Nate Silver: "Get ready for an extremely competitive election."
Finally we can look at what the polls say right now. If you’re going to do this, you should take the polls with whole tablespoons full of salt. And it’s probably best to look at the favorability ratings for each candidate rather than head-to-head polls, since favorability polls allow voters to say they don’t know enough about the candidates to have formulated an opinion. (Head-to-head polls taken this far out from the election will tend to favor candidates like Clinton with strong name recognition, by contrast.)
In the chart below, I’ve compiled favorability rating averages for each candidate based on polls conducted since Jan. 1.6 The chart plots the candidates in two dimensions: the vertical axis indicates how popular the candidate is (how much the candidate’s favorable rating exceeds his or her unfavorable rating) while the horizontal axis plots how well-known the candidate is.
. . .
Clinton’s ratings are down sharply from her tenure as Secretary of State. However, as we’ve been warning Democrats for a long time, a lot of this was predictable. Clinton’s numbers have often been about break-even when she’s been a highly partisan figure — during the early stages of the 2008 campaign, for example — and better only when she’s been above the fray of day-to-day partisan politics.
Break-even favorability ratings don’t look so bad, however, when compared to some of the alternatives. Vice President Biden’s are net-negative, for instance. On the Republican side, Walker and Marco Rubio aren’t all that well-known yet, but their ratings are also about break-even. Chris Christie’s are terrible (28 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable). Jeb Bush’s are quite poor too. His unfavorable rating is already as high as Clinton’s, 45 percent, but his favorable rating is just 31 percent.7
THE WHOLE ARTICLE: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/
= new reply since forum marked as read
We've got it in the bag. 
That has exactly zip to do with his record of predicting elections- which is, quite simply, the best record of any analyst out there.
What you're trying to do couldn't be more obvious- or lamer. Try harder. This is just embarrassing- for YOU.
Yikers. Sad.
Btw, from TPM:
Roger Pielke Jr. said Monday that he left FiveThirtyEight, ending a short-lived but turbulent stint with the site launched by Nate Silver earlier this year.
Pielke, a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado, told Discover Magazine that after editors at the site "showed some reluctance" in publishing his work, he told FiveThirtyEight managing editor Mike Wilson that "it was probably best that we part ways."
Pielke's time at FiveThirtyEight got off to a stormy start shortly after the site went live in March. In his first piece for the site, Pielke wrote that the increased cost of natural disasters is not the result of climate change — a premise that was heavily criticized.
Pielke wrote a follow-up to that article two days later, and Silver commissioned a rebuttal the following week. But Pielke only wrote three more pieces for the site after that, all of which focused on sports and not climate.
<snip>
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/roger-pielke-jr-fivethirtyeight-climate
Wow. He was there for all of 3 months and Silver publshed a rebuttal.
at your sad little attempt to discredit Silver. To say you FAIL, is a wild understatement. Care to talk about Silver's record of election predictions?
Of course not.
You can't.
Are you suggesting that I'm right wing, or that Silver is, or who? Do explain your post.
Rasmussen has what to do with Silver?
YOU calling anyone else right wing?
That's a laugh.
D'oh!
Silver, not you! 
And the point is that numbers from right-wing sources are frequently pulled out of someone's a$$.
edit:
That's a laugh.
I consider myself to be kind of middle-of-the-road around here. high point for humor today. I suggest we all chip in and buy Nate one of these -
http://www.dealsdirect.com.au/pro-lift-garage-mechanic-car-z-creeper-sliding-rolling-board/ because he will be constantly thrown under/pulled out from under the bus, depending on what he predicts every day.
