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LonePirate

(13,424 posts)
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:28 AM Nov 2014

Why did polling severely underestimate Repub performance?

How in the world did pretty much all of the late polling underestimate Republican support in this election, sometimes by close to double digit margins? McConnell won by what 15 points? Wasn't he only polling in the +5 range? Roberts looks like he is going to win by 10 points despite being slightly down in the polls. Crist somehow lost despite being ahead in most final polls. In pretty much every race, Republicans overperformed compared to the polls. How did they sway so many of the last minute deciders?

What happened to the polling this cycle?

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why did polling severely underestimate Repub performance? (Original Post) LonePirate Nov 2014 OP
What about the large turnout? Things look rigged upaloopa Nov 2014 #1
Large Republican turnout? lancer78 Nov 2014 #6
exactly J_J_ Nov 2014 #8
It feels like that to me. Blue_In_AK Nov 2014 #11
With Touch Screen voting machines, silly KatyB2U Nov 2014 #2
Lots of problems in North Carolina everywhere marions ghost Nov 2014 #4
What did she lose by, +/- 50,000 votes? Pretty easy to do, there are 100 counties nc4bo Nov 2014 #9
Exactly --"Santa's little helpers" marions ghost Nov 2014 #10
maybe they stole it MFM008 Nov 2014 #3
Hard to believe anything the GOP does is legit, after 2000 and 2004 Rex Nov 2014 #5
bad sampling. Puzzledtraveller Nov 2014 #7
 

J_J_

(1,213 posts)
8. exactly
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:35 AM
Nov 2014

Republicans are lying cheaters with no shame.

But why does everyone believe the bullshit?

Republicans have done nothing to earn any respect of votes, so if voters turned out it was to shut them up.

But the media says it is so, so people believe them even though all evidence points to fraud.

Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)
11. It feels like that to me.
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:43 AM
Nov 2014

It's so hard to imagine people re-electing Scott Walker and Rick Scott. I mean, what the hell.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
4. Lots of problems in North Carolina everywhere
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:33 AM
Nov 2014

WRAL Blog reporting Election Problems:

http://www.wral.com/blog-election-day-sees-many-voters-few-problems-in-nc/14144525/
-------

7 p.m.: The State Board of Elections is holding an emergency meeting to discuss requests from Johnston, Robeson and Lincoln counties to keep certain polls open beyond 7:30 p.m. because of problems earlier in the day.

A precinct in Maxton ran out of ballots and closed for about 45 minutes in the afternoon – only 500 ballots were provided to the precinct, which has about 2,500 registered voters, officials said – so 60 to 70 voters who showed up during that time were turned away. The state board voted to allow the precinct to stay open until 8:15 p.m.

A polling place was moved for a precinct in Clayton, but the state elections board website continued to show a photo of the old site. Precinct officials redirected voters to the new site, but some local advocates asked that the precinct remain open until 8 p.m. because of the confusion. The board rejected the request.

The board also rejected a proposal to keep the Bentonville precinct open until 9 p.m. because it opened late.

Lincoln County had a countywide power outage Tuesday morning, which delayed the opening of two polling places by 15 to 30 minutes. Two voters complained about the issue, but the board decided not to extend the voting time beyond 7:30 p.m.

5:15 p.m.: There have been sporadic reports of problems at individual precincts throughout the day, although state election officials say there are few signs of systematic problems thus far.

The biggest problems logged by the state have been in Johnston County, where the polling site at the Bentonville Community Building didn’t open until 8 a.m., an hour and a half after Election Day’s 6:30 a.m. start time. Josh Lawson, a spokesman for the board of elections, said roughly 70 people left the polling place without voting in the morning.

The State Board of Elections has the option extending the hours that polling place will be open beyond the normal 7:30 p.m. closing time, although they have not yet met to make that decision.

5 p.m.: Voting-rights group Advancement Project is reporting numerous problems with voting machines in Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), with one polling place being down for more than an hour. The group has asked county elections officials to extend voting hours at the site, but changes to state elections laws that the General Assembly passed last year require that the State Board of Elections approve any such extensions.

Read more at http://www.wral.com/blog-election-day-sees-many-voters-few-problems-in-nc/14144525/#PRtOhY4uBTcZRRcJ.99

nc4bo

(17,651 posts)
9. What did she lose by, +/- 50,000 votes? Pretty easy to do, there are 100 counties
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:36 AM
Nov 2014

in NC.

A few machines down here, a few voters left without voting there, a few ballot papers were too thick for the machine and had to be placed on the side and marked "special".

Easy to do but we'll never actually know for sure.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
10. Exactly --"Santa's little helpers"
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:42 AM
Nov 2014

---that's how they do it. General sloppiness, taking advantage of confusion, willful negligence, distortion. Spread out all around the place. Certainly enough to flip an election. I've seen it first-hand working elections.

Also the Elections Board should never be dominated by the party in power. It should be strictly non-partisan.

Add that to the tactics of voter suppression enacted by the legislature....

 

Rex

(65,616 posts)
5. Hard to believe anything the GOP does is legit, after 2000 and 2004
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:33 AM
Nov 2014

all their elections are suspect.

Puzzledtraveller

(5,937 posts)
7. bad sampling.
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 01:34 AM
Nov 2014

I think as a product, some polls have been trending toward oversampling to please their clients. The result can be disastrous as we may have witnessed tonight.

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