Why isn't Texas Blue and when will it turn Blue?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The demographics heavily favor the Democrats. African Americans, Latinos. and Asians are a majority there.

[unblock]

1. give it 10 years....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. With those demographics it should be Democratic now

TX Repugs must be getting around eighty percent of white voters.

[unblock]

3. institutions and voting patterns don't change the instant demographics do

people continue to vote for incumbents, the media continues to appeal to the power base, etc.

it takes a while but it will happen.

and yes, they are getting an enormous percentage of the white vote there. maybe not 80%, but scary nonetheless.

[HappyMe]

5. People are not monolithic globs.

Maybe people there tend to be more conservative.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. You do know we do have constituencies that could uncharitably be called "monolithic globs". /NT

[HappyMe]

8. I wasn't saying anything uncharitable.

I was merely pointing to your assumption that just because a person is black or hispanic, they would automatically vote for a Democratic candidate. People shouldn't be expected to always think the same way.

As I said, maybe people there tend to be more conservative. If they feel their representative is doing a good job, they vote incumbent.
Just as it would be ridiculous for me to suddenly vote republican, republicans probably think it would be ridiculous to vote democratic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. But people shouldn't be expected to vote for candidates inimical to their interests./NT

[HappyMe]

13. The fact is,

is that they don't think they are. They probably think Democrats are voting against their own interests.

I really don't think Texas is going to turn blue any time soon.

[Gothmog]

30. Democrats got around 22% of the white vote

Your numbers are very close

[Agnosticsherbet]

4. African Americans, Latinos and Asians do not vote as a block in Texas

And in the 2014 election, the gains Democrats made with latinos was not seen there, as this HoustonChronicle story shows. (Beware the Pay Wall.)

Texas Latino vote splits
WASHINGTON - The battle for Latino voters, a coveted prize of Texas politics, was fought to a virtual standstill in this week's midterm elections.

While Hispanics across the nation voted Democrat by a 2-1 margin on Tuesday, Republicans saw some promising trends, particularly in Texas, where Democrats have made Latinos a cornerstone of their strategy to turn the state "Blue."

Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn made a statement by winning 48 percent of the Latino vote, besting his Democratic opponent, David Alameel, who got 47 percent, according to exit polls.

Cornyn campaign manager Brendan Steinhauser, who made minority outreach a centerpiece of Cornyn's heavily favored re-election campaign, called the achievement "unprecedented."

So I don't think that we will see a blue Texas for some time, if ever.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Amazing how different they are from Latinos elsewhere...

It's ironic a Republican TX judge invalidated President Obama's executive amnesty order.

[BlueCaliDem]

11. Texas media is also pretty much pro-GOP. Hard to get a message out that the GOP is hurting them

and theirs when the media is nearly 100% pro-GOP in that State. Here's where Telemundo and other Spanish news broadcasts could help that demographic. The question is, why haven't they yet?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Very different than the Latinos I meet here in L A./NT

[BlueCaliDem]

16. True. Much different than all the Latinos I've met here in the Inland Empire, too.

They all hate Republicans. But for some strange reason, the antagonistic policies against Latinos by the GOP in Texas isn't getting to the people who would be most hurt by those policies.

Also, there are LOTS of voter suppression going on in Texas against the Latino community.

Anyway, here's an article that may explain why Latinos split their vote between Republicans and Democrats in Texas:
http://somos.blog.statesman.com/2014/11/05/four-takeaways-on-the-latino-vote-from-the-texas-elections/

[BlueCaliDem]

9. Put a Latino (Julian Castro, Sec. of HUD) on the top ticket in 2016 and Texas WILL turn blue.

You betcha!

According to the 2010 census, Mexican-Americans and other Latinos make up 38.1% of the Texas population. Whites still reign supreme at 40%. By 2016, I'm certain that's going to change in the Latino favor.

It's also why the GOP wants to push John Ellis Bush as their nominee - he speaks Spanish fluently and he's married to a Mexican-American woman.

Like it or not, Latinos are nationalists. Asians, not so much, Blacks, neither, but Mexicans, Guatemalans, El Salvadorians, etc, are nationalists - hence the stubbornness not to learn English but keep to the Spanish language - in all her dialects and forms no matter how long they've lived in the United States.

[HappyMe]

18. Calling people "stubborn" because they don't

want to only speak English isn't a way to get votes.

