413755598

It's one of those important facts that are ignored by the media frenzy.

[morningfog]

13. And here:

STEPHAN MONROE: The second question has to do with the incubation period. The average incubation period is eight to ten days from exposure to onset of symptoms. The range is from two to 21 days.

http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/t0728-ebola.html

[Avalux]

14. Thank you. I would like you to revise your statement for accuracy.

The incubation period is from 2 to 21 days. Mostly likely time to symptoms is 8 to 10 days after exposure.

Nowhere is there a determination that the incubation for this strain is 7-10 days. I'm not sure how you came up with that.

I think it would be wise to revise your statement, because it could unintentionally mislead people.

[morningfog]

15. It is specific for this strain as well.

I'll try to find you a link. In this strain, most people show symptoms 7-10 days after exposure. As always, the incubation period could be as long as 21 days, but most are in the 7-10 day period.

[Avalux]

17. Ok, but that's now what you said. Read your statement, it doesn't match.

The incubation period is UP TO 21 days, regardless of on what day most people become symptomatic. The incubation period is not 7-10 days.

[morningfog]

22. It is what I said. In most infections is it 7-10 days. I go on to discuss the 21 day window.

[uppityperson]

18. Thanks again morningfog

[Logical]

20. Love these posts. Logic!! nt

[kestrel91316]

27. Not particularly relevant. The ONLY number you can take to the bank is 21 days.

Celebrating before then is called HUBRIS.

[morningfog]

31. No celebration here. Acknowledging the worst

Fear are increasingly unlikely. The 21 countdown is going. That we've dropped Duncan's pre-isolation contacts and the health workers who treated him are heading into their third week since exposure with no new infections is great news.

[Logical]

37. No more new cases is a BIG DEAL! How can you not understand that? nt

[kestrel91316]

38. I totally understand that and am greatly relieved. That said, NO WAY

anybody has any business crowing about this until we pass not just the 21-day mark from hospitalizing the last case, but the 42-day mark when the US is officially Ebola-free.

[Logical]

39. LOL, the virus does not know we are "crowing". And only TWO people have had it so far. And it is....

very possible they will be the only two with this outbreak.

You act like posting a timeline will cause the virus to get angry and spread faster.

A post on the DU will not cause more or less Ebola.

Calm the fuck down.

[AverageJoe90]

40. This was great news. =)

And it doesn't appear anything's changed.....