If The Supreme Court Reads This Study, It Could End Partisan Gerrymandering Forever

[applegrove]

If The Supreme Court Reads This Study, It Could End Partisan Gerrymandering Forever

by Ian Millhiser at Think Progress

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2014/12/01/3597643/this-study-could-end-the-worst-kinds-of-gerrymandering-if-the-supreme-court-took-the-time-to-read-it/

"SNIP..........................



Common sense dictates that the legislative maps that could produce such a result must be deeply flawed — and that they must be biased towards Republicans, the same party that controlled both houses of the state legislature when these maps were drawn (although the state had a Democratic governor at the time of the redistricting, the governor has no veto power over congressional maps). A new study by Duke Mathematics Professor Jonathan Mattingly and undergraduate Christy Vaughn seems to confirm this insight. Their study confirms that it is highly unlikely that a fair redistricting process would have produced a map as skewed towards one political party as North Carolina’s congressional map is.

Mattingly and Vaughn’s study redrew numerous random congressional maps, all of which complied with three rules: the districts must be “connected,” they must “come as close as possible to having [an] equal number of people,” and “they should be as compact as possible.” They then ran eight different simulations, some of which gave greater preferences to compact districts over equal population, while others placed greater emphasis on maintaining exact population. Seven of the eight simulations did not produce a single map where Democrats won less than five congressional seats, assuming that every voter who cast a vote for a Democrat or a Republican in 2012 would have cast the same vote under the simulated maps. The one simulation that did produce a handful of outlier maps where Democrats won only four seats did so “in less than 5% of the samples.”

Thus, the actual result of the 2012 elections — four Democratic congressional seats in North Carolina — did not even show up in all but one of Mattingly and Vaughn’s simulations. In the simulation where it did arise, it did so only in a few unusual cases. It is exceedingly unlikely that North Carolina’s GOP-friendly maps could have arisen organically. Rather, as Mattingly and Vaughn demonstrate, they are almost certainly the product of a legislature that carefully designed the maps to produce a desired result. The study’s authors argue that this result cries out for an independent check on redistricting — “The fact that the election outcomes are so dependent on the choice of redistrictings demonstrates the need for checks and balances to ensure that democracy is served when redistrictings are drawn and the election outcome is representative of the votes casted.”

Which brings us back to the Supreme Court. In the 2004 case Vieth v. Jubelirer, a total of four conservative justices joined an opinion by Justice Antonin Scalia arguing that federal courts should not get involved in partisan gerrymandering cases. The essence of Scalia’s argument in Vieth is that courts are simply unable to come up with a legally manageable standard for determining which gerrymanders cross the line when they become impermissible. According to Scalia, “no judicially discernible and manageable standards for adjudicating political gerrymandering claims have emerged.”




..........................SNIP"

[blkmusclmachine]

1. n/t

[zipplewrath]

2. Probably need to establish the methodology.

In order to sway a future court, one probably needs to develop a fairly robust process for this evaluation. I'd suspect that literally thousands of these permutations would have to be run and the results would have to be lower than 5%.

[Dont call me Shirley]

3. Do the 5 SC Deciders even read anything other than supportive of their opinion?

[0rganism]

4. the only way the SCOTUS would "end gerrymandering" as a result of this study

is if it showed that Republican gerrymandering somehow, systematically, helped Democrats win seats.

the SCOTUS as currently configured will regard this study as evidence for the absolute necessity of partisan gerrymandering.

[UTUSN]

5. The SCotUS *reads*?!1 nt

[mindwalker_i]

6. "Uh-huh-huh, uh, huh-huh-huh

You said 'read'."

I couldn't find a picture of Scalia photoshopped to look like Butt-Head.

[Takket]

7. If no standard is in place...

Then it is up to the congress to pass.... Oh... Forget it.

[JEFF9K]

8. If present trends continue ...

... we will have a non-Republican Supreme Court NEVER!