Texas isn't going blue any time soon. Castro wouldn't be enough for people to suddenly dump their party and go democratic.

[BlueCaliDem]

22. No, that's not what I said. Don't put your words into my post in order to change my meaning.

This is what I wrote:

Like it or not, Latinos are nationalists. Asians, not so much, Blacks, neither, but Mexicans, Guatemalans, El Salvadorians, etc, are nationalists - hence the stubbornness not to learn English but keep to the Spanish language - in all her dialects and forms no matter how long they've lived in the United States.

NOWHERE did I claim that they're stubborn because they won't speak English ONLY. That's what you make of it. I, myself, am bilingual in the sense that I read, write, and speak both English and Dutch so I'd never condemn others who speak more than one language.

There are plenty of Latinos who simply and stubbornly refuse to speak English because it's a personal choice they make. And they don't have to, since English (or the American version of) isn't a prerequisite to live in the United States. I know a few Latinos who have lived in this country for 20-35 years and who still don't speak a lick of English although their siblings do and they live, work, and raise families here. And if they can live a happy and fulfilling life without ever having to learn English, more power to them. Also, I'm not opposed to every American learning Spanish. Mastering more than one language is enriching for the brain, for one's life, and for our society. Our Founding Fathers - save George Washington and Abraham Lincoln - spoke more than two languages, so there it is.

That said...you should read this article entitled, Four Takeaways on the Latino Vote from the Texas Elections. It's an eyeopener.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. It's hard for some immigrants to learn the language.

But every Mexican I met who was born here or came here when they were young speak English.

[BlueCaliDem]

27. I know - although Spanish is a far more difficult language to learn than English, imo.

I know a few Mexicans and a couple of El Salvadorians who don't speak any English at all, but who have lived here most of their lives and raised families here. Good and decent people. Hard-working and kind people who love their families and this country and who possess an entrepreneurial spirit like you wouldn't believe! But they tell me that they don't have time to learn English because they work two or three jobs. So we communicate with a lot of hand-language - but it works!

Their children, by the way, are all bilingual and speak American-English like an all-American kid. I'm thinking of taking up conversational Spanish. It would make things easier for us.

[TexasMommaWithAHat]

41. Not all kids

A lot of children speak very little English because they don't have an opportunity to learn it. Their parents and extendeded families speak Spanish and all of their friends speak Spanish. If they go to school with a large hispanic population, they may be placed in a class with only Spanish-speaking children. I don't care how great the teacher is; she has an uphill battle.

I used to volunteer in my older kids' elementary school's bilingual classroom because most of the hispanic mothers did not volunteer. They had no way to get to school, or younger kids at home and no help, or were working. Or they didn't speak English and were afraid to volunteer.

When my younger kids attended elementary school, the school had no bilingual classes. Non-English speaking children were immersed into regular classrooms with a trained ESL teacher and were speaking fluent English by fifth grade. The difference in outcomes between the two schools was nothing short of remarkable.

And depressing to think about.

[BlueCaliDem]

50. Well, maybe not all but many. And family participation will speed up the process. My son is born in

the U.S. (second child, second son) but he was raised in The Netherlands from five months of age until he was eight years old. He only knew how to speak Dutch.

When we returned to live here again, there was no Dutch speaking ESL teacher so I was hired. My son was speaking, reading, and writing American-English within six months fluently. He still speaks Dutch, too, although not as well as he used to. He is learning conversational Spanish and Chinese. He has a Taiwanese girlfriend who speaks both Mandarin and Cantonese and who is, by profession, a teacher and she's teaching him.

So family participation is crucial in order to expedite the process, but all the Latino children I know, even the youngest ones, speak English and they even translate for their parents.

[Fumesucker]

43. English is one of the more difficult languages to speak well and idiomatically

English has a larger vocabulary than most languages and a great many words that aren't phonetic and a lot of homophones, hear, here, too, to, two and so on..

I can read Spanish out loud pretty well, it's a fairly phonetic language I learned a long time ago but most of my vocabulary is gone from disuse, I can't understand what I'm reading but a Spanish speaker will understand me.

[BlueCaliDem]

51. Believe me, Fumesucker, I know. I write novels so I know how vast the English vocabulary can be.

And how difficult it can be.

But I only mean that English is easier to learn in order to converse with one another in our day to day. Compared to Spanish, English is the easiest language to learn to read, write, and speak - especially American-English, imo. I've never had a problem with homophones, though. I don't know why that is. Anyway....

