Tables turning on majority-white voter populations

[bigtree]

from WaPo:


The states where white voters will soon be outnumbered, in 1 chart



“The scale of race-ethnic transformation in the United States is stunning,” the authors note in the opening to their paper. The white share of the population was 80 percent in 1980. It’s 63 percent today. And, by 2060, it is projected to be 44 percent.

The political implications of that shift can’t be overstated. The Fix’s Chris Cillizza summed it up simply last summer as a “demographic time bomb” for the Republican party: “The GOP is getting whiter and whiter in terms of the voters it attracts even as the country is growing increasingly diverse.”

As it stands, the overall population in four states — Hawaii, New Mexico, California and Texas — is already majority-minority. Another 10 states will join before the nation makes the switch in 2044, according to the report.

But what matters more, politically, is when the voting population makes that shift. Nationwide, that will happen in 2052, by which point a dozen states will have already crossed that threshold, the group estimates. During the 2030′s, five states will make the switch. They are, in order, Nevada, Maryland, Georgia, Alaska and Arizona. Then New Jersey, Florida, New York and Louisiana will join them in the following decade.

The report’s projections stop at 2060, by which point 21 states will have majority-minority voting populations and 22 states will have majority-minority populations overall. But more states will no doubt follow — by then, another 10 states will be at least 40 percent minority.

read: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2015/02/24/the-states-where-white-voters-will-soon-be-outnumbered-in-1-chart/?tid=sm_tw

[annabanana]

1. And the only people who are really worried about this are those

who mistreated and marginalized the "minorities" while they could. They are convinced that any that come to a majority after them will behave just as badly

[bigtree]

2. it's been ever thus

...from the time of 'emancipation;' to reconstruction; to Jim Crow; to the Voting Rights Act.

Of course, many of the new majority-minority populations are Latino and Asian, Asian Pacific.

[Skittles]

49. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

YOU'RE DELUSIONAL!!! Stop watching Fox News - IT MAKES YOU STUPID

[valerief]

3. Only one way to "fix" this. Put black men in prison and take away the female vote.

See? I can think like an agent of the oligarchs.

[bigtree]

4. photo ID; restrictions on how and when people are permitted to register;

...cutting duration of early voting; eliminating early voting on nights and weekends; ending same-day registration; prohibiting the counting of provisional ballots cast in the wrong precinct

[raccoon]

56. You got that right. Also, pull a Katherine Harris. nt

[madville]

5. I see some additional viable political parties emerging

The Democratic Party should be careful not to take these demographic changes for granted. Imagine a viable, mostly Hispanic political party emerging in the next 20 or 30 years. They run candidates in statewide elections, say California. The Hispanic Party candidate gets 30%, the Democrat gets 30% and the Republican gets 35%.

Kind of like the old saying, "Be careful what you wish for".

[bigtree]

7. that might well work in statewide elections

...national contests still need coalition politics. I personally think the competition might be warranted for Latino voters, in some instances where the Democratic party fails to address their particular concerns. Still, in the scenario you describe there will be a need for alliances between potential parties and Democrats to overcome any republican edge or advantage.

[madville]

11. It could affect a Presidential election as well

It's not hard to imagine (decades from now) a third or fourth party gaining traction at the national level. Enough to peel away 10-20% percent from Democrats could easily hand power back to the Republican Party in that scenario.

I've seen those bastards lose too many times and everyone celebrate about how they are finished then bam!, they currently have their largest majority ever in the House and took back the Senate.

[AgingAmerican]

15. That is because

The Democratic apparatus decided to go right wing, with easily predictable results. They will stupidly think they didn't go right wing enough and lurch even further into the abyss. Nothing will change in our current political system.

[bigtree]

18. I still don't see today's republican party

...concerned with anything overcoming their unbelievably myopic bigotry.

[ND-Dem]

19. most poor whites vote democratic too. richer folks vote republican, regardless of race, with blacks

being a notable exception generally.

but that's changing too, I think.

