Expect the Unexpected: 5 U.S. Senate Races Where the National Media Is Probably Misreading Polls

[xchrom]

http://www.alternet.org/election-2014/expect-unexpected-5-us-senate-races-where-national-media-probably-misreading-polls



The time has come in 2014’s midterm elections to stop looking at polls and start looking at actual voter turnout figures—from absentee ballots already mailed in to early in-person voting. Those preliminary results reveal that many tightly contested U.S. Senate races are far too close to call.

National outlets such as the New York Times and the Washington Post are predicting that Republicans will emerge with a Senate majority once all the ballots are counted. But one of the nation’s best-respected voter-turnout experts, Michael P. McDonald of the University of Florida, says not so fast—and explains why.

In key states where the national media has reported that Republican Senate candidates have an early lead—such as in Iowa and Colorado—the momentum is now shifting to Democrat voters, McDonald said, in a detailed analysis that essentially said that Republicans have been voting earlier than Democrats but are seeing their numbers eroded by the escalating Democratic turnout.

“The Republican sweep screaming in the headlines is overblown,” he wrote. “Senate control is up for grabs and Democrats have a decent chance to defy the polls. I expect that the election will be so close that we won’t know who won until all ballots are counted and the vote is certified several days following the election, not to mention highly probable run-off elections in Georgia and Louisiana.”

[still_one]

1. The shrills are out in full force today talking about the "huge" repuke victory, and how it is all

about "Obama"

I will not be watching any news channel tonight, and probably won't for some time.

There is no doubt in my mind as bad as the MSM has been they will be even worse in the next two years no matter what the results are.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

2. you and me both

the rhetoric is over the top Time to catch up on Homeland and a chance to watch some old movies.

[ellenfl]

5. i have lots of recordings to catch up on. i don't think i can watch the pundits. eom

[still_one]

6. That is what DU and net flicks are for

[Fred Sanders]

3. Bookmarking for midnight...we will see, the voter turnout is everything, not in the models, polls

are not really polls anymore, they are predictive models. The media is purposely confusing the two.

In terms of reality this is Republicans holding a pair of 9's and Democratics A/Q., with a Joker thrown in for good measure in the deck....here comes the flop.........

The media and the GOP have not even tried to damp down enthusiasm...and when the bitter disappointment sets in again....

GOP will end the night with 48, Democrats 48, 2 Idependents, 2 Runoffs.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. What I've learned about elections over the years

You don't want to be on the side that's saying "The polls are wrong."

Just sayin', playa.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

7. "Misreading"??? How about "Mis-reporting"? nt

[Tuesday Afternoon]

8. ^this^