Why We Should Care About the Upcoming U.K. Elections

[marmar]

(Truthdig) The British general election early next month may prove as significant for Europe, and even for the United States, as for Britain itself. The British electorate must make an unprecedented choice among Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists, UK Independents (or UKIP, who want to quit Europe) and Greens, to name only the parties likely to have any influence on the outcome.

This dazzling array of political choice, to voters collectively accustomed for nearly a century only to Tories, Liberals, Labour and an unelectable left, offers a conundrum to those who would forecast the outcome this year. As of this writing, the Conservatives and Labour are so closely matched in voter opinion as to make virtually no difference. Either, winning by the miniscule margins suggested today, is almost certain to need a coalition partner to construct a government. The candidates for that role are the Liberal Democrats, who shared rule with the Conservatives in the present outgoing government, but who have always harbored leftist sympathies and would shock few if they joined a new government with Ed Miliband’s reformed Labour Party.

However what British commentators find more intriguing is the possibility that the Scottish Nationalists, newly led by Nicola Sturgeon, could come in third (or even second, but without a result large enough to make them the official opposition). It nonetheless is now the third largest party in Britain, with 110,000 signed-up members, and would therefore have a powerful claim to a coalition position, and be strong enough to impose its mark on new government’s policies. Scotland in that case might have lost its bid for independence last year, but would have irresistible influence in a coalition government of Britain.

Then we have UKIP, the withdraw-from-the-EU party. Or one could say, one of the two anti-European parties in Britain if we count the Conservative Party according to where its heart really wants to be. Business, the City of London, and pressure from the United States keeps the Tory Party from bolting from its orthodox establishment position. Its members generally hate the EU, but its leaders accept the pragmatic arguments that the British manufacturing economy needs Europe and British high finance would be unlikely to hold its position as the world’s most important competitor of Wall Street without EU membership. Finally, what is Britain’s role if it ceases to be Washington’s entry into Europe and agent of influence in Brussels? ................(more)

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/why_we_should_care_about_the_upcoming_uk_elections_20150422

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. A sentence in that needs clearing up, about the SNP

"the Scottish Nationalists, newly led by Nicola Sturgeon, could come in third (or even second, but without a result large enough to make them the official opposition)"

I have no idea what "or even second, but without a result large enough to make them the official opposition" means. The SNP only stands in Scottish seats - less than a tenth of the UK, so we know they will not come second (as the piece notes, Labour and the Tories are neck and neck). "Without a result large enough to make them the official opposition" is nonsense - the 2nd largest party after the government is the official opposition.

'Could come in 3rd' is underselling it; the SNP will come in 3rd, according to every prediction. Here's a round-up of some:

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

All have the SNP between 47 and 55; and the Lib Dems between 22 and 28. The results may fall a bit outside those bounds, but it'll be amazing if the Lib Dems get more seats than the SNP.

[T_i_B]

2. Maybe the question the article should be asking...

....is how stable will the next UK government be?

The question needs to be asked, given the sort of compromises that will be needed to get legislation through the next parliament.