[Fumesucker]

6. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see better off minority groups voting Republican

Dinesh D'Souza and Bobby Jindal come to mind, we have quite a few people of Indian or Pakistani extraction around here and they seem to run towards social and economic conservative from what I've seen.

[bigtree]

8. heh

...you can count on today's republican party to turn them off. It will take decades, if ever, for republicans to shake their xenophobia and bigotry which is the basis for most of their political appeals.

[Fumesucker]

9. In upper class high income circles you don't see that nearly as much..

Not everyone understands what the dog whistles of Republican politics are actually saying, not by a long shot.

I thought of another one, Nikki Haley is Gov of SC and of Indian extraction... South Carolina is about as racist as it gets.

And Jindal is governor of Louisiana..

[bigtree]

10. well, you need to consider what the demographics are in that income bracket

...not exactly upper income majorities in most US minority populations.

The annual buying power of the Indian-American community is among the highest per capita (per household) of all ethnic groups

Due to their higher levels of education, Indian-Americans have also become one of the highest earning immigrant groups in the U.S. Because they are located in urban areas and have greater number of wage-earners per household, the community has a considerably higher median income.
http://www.usinpac.com/indian-american-demographics/income-levels


wiki:

Asian Americans enjoyed higher median personal incomes than any other racial demographic. Asian Americans had a median income roughly ten percent higher than that of Whites The only exception was among the holders of graduate degrees who consititute 8.9% of the population. Among those with a Master's, Professional or Doctorate degree those who identified as White had the highest median individual income.. This racial income gap was relatively small.

Those identifying as Hispanic or Latino (who may have been of any "race&quot had the lowest overall median personal income, earning 28.51% less than Whites and 35% less than Asian Americans. The second largest racial or ethnic gap was between Whites and African Americans with the former earning roughly 22% more than the latter. Thus one can observe a significant discrepancy with the median income of Asians and Whites and that of African Americans and Hispanics.

Overall the race gap between African Americans and Whites has remained roughly equal between both races over the past decade. Both races saw a gain in median income between 1996 and 2006, with the income growth among African Americans slightly outpacing that of Whites. In 1996 the median income for Whites was $5,957 (31%) higher than for Blacks. In 2006 the gap in median incomes was nearly identical with the median income for Whites being $5,929 (22%) higher than that for African Americans. While the gap remains numerically unchanged, the percentage difference between the two races has decreased as a result of mutual increases in median personal income. Measuring income by per capita is another way to look at personal earnings by race. Unlike median statistics, per capita statistics are affected by extremely high and low incomes. According to the U.S Census Bureau "The per capita income for the overall population in 2008 was $26,964; for non-Hispanic Whites, it was $31,313; for Blacks, it was $18,406; for Asians, it was $30,292; and for Hispanics(median of all races within group), it was $15,674".

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States

[Fumesucker]

14. That's changing I think..

Indians and Asians are moving up the wealth ladder quickly, those allowed permanent resident status and therefore likely to become citizens have to bring significant resources and are usually well educated.

I wouldn't count on racial demographics to lead to a liberal paradise. It wasn't all that long ago, within my lifetime, that Irish and Italians weren't really considered white.

[madville]

12. We aren't talking about today's Republicans

We're talking 2-3 decades from now. The question is do they go left or right? It's a toss up and they will reinvent themselves or split up and regroup, nothing is constant.

[ND-Dem]

13. of course they'll vote republican if they have any money. and since the democrats aren't

doing a lot for the bottom half of the income distribution, forget about the strong democratic reservoirs of the past.

you won't get a democratic majority just by appealing to 'race pride.' that only works if people get a side of bread and butter with it.

[bigtree]

17. well, I don't think the issues are about 'race-pride'

...immigration, education, health, housing, social recognition, bilingual issues are all in dispute with republicans

[ND-Dem]

20. economics trumps all; and education, health, housing, and social recognition all revolve

around economics.

[bigtree]

21. not every ethnic group regards economics as the most important consideration

...Jewish voters still identify overwhelmingly with the Democratic party, for example.

Republicans do everything they can to alienate voters; especially with issues important to many of the key ethnic groups.