I envy you that you can read and speak Spanish. Although I can hear the subtle tone of regret in your words, I hope you'll take solace in the fact that you've forgotten more Spanish than I've learned.

[Fumesucker]

52. I knew an undocumented immigrant a while back..

He was illiterate in Spanish, couldn't speak English and I couldn't remember enough vocabulary to really converse so I would type what I wanted to say in Google and read him the Spanish, el caballero comprende bueno.. He understood well.

One of the weirder ways I've communicated with someone.

[BlueCaliDem]

53. LOL! Weirder? Nah. Creative? Yes!

Thank GOD for internet access on cell phones!

[Gothmog]

31. The Texas Democratic Party printed some Clinton/Castro 2016 bumperstickers over a year ago

I have at least one of these stickers. The TDP is hoping that a Castro will be on the ticket in 2016

[BlueCaliDem]

37. Let's hope we can put those to good use should Hillary Clinton decide to run.

If not, whoever the Democratic nom is, it would be wise for him/her to choose Secretary Castro as their running mate, because if not, and as I see things from here, John Ellis Bush is going to be the GOP nom and he will win in 2016 simply because he'll have the Latino vote locked up the moment he touts his wife and does it in fluent Spanish, too. Governor Abbot did the same thing. His wife is Mexican-American and he used his mother-in-law - and siphoned votes away from Wendy Davis.

As any successful salesperson will tell you, know your customers' wants and needs!

[former9thward]

40. That will not happen.

Rs have a million vote margin in elections in TX. Castro would not change it that much.

[BlueCaliDem]

49. Or so you hope, former9thward. eom

[former9thward]

57. I deal in reality.

You may differ.

[BlueCaliDem]

59. Reality?? Uh, no. In this case, it's clearly wishful thinking.

You may disagree but, well, who cares.

[Bucky]

14. Democrats have highly favorable demographics among Texans who don't vote.

Forget the "in ten years" malarkey. Barring a major realignment, we will not be able to flip this state over the next 3 election cycles.

[BlueCaliDem]

25. Give them a reason to. When Pres. Obama postponed his immigration e.o. until after the elections

(which was asked of him by Democrats in the Senate) it pissed off the Latino community.

Forty-three percent of non-voting Latinos nationwide said the Democratic Party expects Hispanics to vote for them but is unwilling to take political risks or take a stand on behalf of immigrants. Republicans didn’t fare any better. Forty-eight percent of non-voting Hispanics said the Republican Party has become so anti-immigrant and anti-Latino that it would be hard for them to consider supporting them.
http://somos.blog.statesman.com/2014/11/05/four-takeaways-on-the-latino-vote-from-the-texas-elections/

The number ONE issue for Latinos to come out to vote is still immigration reform. It's not because they believe Latinos should be crossing the border and have the privilege of being Americans the moment they do - most Latinos I know dislike that border-crossing as much as others - but it's seen as a show of respect for their demographic. Democrats punted that issue last year and Latinos decided not to turn out for them. Otherwise, we could've had a Texas Governor Wendy Davis and Democratic Senator Alameel.

From the same article at the link above:

But lack of movement on immigration at the federal and local level seems to have discouraged Latinos from voting. Ten percent of Latinos nationwide who did not vote said they were not doing so because they were “frustrated that nobody is addressing the issues I care about.” Sixty percent responded that they had become less enthusiastic about voting after President Barack Obama decided not to follow through on an executive order on immigration reform he said he would make this summer. Conversely, an earlier Latino Decisions poll showed that 59 percent of Latino Texans in 2012 responded they were more enthusiastic about voting for Obama after he approved the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

[Gothmog]

32. I agree that delaying immigration executive action was a mistake

I totally agree with your post. Delaying immigration action was a major mistake. The blue state senators wanted this delayed and they all lost. I think that Democratic turnout would have been helped if the immigration executive action was announed on labor day as originally planned.

[BlueCaliDem]

35. It's just a show of respect for their demographic. Show them this, and they will fight hard for you.

I know this about Latinos. Just show them respect. It's a big thing within their culture. Huge even. And they felt as if President Obama had betrayed them. I understand why he postponed that e.o., but he should have NEVER done it after he'd come out and promised he'd sign an E.O. on Labor Day. He should've listened to the Latino community.

[Sunlei]

15. Not the way the USA speeds toward a 2 class society, the wall is to high.

[abakan]

17. Because everything is bigger in Texas

Even their stupid.

