PPP poll: Hillary leads Bernie 63% to 13%

[muriel_volestrangler]

Surprisingly, this only seemed to get one mention on DU last week, as far as I can tell, in a thread that led with the headline about the Republican race. But it seems very relevant to DU, so, here it is (poll taken a week after he announced):

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable 74%
Unfavorable 21%
Not sure 5%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bernie Sanders?
Favorable 38%
Unfavorable 26%
Not sure 36%

(Democrats) Given the choices of Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
Lincoln Chafee 5%
Hillary Clinton 63%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Jim Webb 6%
Not sure 11%

May 7-10, 2015 Survey of 600 Democratic primary voters

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_51315.pdf

Among 'very liberal' Democratic primary voters (25% of the total), she leads him 65% to 24%; 'somewhat liberal' (30%) 73% to 11%; 'moderate' (32%) 63% to 9%.

There was also a Fox poll taken from the 9th to 12th; it had Hillary leading Bernie 63% to 6%.

[Renew Deal]

1. Chafee is polling higher than O'Malley

That's ridiculous.

[freshwest]

48. +1.

[Agschmid]

57. That will change once he steps into the race I think.

O'Malley has the potential to do well, but I'm not sure that he can overcome Hillary. Obviously it is still a LONG way to the primary.

[morningfog]

2. Hillary has a formidable lead, no doubt about it.

I'm going to be following the polls in the early primary states for possible trends.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. You can get a 100-1 odds on Bernie wiining the IA caucus at off shore gaming sites

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2043930

[Agschmid]

58. If he's got a chance the caucus is where he will do it.

Betting odds or not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

60. Thee are probably minimums but if someone even had an inkling he can win IA...

Thee are probably minimums but if someone even had an inkling he can win IA they can turn 25 bucks into 2,500 bucks...Unless your religion prohibits gambling that's easy money.

[Agschmid]

62. My job prevents gambling money...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. Do you have a security clearance?

Why would it be of their concern?

Does that mean you can't go to Vegas or a casino?

[Agschmid]

65. No, it means I need a raise...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

73. I don't even have a checkbook but If I thought Bernie could win IA

I don't even have a checkbook but If I thought Bernie could win IA i would gladly pony up 25 bucks to win 2500 bucks...


Let that sink in... If you lost 25 bucks from your wallet you would feel bad for maybe a day ...If you won 2500 bucks you will remember it for a while...

[madokie]

3. Too early to tell yet

Hillary has been running for years now where Bernie is only beginning. We'll see what the polls show in a couple months. My bet is the gap will narrow quiet a bit, possibly even reverse. Bernie resonates with the average Jane and Joe, republiCON or not. In three months from now if this hasn't changed by a bunch then I might rethink what I think but until then I'm hanging in there with Bernie

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. What usually happens in Republican world is the latest person to announce moves to the head of the..

pack. That didn't happen here. How long is long enough for Bernie to launch? Bernie's already the most well known Socialist in the country. Polling doesn't bear out anything you just said. Bernie "resonates" with you. That's not the same as "the average Jane and Joe, republiCON or not", but nice talking points.

[Exilednight]

41. Last time I checked, we're not Republicans.

In 2008, Obama joined the race and for the first few months Hillary maintained a commanding lead by about 30 points.

[Tarheel_Dem]

43. Are you saying that Bernie will capture the imagination of a nation like Obama did?

[Exilednight]

45. Two part answer

1. I wouldn't rule it out. If he doesn't get a bounce after the first debate, then I would argue no he will not. But I can certainly see a path where his message resonates along with honesty.

2. Not everyone has announced yet. There could always be a surprise candidate that can take an election by storm.

Personally, I don't think Hillary can win a GE. The GOP has had 12 years to prepare for a Hillary nomination.

As soon as Kerry lost in 2004, republicans went to work on a Hillary candidacy, but were surprised when Obama won and didn't have much opposition research him.

They have truckloads on Bill and Hillary.

[Tarheel_Dem]

53. Everything imaginable has been thrown at Hillary Clinton, it has made NO difference in her chances..

to capture the White House. Look, everyone's entitled to their opinion, but there's no one on the left who has a better chance of holding the White House, after 8 years of a Democratic president, than Hillary Rodham Clinton. Bernie's been floppin' around Washington for decades now, spitting & preaching to choir. It's time he walked across the aisle and talked to his political opponents instead of the cameras. Perhaps then, he could actually make a difference.

[Exilednight]

56. Republicans have only thrown rocks so far. They're holding the boulders

For when they need them. She's our least qualified candidate to announce thus far. She kneecapped herself in the 2008 primary, and is making the same mistakes again. She's running a 20th century candidacy in the 21st century, just like she did against Obama.

