Obama is leading by double digits on Young, Latino, blacks, Women but is tied with RMoney?

[uponit7771]

Somethin aint right...

This is not going to be a tight race,...keep RMoney from moving to the center by hanging the GOP dismal numbers around his neck and make him run from there fast

[TheWraith]

1. Only Gallup and others that oversample Republicans have them tied. nt

[libinnyandia]

2. Maybe they're adjusting for voter repression.

[Paul1973]

3. The only demographic that matters

Gender is the only demographic that matters. All other groups are are also either male or female. Women are 51% of voters. If a candidate wins women by double digits the other candidate would have to lead among men by an even greater margin to win.

The wild card is whether the right registered voters show up to vote.

[Art_from_Ark]

5. "Women are 51% of voters"

Does that mean "registered voters", or "actual/active voters"?

[Kaleva]

7. But one should break down the female vote by race too.

White women tend to vote for the Republican candidate. If I remember correctly, Bush won the white female vote in Illinois during the 2004 election. Now if Obama is polling better amongst white women then Gore and Kerry did in 2000 and 2004 respectively around this time of year, then things look bleak for Romney.

[provis99]

11. women are 51% of people, not 51% of voters.

old white men make up a disproportionate share of the voting electorate.

[Beartracks]

4. Step 1- Define narrative. Step 2- Find any poll to support narrative.

Step 3- If Step 2 produces no polls, substitute opinions in place of polling data.

=========================

[BigDemVoter]

6. I was wondering the same thing!

[neverforget]

8. I saw somewhere that some polls are using 2010 as the standard and not 2008 or a presidential

election year. IOW, they're sampling more Republicans like the 2010 election and not 2008

[Dawson Leery]

9. That is correct.

The corporate media needs a horse race for ratings. Also, most owners would prefer Mittens as the POTUS.

[Maraya1969]

10. Sometimes I wonder if they make the polls close just so people pay attention

If they are far apart for too long people will loose interest. Just a thought.

[uponit7771]

12. Me too, if this jig was up I wouldn't watch MSNBC or FAUX news as much