Yup, the GOP is f'd with young people

[eridani]

What struck me, but was not mentioned in the diary, was the total absence of a generational divide among Democrats.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/26/1367093/-Yup-the-GOP-is-f-d-with-young-people



This isn't self-IDd ideology. Pew "used a scale based on 10 political values questions about the role of government, the environment, homosexuality and other issues to measure ideological consistency." The results are clear: on the issues, liberalism is ascendant.

The obvious bottom line: the GOP is totally screwed if it doesn't learn how to court young voters. Yet here is the CPAC session today on reaching out to young voters: Yeah, good luck with that, particularly when your message is one of bigotry, higher student loan fees, and outright hostility to sex.

But there's more! You can see the GOP's death spiral in action, as each successive generation is less Republican, and more Democratic, than the previous one. That's demographic destiny, and while it doesn't guarantee progressive governance in the future, it means our job is much easier than theirs.

This chart also shows the death of the conservative Democrat, down to three percent of millennials. And what is that, a resurgence of the liberal Republican? A surprising 17 percent of Republican millennials are "mostly liberal."

[Bagsgroove]

1. "Liberal" Republicans

A surprising 17 percent of Republican millennials are "mostly liberal."

My guess is that those Republicans who are calling themselves "liberal" are libertarian types. They may be Republican-conservative on economic issues--taxes, business regulation and the like--but on social issues like marriage equality or abortion or foreign military intervention their views are what would usually be considered "liberal."

This is the dilemma Republicans face in presidential elections. To be nominated they need to appeal to the aging, old-line, mostly southern "This-is-a-Christian-country" type base, then after they're nominated they look ridiculous to the broader electorate. Many younger voters might be attracted to the "small government" economic policies, yet can't bring themselves to pull the lever for a candidate who has been spouting bigotry about their gay friends or calling evolution "just a theory."

Does anybody remember the pained--almost panicked--look on Mitt Romney's face when he was asked during the 2012 campaign if he believed in evolution? To any moderately well educated young person, including economically conservative young people, the "Well I don't claim to know how God did it" answer was laughable.

[1StrongBlackMan]

13. I suspectyou are correct ...

My guess is that those Republicans who are calling themselves "liberal" are libertarian types. They may be Republican-conservative on economic issues--taxes, business regulation and the like--but on social issues like marriage equality or abortion or foreign military intervention their views are what would usually be considered "liberal."

Which doesn't mean the gop is screwed, especially when one considers the voting habits of that (millennial) cohort, "liberal republicans" still vote republican.

[freshwest]

39. I agree with both of you strongly. Also note the higher consistency of GOP as conservative vs. those

Last edited Sun Mar 1, 2015, 08:15 AM - Edit history (1)

Kos is calling liberal. I'm not buying it for a second. although I like that he says there is no generational divide, the rest of the graph doesn't prove what he says. And Pew is by no means one of the less reliable polling groups, either.

The Libertarian brand is strong among youth as a version of rebellion against the status quo and that's not a bad thing. It's perfectly normal, but it doesn't alway lead to a liberal outcome. Most generations had that period in their life and some or us have never left it because there is wrongdoing in this world that must be resisted. But isn't the same kind of revolution occuring people that we want to have.

Conservative youth groups, even extremely radical conservative groups now surround us around the globe, but some are in deep denial about that. ISIS is not for old people. Aryan skinheads, Neo Nazis, Boko Harum, Putin youth and other radical groups are undeniably YOUNG.

Some progressive and liberals think that younger people will pledge to the ideals they have, when there is no sign of them doing any such thing. The rebranding of conversative, Bircher ideology works very well. It's trendy to be an Infowarrior or go with other such believers. They have found a new truth for the young... haha.

But they are unwittingly supporting the Koch view of the future, which is unabashedly conservative in results, and they are loving it. Kos is whistling by the graveyard like most have been for years. Mainly with knee jerk cries of outrage and stunned disbelief at what CONS are doing to America.

The CONS do not hide what they are doing when they get in power, and they are hiding less of it as they have gotten more as they run for office now. Many who say they 'would never dare because it's crazy, inhumane or sociopathic,' need to take off their rose-colored glasses and face what's up.

Additionally, reading the comments were complaints about voting nor being made easy enough for youth to get out to vote. One said that it SHOULD be made easier and THEN they would vote.

What's with this SHOULD be when it's us who must MAKE it be? Who is to make it easier when the GOP is in charge of most states, deliberately making it so hard? Not those who complain about how hard it is to vote. They didn't vote before, and now don't understand why it's hard?

It was youth and people of all ages who got out and voted Barack Obama, some of them waiting all night in adverse weather, and it was NOT EASY.