[Paladin]

19. I think your sole aim here was to start yet another Texas-bashing thread.

Is the Lone Star State not making sufficient progress, in line with your personal timetable? Welcome to the fucking crowd, pal. Take a number, get in line, maybe think about doing something constructive about the problem......

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. NM, CO, AZ, NV, CA, and FL are all blue or purple...

And a lot of that has to do with the growing Latino-American population.

I am trying t learn what makes TX different.

[Paladin]

21. I stand by and confirm my earlier statement about your motives, here. (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. You are free to be wrong and egregiously wrong at that. (nt)

[Gothmog]

34. I do not take this thread as Texas bashing

I am very active with my local party and the Harris County party on a number of issues. The questions being asked on this thread are questions that Texas Democrats are also asking. Texas democrats have been looking for some way to motivate Hispanic voters.

I was very active on the voter id issue and voter protection this cycle and I know that the Texas voter id law worked as intended. The Texas voter id case is being appealed to the 5th Cir. and the State of Texas' brief was really weak in my opinion. I was also amused to see that the State of Wisconsin brief to the SCOTUS on cert in the Wisconsin voter id case spent more than a page arguing that the Texas case was a better case for the SCOTUS to take than the Wisconsin law. I fully expect that parts of the Texas decision stricking down the Texas voter id laww to be affirmed by the 5th Cir. (the poll tax issue is a very easy issue for the 5th Cir to rule on).

On the postive side, the emergence of Hispanic leaders like the Castro brothers have helped. In addition, the new Texas Lt. Governor is a racist nut case who may motivate Hispanic voters with sanctury city nonsense. I would love to see a Castro brother on the national ticked in 2016. Given the nuttiness of the GOP on the immigration issue, the national party needs to reach out to Hispanic voters and take advantage of the GOP racism towards Hispanics. Judge Hinojosa has been a great Chairman of the TDP and we are making progress.

Bottomline, is that I am not stopping my efforts to turn Texas blue despite the results of the 2014 election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Why would I hate Texas?

I lived in FL and as the Latino population grew the Democratic party's fortunes at least in presidential election years grew as well...

Same for CO, NV, CA, and NM


If I were a Latino who leaned or was Republican and I saw a Republican judge invalidate President Obama's executive amnesty order I would re-evaluate my position.

[Faux pas]

26. Gerrymandering?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/texas-gerrymandering/

[betterdemsonly]

28. Don't think it will

in our lifetimes. It has a weak labor movement and more evangelicals than California. Also hispanics in red states are self identifying white so they are becoming like White ethnic Americans. 50 percent of hispanic men in Texas voted for Abbott. 2nd generation hispanics often become anti-immigrant because they don't want competition for jobs.

[Gothmog]

29. Two reasons (i) Texas has a low voter participation rate and (ii) GOP voter suppression tactics

According to Paul Begala, Texas is not a red state http://www.collindemocrats.org/texas-isnt-a-red-state-its-a-non-voting-state/

“Texas isn’t a Red State, it’s a non-voting state”
~ Paul Begala @ BattlegroundTX (#BGTX) fundraiser, Austin, Texas – Jun 22, 2013

If Hispanics voted in Texas at the same percentages as Hispanic voters in California, Texas would be blue http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/local-politics/20141101-latino-voters-arent-likely-to-sway-election-outcome.ece

Texas is less red than some people think, he said. “There’s an undercurrent of support that would take Texas in a different direction.”

Gary Segura, a Stanford University political science professor and partner in the polling firm Latino Decisions in California, agreed and went further.

“It’s blue now,” he said this week. “If Latinos turned out at the same rate as white voters, the state would already be electing Democrats.”

The majority of the voting-age population is Democrat, he said. “But neither party is investing in the Latino vote.”

The Texas GOP has been great at keeping Hispanic voter turnout low with barriers to voting and gerrymandered districts that make it hard for Hispanics to elect Hispanics to elected office. In addition, the GOP is pushing a voter suppression plan that clearly suppressed the vote in 2014. IN 2014, GOP votes for Governor increased while votes for the Democratic candidates were down



The judge in the Texas voter id trial found that the Texas voter id law would affect between 600,000 registered and 1.4 million eligible voters. The above chart is consistent with this finding.

[onenote]

33. Why isn't Vermont Red and when will it turn Red?

African Americans, Latinos, and Asians are a very small minority there.


