Why the Cuba Issue No Longer Cuts Against Democrats in Florida

[applegrove]

Why the Cuba Issue No Longer Cuts Against Democrats in Florida

by Nate Cohn at the NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/upshot/why-the-cuba-issue-no-longer-cuts-against-democrats-in-florida.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&abt=0002&abg=0&_r=0

"SNIP...................


The importance of small demographic groups is often overstated by political commentators. The Cuban-American vote is an exception.

Cuban-Americans represent a meaningful number of voters in a battleground state, Florida, that may be critical in the 2016 presidential election. Their political allegiances also seem to have shifted significantly toward Democrats in recent years, which raises the possibility that President Obama’s new policy could accelerate the shift — or undo parts of it.

Cuban-Americans, in short, are the rare small demographic group that could easily decide a presidential election.

..............

All of that changed over the past 10 years. The 2013 Pew survey showed that the Republican advantage among Cuban-Americans had dwindled to 3 percentage points, 47 to 44. The Florida exit poll in 2012 showed that Mr. Obama won the Cuban-American vote, 49 to 47 percent. Last month, the exit polling showed that Cuban-American voters supported the Democrat Charlie Crist, 50 to 46 percent, though he lost the governor’s race.


....................SNIP"