And for those waiting for 'that special someone' to bother to get out and vote, those people are easy to vote for getting online with 'American Idol' where it's made easy to vote for corporate entertainers and begging contestants. The spectacle is degrading to the performers, and people don't realize it, they think it's how life should be.

Politicans are not rock stars or celebrities. But that's pretty much what people are demanding. And while their views may be liberal, it doesn't mean they're going to vote for a liberal politican. As they have been convinced there is no difference in the two main parties.

That has been a constant Libertarian refrain for decades. Because the other two main parties are not Libertarian, thus they're the same to them. But they may complete their conquest of the GOP soon. And apathy always serves the status quo.

JMHO.

[FSogol]

31. One day those libertarians will get laid and then their political thoughts will mature

Just like when a toddler stops sucking their thumb, they'll cast aside selfish, childish fantasies.

[Kalidurga]

2. Looks more like they are f'd with all age groups.

Either way I like it.

[JonLP24]

3. Ron Paul is the only one that I see that could threaten the demographic trends

regarding national elections. There is a big problem though, he gave a terrific speech on the Senate floor on the topic on whether the US should arm Syrian rebels but like with anything, he falls off the rails 37 minutes in. However, on that speech, everything he says after would appeal to ignorant Islamaphobes.

He goes into Muslims who don't agree with IS, "they aren't loud enough" goes into how he wants to see them on the front page of the New York Times, how he wants to see this or that but Muslims grieve for losses from these groups & are in the front lines themselves. Now a lot of recruits join IS because they are victims of oppressions in combination with propaganda as well as brutal fear & intimidation with public crucifixions as a warning for breaking some of their morality laws or opposing them just like Saudi Arabia which the man in my signature was sentenced to crucifixion for non-violent opposition but also encouraging thousands of civilians to speak up against the House of Saud.

While I certainly agree there is a risk of weapons ending up in the wrong hands regarding Sunni Syrian rebels which IS & global Al-Qaeda networks have experience in dealing with spies, I'm sure there are elements of the Free Syrian Army loyal to IS but FSA because they have access to the US arms & US already made the mistake with Iraq's government, with much of the aid going to unregulated Shia militias rather than government--they have no interest or want to be held in self-accountability. Still, he loses the nuance 37 minutes in and forfeits the argument he just made.

He quotes James Jones but best point I ever read from him, wasn't mentioned “The Arab Spring is in my opinion the most consequential period in global affairs since the end of the Cold War,” he had told the Georgetown audience earlier, “[but] in far to many cases the radical forces are the most organized and the best poised to fill the vacuum of leadership.”

It is interesting how much Qatar has been involved in providing that organization & funding in Tunisia, Egypt, & other Arab spring countries. Most of IS foreign fighters come from Tunisia & propaganda seems to be much more orientated toward Sykes-Picot & colonialism than before, House of Saud didn't care about that because they got the country they wanted after over a century a war prior to Sykes-Picot. All they wanted was more to follow their unique & controversial sect starting by financing religious universities or replacing higher learning in other countries whenever possible such as Afghanistan.

on edit - most people have a novice understanding when it comes to economics so those that aren't partisan or more partisan to R side don't realize how devastating Libertarian ideology is when it comes to absolute freedom of the markets, inevitable corruption & greed will max out.

[CincyDem]

4. Do people grow into conservatism?

This is a question I always have when I see data with this theme.

In broad strokes, I think of liberalism (typically Democratic principles) as thinking forward while I think of conservatism (typically Republican) as looking backwards. I think this data supports that hypothesis - when you take the total (top chart) and break out the data by political leaning, you get a higher level of conservative among right leaning subjects (second chart) and higher level of liberal among left leaning subjects (third chart).

At 21, 25 or even 30 - I have a lot more life forward than backwards while at 65, I likely have more behind me than in front of me. That's not fatalistic or defeatist, it's just human physiology.

So at 25, all I think about it the future and how to create something new/better versus today. At 65, I've probably accumulated "stuff", I remember the good old days, and all I think about is how much better it "used to be".

Now I KNOW that's a broad sweeping generalization and many of my best friends are raging liberals over 55 because that's the kind of people I attract and am attracted to. But...if this age shift is even half true, in 30 years today's liberal bias among the young turns into a more balanced or even conservative leaning distribution.

What's missing, IMHO, is a study over time (longitudinal study) that tracks how ideology shifts with age. After all, you probably have to have something to conserve before you become a conservative.

It's likely true that the republicans are f'ed with young people but I'm less sure that they're f'ed with those same people as they age.

[eridani]

5. AFAIK, ideology doesn't shift much with age

People tend to keep the ideologies they arrived at in early adulthood.

[CincyDem]

7. yeah - there's the idea that we are who we are at age 26.