Her only real chance, IF she wins the primary, is if Jeb wins the pub nod and the country has Bush fatigue.

[Tarheel_Dem]

59. Good luck convincing the rest of the party of that. Did you hear? She's 50 pts ahead of her nearest

rival.

[Exilednight]

67. And polls mean what at this point in the primary?

[Agschmid]

61. ...

Really?

She's our least qualified candidate to announce thus far.

[Exilednight]

69. Compared to Bernie? Yes.

[Agschmid]

71. What has he done? What has she done?

Whats the difference between qualifications?

[Exilednight]

76. Allow me to answer with the same question about Hillary.

[Agschmid]

77. I'm not a supporter of her's so I don't feel the need to compile a list...

but it's entirely disingenuous to call her unqualified.

[Exilednight]

78. She claims to have been duped by W on her IWR vote. If you were

Fooled by Bush, then yes you are the least qualified candidate.

[Agschmid]

79. Your goal posts just moved.

[Exilednight]

85. Not at all. I can't point to anything in her record and

Say she fundamentally changed our country.

[Agschmid]

89. Nothing?

Can't find a thing?

Did you look?

Are you sure?

[freshwest]

68. I don't think so. None of the candidates have his temperament and brilliance. Certainly Hillary and

Last edited Thu May 21, 2015, 01:52 AM - Edit history (4)

Bernie are very smart people, but neither has the temperament or the experience from living abroad of Obama. None of the candidates do. We won't see that in 2016.

Bernie is just what he is, no more or less. Refreshing to some, frustrating to those who want him to get into their boat. Like his 'support for guns' and voting against the Brady Bill (we don't have the reason on that, and his vote didn't change anything and he knew it didn't),

his support for the wasteful F-35 (which likely provided the tax base from high paying jobs working on it and built the praised waterfront in Burlington;

and he said is was going to be the F35 or something just like it as NATO wanted it would get it from us or some other nation, so why not us?),

and protecting Israel because Hamas is a danger;

and fighting ISIS, even though he disagrees on strategy with some, it is necessary.

He has his own way of looking at the world and his supporters need to understand that he is a mature, responsible politician, and not the ultra liberal they assume that a Democratic Socialist is always a pacifist, which is not true at all.

Clinton is complicated, has seen a lot, been down many paths. She has traveled the world to push women's rights and that of children, told us things we did not know and how precious what rights we do have here and is for reversing the tide. This is not getting support online, but it is in the real world. Those who support women's rights are simply not popular in the online world, our conservative nation and the World who don't want to hear what they see as an incoherent voice that profits them none, may even get in the way of their schemes.

But I think, like Bernie, that Barack and Hillary have kept true to their own principles, no matter the obstacles. They are exceedingly strong, focused individuals. And very different from each other.

There is one place where they meet in word and deed, they will give in for the public good, and that means not fooling around by not supporting or voting for the nominee of the Democratic Party.



HRC supported Obama after a brutal campaign. Sanders says he will not play the part of a spoiler and allow another right wing Republican into the White House as he sees the bigger picture. He is running against the billionaire class, has called out the Koches as much as Reid and Obama has. Hillary has to some extent, but everything she says is so in context, there are no soundbytes to make memes. I see this as her greatest weakness.

Some only see a small goal they want to attain, which will be no one's gain but the GOP.

The Democrats see people as valuable and not as liabilities on a profit and loss spreadsheet. But that's how the GOP classifies people. They twist their words to pretend they are saying other things, but their heart is not in it.

The reason they have a fetus fetish is it's their escape clause for their inhuman plans for millions, logic dictates that is what they are doing. They are killing the innocent now. So they make a fetish of the unborn, hoping to cleanse themselves and not be stained by what they are doing to us.

I can see a lot of women are not buying it and are for Hillary, since because never wavered on women's rights and fights back and cannot be talked down to by misogynists. I have considered her to be for a long time the voice of the unspoken rage of millions of women. That is why she is so hated and feared. All the stuff flung at her is a diversion. She will rock their world, they know it.

As I've said elsewhere, I won't disrespect the things people see as sympathico in HRC, ever, when I talk about Sanders. It doesn't work to change minds. Snarks and cheap shots score points online with some but don't change minds. (Not talking about you, Tarheel.)

That immature behavior just puts up walls. Our candidates don't stoop to that and if a person supports someone for POTUS, why not emulate them?

This is not a game. Real people's lives are at stake.

[sufrommich]

75. .....

[KMOD]

84. I always enjoy your posts, freshwest.

+1

[freshwest]

88. TY. I've edited and added a picture of my favorite Democrat! And talked more on HRC. n/t

[KMOD]

90. Your favorite Democrat is also one of my favorite Democrats, ever.

I have so much respect and admiration for President Obama.

