A Republican retirement opens up a swing seat in Pennsylvania
PA-08: Woohoo! We already have our first retirement in a competitive House district for the 2016 elections—and it's good news for the blue team. GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick had long promised to limit himself to four terms in Congress, and shortly after winning re-election last week, he reaffirmed his pledge. That opens up the swingy 8th District, which Barack Obama carried 53-46 in 2008 but lost by just one tenth of one percent in 2012, 49.4 to 49.3.
Republicans tried to shore up this suburban Philadelphia seat during the last round of redistricting, but they didn't make dramatic changes; under the old lines, Obama won in 2008 by a slightly wider 54-45 spread. That means this district will be hotly contested in two years' time, especially when Democrats can expect to receive a boost from presidential-year turnout.
So who can we expect to show up here? For Democrats, one intriguing option would be ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy (aka Patrick Murphy 1.0), who unseated Fitzpatrick in 2006 but lost to him in 2010. However, Murphy also lost a primary in the state attorney general's race in 2012, so with two straight losses, he may prefer to stick with his current gig as an attorney/MSNBC commentator for a while, especially since he's only 41.
Other possibilities include state Rep. Steve Santarsiero and 2014 candidate Shaughnessy Naughton. Naughton narrowly lost in the primary to Iraq vet Kevin Strouse, but Pennsylvania Democrats seem more excited about her future than his, especially after the 62-38 drubbing Strouse took at Fitzpatrick's hands on election night. As for Republicans, their most prominent potential candidate is outgoing Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley, who just got turned out of office along with Gov. Tom Corbett. Other potential GOP candidates include: Bucks County Commissioner Rob Loughery, state Rep. Scott Petri, and Sen. Chuck McIlhinney, who wouldn't have to give up his seat in order to run.
This is definitely going to be a top-tier race, so stay tuned to Daily Kos Elections as we cover this and every other competitive contest around the nation throughout the 2016 election cycle.