Probably true in general. I just think about a lot of folks I grew up with who were rabid ant-war protesters in the early 70s and today their rabid Faux fans who are convinced BHO is going to let immigrants vote so he can have a third term.

Hopefully you are right and these kids represent the future of our future.

[tblue37]

25. Conformists. They "believe" what most people in their social group believe.

The content of the belief is irrelevant. All that matters is that they agree with most of the people in their own in group.

[freshwest]

40. True, that is it. My liberal roots come from a family who came of age in the Great Depression.

[Bagsgroove]

6. I agree, it's an open question

My guess would be that some young people as they get older and move into the workforce may move right on economic issues. You don't learn to hate taxes until you start paying taxes. But I can't imagine much of a shift on social issues coming with age. If you had gay friends in high school it's hard to imagine you'll turn into Pat Robertson in your old age.

But yeah, I would like to see some study over time on that question.

[n2doc]

9. Not so much grow as indoctrinated

The cumulative effects of years of constant RW propaganda from all 'news' has a strong effect. There have been books written about this, how people who were solid liberal or apolitical types became t-bagger nut jobs after being in a position to be subjected to hate radio and cable tv 'news' for a few years. IMO, this bias extends into other areas like sports radio, where people like Colin Cowherd drop little bits of RW crap into their sports commentaries all the time.

Do not kid yourself into thinking that political views stay constant after a certain age. I saw this for myself, with an Uncle who was a good Union state employee turning into a mindless RW slogan spewer who regularly donated to the repubs and who voted for folks who would have cut his pension and healthcare to nothing if they could have gotten away with it.

[mikekohr]

12. Studies I have seen have shown that the Millenial Generation are voting MORE Democratic

as they age. It is not just the policies of the Republican Party that turn them off. They despise faux drama and outrage. The style and personality of the Republican Party turns them off.

This is not a death spiral. Combined with minority demographics it is a generational black hole. Once they are drawn into the gravitational force of the singularity they will be crushed.

But until then, (4-8 years) they will hang onto power through shaving the rules to suit their increasingly desperate needs. -Voter suppression, Gerrymandering, attempts to change how electoral votes are counted. etc., etc..-
It is because of those tactics, particularly gerrymandering after the 2010 redistricting year, that they will hold the House until 2023.

Ignore them at our collective peril. In their short time left they can really "F" this country up.

[jwirr]

17. At the age of 73 I see what you are saying. However, in the elections of the past - from FDR to

JFK I do not remember the elderly doing what many today are doing - thinking only about the past and voting R. For most of us the past meant Great Depression.

Today I think the big problem with the elderly is where they are getting their info. MSM almost totally teaches that the good old days are what we need today - the R line. Also this group is more likely to attend a rw church that convinces them that everything liberal is bad.

I do not think aging has much to do with it. If anything those who are aging are worried that things are going to get worse and that we are going back into another huge depression. They also are dependent on liberal programs that Democrats support and Rs do not. That should aside from the MSM/church propaganda make them vote Democratic.

I think we underestimate how powerful the MSM is in scaring people and placing the blame.

[Scootaloo]

26. No, but liberalism can be eroded away

Conservatism is the stump that is left when a tree is cut down.

[Populist_Prole]

32. Good question, and one I often muse about

As I've aged I've gotten more liberal, but that could be as much the doing of the political center moving rightward too.

I've witnessed where some new-hire younger coworkers had an economically conservative and pro-corporate view move to the left after the reality of what it's really like sets in.

I've witnessed a couple of friends move sharply rightward as they aged. Knowing them fairly well, I'd chalk it up to the fact they were able to retire in a fairly comfortable economic situation, and so they removed economic issues from their list of concerns and focused only on social issues.

I know younger cousins, children of friends that are either in or entering college, or just entering the workforce, and they seem to regard republicans/conservatives as grumpy, snarling, mean-spirited old greedheads...much to the dismay of their conservative parents.

In short ( I guess it's too late for that ) I think it's hard to pin down one's political compass vis a vis age.

[essaynnc]

8. I have to agree....

I just heard a new acquaintance say last night at dinner, that he used to be a "flaming liberal" growing up, but as he gets older, he's become more conservative. Sure, there are other variables I the mix (he's a successful small biz owner), so there's more than meets the eye. But, he's not totally off the deep end either - we were having a rather deep discussion with a Muslim friend about tolerance and crazies in every religion. So, I doubt that they will ever cross over the line to rebid republican!

[CanonRay]

10. How do we get the Millennials and Gen-ex people to vote?

They stayed home in 2014, and look at the shitpile we have now.

[vanlassie]

11. Let them vote on their iPhone.

[tazkcmo]

15. Appeal to their concerns? n/t

[Scootaloo]

28. Now that's just crazy talk

They'll get center-right democrats who ignore them to campaign at Republicans and they'll LIKE IT!

