The Results Were Skewed Toward Republicans: A Response to Nate Silver

[BradBlog]

The Results Were Skewed Toward Republicans: A Response to Nate Silver

It's been happening for years now. On the day after elections like last Tuesday's, media figures begin navel gazing to figure out how pre-election polls, created by dozens of independent pollsters using dozens of different methodologies, could all find the same thing but turn out to be so wrong once the election results are in.

The presumption is that the results are always right, and if they don't match the polls, its the polls that must be wrong, as opposed to the results.

On Wednesday morning, after Tuesday's mid-term election surprise in which Republicans reportedly won handily in race after race despite pre-election polls almost unanimously predicting much closer races or outright Democratic victories, FiveThirtyEight statistics guru Nate Silver declared "The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats"...

FULL STORY: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=10929

[johnnyreb]

1. k&r

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Nate Silver doesn't understand situational influence

Not fully. That's why he wasn't prepared for the Republican avalanche.

Silver is a compiler who takes polls at face value and has a very sophisticated method of blending those poll numbers into an accurate percentagewise state of the race, if the polls are accurate.

Frankly, Nate Silver has taken money out of my pocket. Prior to his arrival, political betting odds were crude and wonderfully vulnerable. Favorites were simply too low if they had a consistent small edge in the polls. I could bet those candidates at 2/3 (-150) odds when they should have been closer to 1/8 (-800). Silver ruined that.

However, 2014 was a rare cycle in which Silver obviously wasn't prepared for the twin mingling of a Democratic president with a sustained low approval rating in the low 40s, combined with midterm realities in which too many of our key demographics don't show up. As a handicapper for 30 years I was well aware what would happen. The polls wouldn't depict how devastating it would be. I posted here Monday night that I had absolutely no energy because it was going to be a disaster since the party with the wind at its back would benefit from a late surge and pick off the vast majority of the toss up races.

We wouldn't have been in nearly as much jeopardy if Obama had maintained approval rating just a bit higher, like his 45 or 46 throughout summer and fall 2010. Once he's in the low 40s month after month it's identical to Clinton in fall 1994. That was the first midterm I bet politics heavily. The poll consensus meant nothing. The betting odds actually shifted somewhat to Democrats in the final days in 1994 because Clinton's approval rating ticked upward. I sensed it was meaningless and it was. Elections are dictated by foundational opinions, not late flimsy tide. That tide can carry a primary but not flip a general election if all the indicators point the other way for months and years.

Bush in 2006 had a disastrous approval rating, lower than Clinton in 1994 or Obama this year. Republicans aren't in as much peril in midterms because their older demographics participate dependably. We've become a party that specializes in presidential election years.

Polling can be rubbish. I've emphasized here since fall 2002 that Georgia and Alaska polling is incompetent, invariably overstating the support of the Democrat. This year we had high hopes in Georgia and Alaska. What a joke. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Nationwide the polling tends to be very accurate other than atypical cycles like this one in which the most important variables were tilted in one direction only. Again, I think my betting background helped prepare me for it. Once actual money is at stake you're forced to pay attention. Nate Silver follows betting but he's not dependent on it for his bottom line, as I am. Therefore he just accepts the polls and happily inserts them in his program, minus proper scrutiny.

[BlindTiresias]

3. Tinfoil hat nonsense

Yeah it was stolen. Doesn't this forum have rules against conspiracy theories?

[BradBlog]

4. Um...okay...Didn't read the article, eh? #Fail

Doesn't this forum have standards against uninformed commentary?

(But, of course, if you ever bother to actually read what yo'ure commenting on, I'm sure you'll let me know which part was "tinfoil". Thanks!)

[BlindTiresias]

5. I'm saying the voter suppression angle

Is a full on conspiracy theory manufactured to make Dems feel better about themselves regarding their humiliating kicking.

[BradBlog]

6. Ah, I see, you're a wingnut troll. I hadn't realized that. Apologies for having fed you...

But congrats on completely changing your criticism after your first one didn't work out!

[BlindTiresias]

7. Nope

But saying the loss was due entirely to voter suppression is a feel good cop out. Maybe some was, but as a solitary explanation? No, that is crazy talk.

[BradBlog]

8. Thx for confirming again that you didn't bother to read the article...

How many times are you going to fail on the same thread? And you're not embarrassed by that?

Impressive!

[BlindTiresias]

9. Yeah, excuse me

You say it wasn't a large conspiracy but say it could be a convergence of more limited smaller conspiracies. I remain unconvinced until some harder evidence is presented.

[LawDeeDah]

10. I note you speak outside of the democratic fold. 'them' 'their'

uh huh

[BlindTiresias]

12. Uh, yes?

I'm not part of the groups of dems saying this tinfoil hat BS, so my statements are going to place myself outside of that group.

[LawDeeDah]

13. so you don't think Republicans cheat however way they can?

it's just unimaginable! Especially when they have the media on their side of things. I know, I know, just crazy talk!

[BlindTiresias]

14. Not on the scale necessary to do this

I'm sure it happens in some marginal instances but without some hard evidence believing in that is just a feel good fairy tale.

[ucrdem]

15. They cheat every which way and if they could cheat in 50 states they would.

Wherever there's a GOP Secretary of State and/or Governor, they cheat wholesale. Count on it. I'm no expert but I could observe it on Tuesday night.

[LawDeeDah]

16. who says it feels good?

[ucrdem]

11. Brad I'm in total agreement on this one

but in defense of the other poster, I'm finding it very difficult to read the rest of your article as your blog front page keeps locking up my computer and I can't scroll past what you've already posted above. I have a slow DSL connection but even so I can usually manage to load a blog. Anyway K&R, I'll read it as soon as I can.