Today, I'm happy to be wrong

[Scootaloo]

For... well, years now, i have been saying that US foreign policy is an immovable brick. That it has really not undergone any serious changes since the Truman administration; even the fall of the Soviet Union simply moved 'terrorists" into all the talking points that 'communists" used to hold.

And for all these years, I've sadly been right. But today, I was proven wrong by President obama's declaration that we will be changing our policy towards Cuba. This has been a decades-long policy, so entrenched and cemented into the consciousness that i quite honestly could not have imagined even a Democratic president parting with it.

Part of me still demands cynicism, of course - one does not devour politics at my rate without developing a deep and hard cynical streak. I worry what an opening of Cuba might mean for its economy. Another part of me worries that the president knows this will be shot down by republicans in congres, and so this is all show and mirrors. I hope to be very wrong on that as well.

But. Right now, we are where we are, and where that is, is that the sitting US president has announced we will be normalizing relations with Cuba. This is a major shift in US policy, magnified perhaps by the fact that is even a de facto abandonment of the Monroe Doctrine.

And i'm happy to have been proven wrong today,m in my claims about the immobility of Us foreign policy.

Just wanted to put that out there before I head off for the evening. Thank you, president Obama, and best of wishes to our neighbors and friends, the Cuban people.

[Cali_Democrat]

1. It's a much needed change and it's very refreshing

Of course the Republicans are screaming bloody murder right now over the new Cuba policy, but that's to be expected.

They will oppose anything the black dude in the White House does.

[Basic LA]

2. Game changer

A huge & courageous step when you think of the generational intransigence on Cuban relations. I'm amazed by this. What next? (I have suggestions.)

[calimary]

4. Welcome to DU, Basic LA!

Glad you're here! It's a very glad moment for our country, and comes at a very welcome moment after the fiasco that has redefined America as a rogue nation of torture apologists. May just start rehabilitating us in the eyes of the world.

Well - maybe a little...

[Basic LA]

7. Thanks, calimary

It really is something. I'm old enough to have good memories of Gitmo when it was just a Navy base, & not a torture camp. It's a long time coming for the Cuban people.

[MannyGoldstein]

3. You continue to be

one of my favorite voices on DU.

Thanks.

[delrem]

5. Latin and South American countries have been excluding

the US and Canada from certain economic partnerships, one HUGE point of difference being Cuba, but there are others.

It's good to see that the US can be pressured into doing something sensible, that war isn't the only response the US is capable of.

[MADem]

9. Pressured? We've been trying to reach this accord for two years. It was the Pope that helped

nail it down. Our principal focus was getting Gross out. Everything else is icing.

What we get:

-Relations/communication with a near neighbor to the benefit of many US citizens of Cuban extraction, for starters--with more to follow--an embassy presence, sanctions easing (not lifted, easing for now), e.g..

-Alan Gross, plus an unnamed Cuban National (who will stay stateside) intelligence asset that has been held for 2 decades, PLUS the release of a bunch of Cuban political prisoners on humanitarian grounds (who will stay in Cuba).

What they get:

-The last three of the Cuban Five.

-Relations with a nation that is more reliable when push comes to shove, and will likely one day morph into a closer friend and ally (after Fidel dies)--probably a good bet for them as VZ is circling the pan economically and isn't as helpful as they once were, and Russia, who have been cheap and unwilling to pitch in since the fall of the USSR, is in no shape to help them out either.

-Props for compassion, as Gross was suicidal after five years in isolation and this is a great Chanukah gift to the Jewish groups that have lobbied incessantly for his release.

It's a win-win for everyone. The missing ingredient was a talented, ingratiating and pushy dealmaker, so two thumbs up to Francisco for bringing it on home.

[CrawlingChaos]

6. Completely understandable

We don't get many reasons to be optimistic - doesn't mean we don't hope for progress. I feel like you do though, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

[lovemydog]

8. Wow that awesome Scootaloo!

I've been wrapped in a bunch on nonsense today and haven't even read any news. So your post is the first I'm reading of it.

Your headline jumped out at me. I came here to say I'm often wrong too. And maybe that explains why I'm often happy.

Off to read the news.

[brush]

10. Acknowledgement also needs to made of the effectiveness of Obama's policies towards Russia

The sanctions, along with the fortuitous, and possibly manipulated, drop in oil prices has weakened Pootie Poot, considerably quieted his repug (and some DU admirers) and cratered the Russian economy, all without sending in troops and bombers on the fool's errand so loudly called for by the president's foreign policy bashers.

[Scootaloo]

14. "Cratering" another nation's economy is not a point of pride.

And it's a sorry example of a person who thinks it is.

[brush]

15. You can't be serious. You do know why the sanctions were initiated, right?

Last edited Thu Dec 18, 2014, 11:34 PM - Edit history (1)

Or did you forget.

Something about Russia taking Crimea from the Ukraine then invading eastern Ukraine, not exactly a point of pride either — forcibly annexing a province of a neighboring country then invading the country.

Should the world have done nothing about Putin's aggression?


Guess you were all for the troops and bombers, or did you want to just let annexing a large region of another country's territory go without consequences?