[treestar]

30. Yet they don't care about our concerns

In addition to not caring about their own

[jwirr]

19. Very good question. This week when we won the net neutrality issue my grandson told me that this

is the first thing that we have done that he cares about. He has a bit of a narrow view because he is Native American and has always had good health care. But the point is that he and his girl friend did not vote in 2014.

I think that the problem is at least with him because he is a very dedicated gamer that he does not even begin to understand the issues as a whole. He is in college but all he studies is computer. I am the oldest family he has and I live with him but instead of my costing him anything I actually help with the household costs. When I asked him what he was going to do with his mother if there was no Social Security he said "Oh, I'll let my sister take care of her - she has a good job."

Yes, they are liberal and I am glad for that. But the two of them do their fighting in games and do not understand the need to fight for what you want continually. (The issue of net neutrality is going to be an ongoing one - unlike in a game.)

In 2014 all who did not vote let us slide backwards and may actually have lost the game in the long run. But they do not see it. In the case of the two in my family - they are lucky - we live in MN and most got out and voted here.

What I am saying is that until the younger members of our party realize that we cannot just shut down the machine and walk away for a while they are not going to vote. This fight does not stop when you walk away.

[Bluenorthwest]

22. I suggest looking at the States where they did not 'stay home' and considering what those States

offered that others did not. My State had Democratic victories, 70% turnout, progressive legislation passed. We vote entirely by mail, our Democrats are Democrats and we had cannabis legalization on the ballot. For us, that 70% was a bit low for a midterm.

[hay rick]

29. They are disenfranchising themselves.

One of the primary goals of negative advertising is to get people to stay home instead of voting. It works amazingly well. I compiled stats by age group in my county in Florida. Read it and weep.

The percentages represent eligible to vote/actually voted for 2014. I used census age ranges. I didn't correct for felon exclusion, so the real numbers are probably about 10% greater- i.e. 20% would be 22%. The important points are that younger voters are grossly under-represented and younger doesn't necessarily mean young...

18-34 19%
35-54 32%
55-64 59%
65-79 70%
80+ 64%

More disconnect- I also tracked the most recent quarter's registrations in our county. This is a very red county. Overall registration in the county stands at

R 49.4%
D 25.6%
O 25.0%

last quarter registrations

R 36.1%
D 20.5%
O 43.4%

Hurray. Republican registration is collapsing faster than Democratic registration. The bad news here is that Florida is a closed primary state, and people who shut themselves out of the first half of the electoral process are more likely to opt out of the second half.

[RBInMaine]

14. Now if only they would vote.

[Cryptoad]

16. As we grow older

our brains start slowly dying, proven by these stats!

[uponit7771]

18. I don't know, the DNC allows FUD etc to homogenize the parties too much

[Doctor_J]

20. not unless the national democratic party 1) adopts a liberal agenda and

2) enacts it.

[Gothmog]

21. The GOP is losing an entire generation

[Katashi_itto]

23. Yup the GOP is Fucked, but so is the Democrats. No one I know in those

age groups plans to go vote for Hillary. It's widespread. People are tired of voting for the lesser of two evils.

[DCBob]

24. And young people also like Hillary..

http://fusion.net/story/41972/fusion-poll-millennials-politics-hillary-clinton-jeb-bush-election-2016/

[guillaumeb]

27. the GOP has a plan, a good one

it is to keep passing so-called "integrity of the vote" laws to disenfranchise enough minority and young voters that the old white folks will still be a big enough group to decide close elections.

I think the GOP obviously wants to restrict the franchise to white males, over age 65, and with property. The original intent of the Founders, by the way.

They are aided in this when the Democratic Party establishment recruits DLC types as candidates, thus discouraging progressive voters from coming out to vote.

[AverageJoe90]

33. "The original intent of the Founders, by the way. " That's a myth, btw.

I don't know where you got that info, but from all I've read, the great majority of the Founders supported the idea of universal male suffrage, or at least of white males, at any rate(James Madison was apparently an exception, initially, but he also seemed to come around later on.).....though nobody apparently had much of a problem with Mass. and certain other states allowing free Afro-American men to vote, too.

[guillaumeb]

34. I threw that one in

as a jab to the Tea Party types with their misguided belief in American History/Mythstory.

Mythstory is much more comforting than history because you can rewrite it.

[AverageJoe90]

35. True, but we must be careful not to combat myth with myth.....nt

[hifiguy]

36. This is definitely a significant part of their plan. nt

[malokvale77]

37. "This chart also shows the death of the conservative Democrat"

Yet somehow the Democratic Party seems to be all to willing to go over that cliff, right along with the GOP.

[kiva]

38. It doesn't matter a bit if they don't vote.

See: Election 2014.