See what happens when you generalize and stereotype?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. We know from exit polls how every demographic votes

I can almost recite the numbers from the 012 election from my head. That's why they collect the data.


It has nothing to do with stereotypes.

[onenote]

46. If you know the exit polls then you know the answer to your question

Exit polls in 2014 showed that male Latino voters favored Abbott over Davis by a 50-49 margin and Asian American voters favored Abbott as well.
That's the thing -- there are regional differences, not just racial/ethnic differences.

White voters in Vermont? Predominantly vote Democratic
White voters in Texas? Predominantly vote Republican

African American voters remain a very consistent Democratic constituencies, but Latino and Asian American voters are more divided.

And that's why Texas, despite having a "minority" white population is still strongly Republican.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. In 012 President Obama was over ninety percent with African Americans...

In 012 President Obama was over ninety percent with African Americans and right around seventy percent with Asians, Latinos, and Jews.* If we can reach those numbers in TX we would be in better shape there.




*nationwide

[onenote]

48. And Wendy Davis was over 90 percent with African Americans

But the numbers for Latinos and Asian-Americans, like the numbers for whites, are more susceptible to regional variation. So, yes, if we could get to President Obama's nationwide numbers in Texas we'd do better there. Of course, if we could get to Vermont's white voter numbers in Texas, we'd also do better there.

The former is more achievable than the latter, but its not a slam dunk. It would be interesting to see the 2012 exit polls for Texas in the Presidential race, but there aren't any apparently. We do know that 35 percent of the Latino vote went to McCain in Texas in 2008, a few points better than McCain did with the Latino vote nationally.

[Erose999]

36. The numbers may favor Dems, but the DISTRICTS favor the GOOP. I think they will do everything they

can to hold on and be an obstruction all the way down to the local county commissioners.

[Gothmog]

38. The redistricting trial is still proceeding

I am hopeful that there will be some relief from the gerrymandered districts crammed down on us by the Texas GOP. I like the concept that the DNC is already planning to make a dent in the number of state house republicans for the 2020 census

[Egnever]

55. This ^^^

You nailed it.

[hobbit709]

39. Gerrymandering, massive voter suppression, lack of any real help at the national level.

The National Democratic Leadership comes to TX, raises bunches of money but won't pour any back into the state. Sometimes it seems like the clowns in DC have written us off except as a money source.

[daredtowork]

42. They also suck a lot of big business there

On the basis of hostility to unions and weak labor law. Disabled friends tell me social services are week to hostile withthe public hostile to potential "malingerers". Moreover, the propaganda of Democrats as elitists seems unbreakable there. The average Fox Facts Texan is convinced that Democrats "do not listen" rather than GOP ideas might be wrong. They are certainly convinced that California, with all its spending on social programs is going to hell in a handbasket, and the proof is that they were able to steal big businesses from us and employee people. ( at non-unionized minimum wage…)

Evan "liberal" Austin isn't about to get behind a social justice platform. Their strategy for the Latin community is to divide and conquer with "good Latinos" turning Republican for social connections, business tax issues, and abortion/marriage issues. They will embrace their own success and shut the door on immigrant issues that no longer help their own families.

[TexasTowelie]

54. Today would have been the day

if I had gone bike riding without wearing any pants or underwear.

My fingers felt like they were frostbitten so one can only imagine about the nether region.

[Recursion]

56. Purple in a decade, blue in two, if I had to guess (nt)

[alp227]

58. Texas actually USED to be a blue state.

Reflects in the fact that Rick Perry was a Democrat in the '80s, then flipped to Republican in 1989. And from Reconstruction to the 1980s, Texas like other southern states were reliable for sending Democrats to governorships and Congressional seats.

The election of Bill Clements for governor in 1978 was the first time a Republican won the governorship in nearly 100 years. The next Democrats to win gubernatorial elections in Texas, Mark White (1982) and Ann Richards (1990), lasted only one term each.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Texas

[geek tragedy]

60. Latinos vote in very low numbers there, and white Texans are extremely

rightwing.

Don't hold your breath.

[pstokely]

61. It won't turn blue overnight, it will turn blue when those demographics can be mobilized

voter registration is low there

[LynneSin]

62. This is why

Gerrymandering.

Nuff said.

And thanks to Gerrymandering it creates voter ID and voter havoc that many democratic voters just can't even get to the polls.