[Scootaloo]

16. Do you suppose putin and his cronies suffer greatly from this economic cratering?

Or do the common people of Russia suffer, while Putin continues being a wealthy motherfucker with no worries?

I don't know about you but I'm old enough to remember the last time Russia's economy "cratered." Yeltsin and his oligarch buddies kept living large, while the people of Russia found themselves back in bread lines, using candles and sticks for light and heat.

Sort of like those sanctions on Iraq - the Iraqi people became destitute and began dying of easily preventable illnesses... but Saddam didn't stop building palaces. His sons didn't stop getting their fancy cars and gold-plated weapons and tailored clothing.

Sanctions hammer the people least responsible, while bypassing those who caused the problem.

[brush]

17. So are you advocating troops and bombs or nothing at all?

Short of war, sanctions are sometimes the only actions that can be taken against bad actors on the international scene and the country suffers consequences — realpolitiks, it happens. But said bad actors usually lose in the end.

Yeltsin, Saddam — neither ended well.

[Scootaloo]

23. But sanctions don't work

Particularly when we're looking at regimes that don't care.

[okaawhatever]

24. They are designed to get the people to vote the offender out of office. With Russia that is an

option, unlike some other countries. I read that about 63% of Russia's military budget comes from oil sales. A drop in the price of oil will hopefully hurt his military ambitions more than it will hurt his people. These sanctions are targeted. They aren't to the level of Iran or Cuba. Also, the poorer people benefit from a drop in oil prices. There is a natural wealth shift when oil prices drop. Income goes from the wealthy and OPEC countries into the pockets of those purchasing oil all over the world. That is not exactly a bad thing.

Something else to think about, Russia was already facing an economic recession before the sanctions. Some speculate that the Ukraine/Crimea grab was done to distract the Russian people from the then-current economic state. from VOX news:

Many observers believe that Russia's involvement in the Ukraine was due in part to the slowing economy, as Putin whipped up nationalism and anti-Western fervor to distract from the stagnating economy. If that's right, then the strategy that Putin used to distract from the weakened economy has actually weakened the economy even further.

Russia, then, could risk getting caught in a vicious cycle, in which Putin's reactions to the bad economy trigger reactions from the West that hurt the economy even more.

Since taking power in 2000, Putin's power has been based on an implicit agreement with the Russian public, in which he delivers high economic growth, and in return Russians accept his government's abuses, which include corrupt cronyism and authoritarian crackdowns on civil and political rights.

When the economy began to slow, Putin needed to find something else to offer Russians in exchange for their political support — and the Ukraine crisis offered an obvious opportunity. Russian state media created a narrative in which the protests in Ukraine were really an American-backed plot to isolate Russia and terrify Ukraine's Russian-speaking population. In that story, Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for the eastern Ukraine rebel groups was a way of protecting Ukrainian self-determination in the face of western imperialism.

http://www.vox.com/2014/11/10/7175641/putin-russia-ruble-economy

[former9thward]

18. And how exactly have any of these actions

some of which had nothing to do with Obama, changed Russian actions. Where have they withdrawn?

[brush]

20. Let's see how it unfolds. You can't expect overnight results

What do you suggest, troops and bombs?

Or nothing at all?

[former9thward]

25. Nothing at all.

Since the end of the cold war we have expanded NATO to within 100 miles of St. Petersburg and 300 miles of Moscow. Russia is reacting to this expansion just as we would if the same thing was happening in North America. We have no business or interests there.

[brush]

27. Interesting perspective, . . .

however, we are not the only ones participating with the sanctions.

The Europeans are just as concerned with Russia's aggression, and with good reason since they are much closer geographically.

[countryjake]

11. kickety

[spanone]

12. k&r....

[Puglover]

13. K n R!

[former9thward]

19. "I worry what an opening of Cuba might mean for its economy."

The Cuban economy is shit. It can only improve. The island is full of extreme poverty. When I was there the average income was $75 a year. I doubt the Cuban people are worried at all.

[2banon]

21. No. You've been correct, it has been true. That there's been a significant development for the

improvement of relations is again, significant. Does not negate analysis of stagnation up to the present moment.

Personally, I'm very heartened by this surprising initiative and welcome it even knowing that Big Business can't wait to exploit the peoples interest there. I do fear negative impact in that regard. However, in terms being removed from the "enemies" list and all that implies, I'm hopeful.

[NCTraveler]

22. "I worry what an opening of Cuba might mean for its economy."

It can't hurt it. For most Cubans there is nowhere to go but up. Since it is very well know that the people don't live all that well economically, I am curious as to your comment. Why would your concern be that they stay in that position. Really doesn't make much sense. Their economy isn't something to really smile about.

You are dead on with your overall point. It is so nice to see what is happening and the Cuban people will benefit greatly. The poster above doesn't get that our sanctions against Russia are nothing new. It is how our government has reacted for ages. How they view sanctions as an overall policy shift is beyond me. This is good news about Cuba and is a common sense position to take. Something I feared had left every level of government policy.

[Louisiana1976]

26. I think that for the US to normalize relations with Cuba could only help that country's economy.

I agree about the Rethugs in Congress though--I wouldn't put it past them to block Obama's efforts at normalization for example by not lifting the trade embargo.