[ND-Dem]

22. One way or another, they (we) all do.

[LiberalElite]

16. NYC is majority minority now

http://mycrains.crainsnewyork.com/stats-and-the-city/2013/demographics/racial-breakdown-1

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

23. But more Hispanics are identifying themselves "white"

The researchers found that 2.5 million Americans of Hispanic origin, or approximately 7 percent of the 35 million Americans of Hispanic origin in 2000, changed their race from “some other race” in 2000 to “white” in 2010. An additional 1.3 million people switched in the other direction. A noteworthy but unspecified share of the change came from children who weren’t old enough to fill out a form in 2000, but chose for themselves in 2010.

<snip>

The data also call into question whether America is destined to become a so-called minority-majority nation, where whites represent a minority of the nation’s population. Those projections assume that Hispanics aren’t white, but if Hispanics ultimately identify as white Americans, then whites will remain the majority for the foreseeable future.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/upshot/more-hispanics-declaring-themselves-white.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

[Skittles]

30. careful

you'll be accused of MINIMIZING and DEFLECTING

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

31. lol I saw

[Skittles]

32. hard to argue when people miss the point so entirely

apparently "women" doesn't include any minorities

[Skittles]

24. "majority-minority" sounds a bit ridiculous

[bigtree]

25. yeah

...that's important

[Skittles]

26. it's just a fucking comment

sheesh

and by the way, women are the majority in the country yet we've never even seen a female president

[Skittles]

29. LOLOL

OMG

you top even yourself!!!

[Skittles]

42. OMG aren't YOU a treat

now go back to the freak republic where people like you are APPRECIATED

[Skittles]

47. OOH OOH

are you humping your gun while you say that?

[bravenak]

54. I wish you had a job.

[Cha]

28. Kick

[Comrade Grumpy]

33. This wouldn't seem to bode well for the Republican Party in particular.

If your base is angry, older white people, you need to be finding some new blood. And the racist, xenophobic current runs too strong in the GOP to be able to do much of that.

[bigtree]

35. yep

...their bigoted base seems to run about 40-45% of the vote in national elections. Their xenophobia and racism are so ingrained in today's republicans that it trumps all else, even in support of many of their own stated interests. Their hatred runs so strong in them that their distortions, delusions on issues like race, evolution, education, healthcare, etc. suffice to support their sense of privilege. They just can't help themselves.

[Skittles]

46. why do you cowards only come out at night?

seriously, why?

[bravenak]

53. Wow.

[marble falls]

58. It shard to believe anyone that stupid can figure out how to create new accounts to keep getting....

back on DU. I am thankful you stay here in spite of the stupidity of others.

[marble falls]

57. Third shift at Circle K?

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

34. Emerging Democratic majority may never happen

My guess is that Mexican-Americans, a major Latino group, will vote more like Irish- and Italian-Americans than African-Americans. Moreover, as in the case of European-American ethnics, the ethnicity of Mexican-Americans, outside of heavily immigrant enclaves, may become attenuated pretty quickly.

<snip>

One result of Latino assimilation may be the collapse of the very idea of a “nonwhite majority” except as a meaningless statistical category. Already a majority of Latinos identify themselves as “white” when given the option on census forms. As I argued in a 1996 New York Times Magazine essay, “The Beige and the Black,” because of the depth of anti-black racism in the U.S., America’s informal racial caste consciousness has always been binary—not whites vs. nonwhites, but blacks vs. non-blacks. The “white” category has been an elastic one that has expanded to incorporate successive non-black immigrant groups—first European “ethnics” and in the future, perhaps, Latinos and Asian-Americans.

http://www.salon.com/2015/02/17/doomed_by_the_south_why_the_emerging_democratic_majority_may_never_happen/

[joshcryer]

45. It's always going to be about class stratification.

A lot of Mexican-Americans are doing quite well for themselves, and they may identify more with the upper class whites than they do with their lower class worker types.

[Skittles]

44. FUCK OFF, racist asshole

[Skittles]

50. AW YOU'RE SUCH A VICTIM!!!!!!

YOU POOR THING!!!!!!!!!!