Any predictions on where unemployment will be in November?

[Quixote1818]

How about the economy in general? What is supposed to happen in Europe and how much will that effect us?

I was just looking at the leading economic indicators at Bloomberg and they look pretty good for the most part. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-19/index-of-leading-economic-indicators-in-the-u-dot-s-dot-climbed-0-dot-3-percent

Feel free to give your predictions. Just curious what others are thinking. Thanks

[cthulu2016]

1. Flat or .25-.5 higher than today

[Drunken Irishman]

2. 7.9 is my guess...

It's at 8.2 right now, right? It might rise to 8.3 next month, decrease to 8.1 by mid-summer and then dip to 7.9.

[Quixote1818]

4. Under 8 would be a good spot. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

5. The real story will be what it's at by mid-summer.

Because that's when perception is really created. It's a big reason why Bush won reelection because, by mid-summer, the economy was growing enough in 2004 that it created a new narrative that things were heading in the right directions. The polls, at this point, expanded in Bush's favor and only really narrowed when Kerry performed extremely well in the first debate.

So, I'd say the jobs report released in August (which would be July's) might give us an idea of where the race is heading. If unemployment continues to decrease, and potentially dips below 8% by summer, it will certainly create a narrative that things are improving at a healthy rate.

We'll see.

[CK_John]

3. Old saying sell in May and go away. What month were the greatest crashes in?

But not to worry, the economy and job stats have no real effect on elections, they are only cover stories for fear and hate. Elections depend on turnout!

[HopeHoops]

6. Still here.