Why Hillary Clinton Is Probably Going to Win the 2016 Election - By Jonathan Chait
Why Hillary Clinton Is Probably Going to Win the 2016 ElectionBy Jonathan Chait
Unless the economy goes into a recession over the next year and a half, Hillary Clinton is probably going to win the presidential election. The United States has polarized into stable voting blocs, and the Democratic bloc is a bit larger and growing at a faster rate.
Of course, not everybody who follows politics professionally believes this. Many pundits feel the Democrats’ advantage in presidential elections has disappeared, or never existed. “The 2016 campaign is starting on level ground,” argues David Brooks, echoing a similar analysis by John Judis. But the evidence for this is quite slim, and a closer look suggests instead that something serious would have to change in order to prevent a Clinton victory. Here are the basic reasons why Clinton should be considered a presumptive favorite:
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6. There's no alternative. All of the above brings us back to the central challenge facing Clinton. She cannot promise her supporters a dramatic change or new possibilities; she is personally too familiar, and the near certainty of at least one Republican-controlled chamber of Congress suggests continued legislative stalemate. Her worry is that ennui sets in among the base and yields a small electorate more like the kind that shows up at the midterms, which is an electorate Republicans can win.
The argument for Clinton in 2016 is that she is the candidate of the only major American political party not run by lunatics. There is only one choice for voters who want a president who accepts climate science and rejects voodoo economics, and whose domestic platform would not engineer the largest upward redistribution of resources in American history. Even if the relatively sober Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to accommodate himself to his party's barking-mad consensus. She is non-crazy America’s choice by default. And it is not necessarily an exciting choice, but it is an easy one, and a proposition behind which she will probably command a majority.
1-5 & more here:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/04/why-hillary-clinton-is-probably-going-to-win.html
= new reply since forum marked as read
The media is a huge part of our problem. Both sides are not equal & do not deserve equal time. Fox spewed the fair-and-balanced shit & the rest decided to go with it. Now it's just propaganda for the corporate elite. I don't think MSNBC is 'liberal.' Their hosts are given a little more latitude, that is all. Nobody wants Chris Christie for president, so it was okay for Chris, Ed & Rachel to all go after him non-stop for weeks on end.
I lost hope when Scott Walker won the recall election. WTF? 
It is such a huge entangled mess I don't see a way out.
The short answer is no.
http://www.people-press.org/2015/01/14/section-3-the-parties-and-congress-in-2015/
Take a look at the charts.
More Democrats have a favorable view of the Republicans than Republicans have a favorable view of Democrats.
Overall the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by 46% of the people, while 41% view the Republicans favorably. So despite all the rhetoric of the Republicans being extremist, the favorability is still within spitting distance of the Democratic Party.
What that means is this gang. The numbers of "average" people who think that the Republicans are lunatics, is pretty low. 37% of the Independents have a positive view of the Republicans, one percent less than the Democratic party. ONE PERCENT.
So how is it that the people are going to see the Republicans as Lunatics? Obviously, that is more wishful thinking. Gee, I think the Republicans are idiots and morons and lunatics, so everyone else must think the same way I do. Granted, we have no evidence to support that, but everyone I know thinks the same way, so that's all I need to go forward with this premise. Ok, granted, we got our asses kicked royally in 2014, but that doesn't matter. We lost four million votes in 2012, but that doesn't matter. The Republicans are crazy man. Stop trying to change that fact.
Friends, we better plan on this being a tough, hard fought election. We better plan on fighting tooth and nail for every vote, because if we don't, the Republicans will win. They are not going to roll over and die just because you hate them.
We're fucked.
Blue is favorable, red unfavorable. His favorable rating is a flat line; as more people hear and think about him, more are unfavorable.