History will prove that he was one of the greatest Presidents.

[arcane1]

4. That "not sure" category is going to start seeing some certainty!

[kentuck]

5. It's an uphill battle, no doubt...

I say check back in 6 months and see what the polls say? Then, we should know which way Democratic voters want to go, with Bernie, or with Hillary?

[True Blue Door]

6. Huge showing for Bernie this early in the game.

Just months ago he was an order of magnitude smaller.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

81. Yes, rooting for Bernie. Expect others to soon get in the race and make it interesting.

[pintobean]

7. At this point

it's little more than name recognition.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. Except that Bernie's 'unfavorable' number is already higher than Hillary's

so, no, I don't think it's just name recognition.

[Joe the Revelator]

21. Exactly....those unfavorables are ugly.

[redstateblues]

82. The S word will be an albatross for Bernie

I know it's heresy to utter that word but in our political landscape it will be toxic

[WillyT]

8. We're Just Gettin' Warmsed-Up !!!

It's gonna tighten.

[olddots]

9. two words

So what ? I don't mean to offend but so what ?

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. So what? Some DUers are claiming that it's vital for Hillary to persuade Bernie supporters

for her to stand any chance in the general election, as if there's a group where he's the more popular one. Outside DU, that just doesn't seem to be true. People need some sense of reality to base their conversations here on. Some DUers don't seem to realise how much of an echo chamber this is.

[Cha]

10. Yeah, it's early.. thanks mv

[JaneyVee]

11. That is a big gap. Even if Bernie peeled off every other...

Candidates numbers it would be 63-37. Bernie is going to need to peel off every candidate's numbers plus peel off 30% of Hillary supporters. The silver lining for Bernie is that there is actually still a long time to make it possible.

[leftofcool]

14. Good news!

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Polls mean a hill of beans at this point for anybody

that has declared or not.

They are useful for inside campaign operators though. They do go over them with fine tooth combs.

They are a good indicator of name recognition as far as the general public is concerned. The ones on the R side are far more competitive, because there is a lot more name recognition. Whether that is good or bad is besides the point. Though it makes that clown car more fun to watch.

And I see my "candidate" nowhere in there, that be big money... and trust me, he\she is taking it by a landslide.

That said, the unfavorables for HRC have been slightly climbing up... that might be media, that might be her. the jury is still out on that one. And if I were INSIDE the campaign, thankfully I am not, that would be something to slightly worry about at this point. See the comment about hill of beans

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Her unfavorables among Democrats and Indys have barely budged...

Nearly all the erosion has been among Pukes*, ergo:

However, the vast majority of the erosion in Clinton’s favorability ratings has occurred among self-described Republicans and Republican leaners. In March, about 75 percent of Republicans viewed her negatively, according to Gallup’s own figures. Now, 90 percent do.

“Over the same period, her unfavorable rating has increased only three percentage points among independents and Democrats, hardly significant except that it has held at this slightly higher level for two months,” writes Ms. Saad.


http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2015/0519/Should-Hillary-Clinton-worry-about-her-latest-drop-in-the-polls-video

*I'm starting to feel bad for calling Republicans Pukes when they don't trash Democrats any more than some of the posters here.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. Personally I just watch both train wrecks with bemused interest

And that is about it.

I don't believe my vote matters, since it is not followed by a few zeros, after an obvious 1. If there are not at least 6 zeroes, no use really.

Don't worry, we will vote, mostly to remain in practice. But it matters like that hill of beans.

But we have seen that unfavorable climb slightly, nothing to go rend your clothes over, but it has. At this point... it is really not that important though.

[Agschmid]

63. Is this true?

The ones on the R side are far more competitive, because there is a lot more name recognition.

[nadinbrzezinski]

66. Yes, people know who ted cruz is

they also know who Marco Rubio is.

They know who Rand Paul is as well.

Look at the numbers, they are that much closer in the polls. Getting a front runner out of this will be interesting. On the bright side, I would say Jindal is still an unknown.

And I will edit this to ask the obvious question, how much of this is the highly dysfunctional mainstream media?

[Agschmid]

70. I think this...

Look at the numbers, they are that much closer in the polls. Getting a front runner out of this will be interesting. On the bright side, I would say Jindal is still an unknown.

Has to do more with the fact that 20 of them are running, they all basically start at 1/5 the electorate. I actually don't really think they have a name recognition issue. Remember it's the primary so typically the people voting are aware of the candidates on their side.

[nadinbrzezinski]

74. Oh I know people know who these guys are

in one particular case people shudder (Jeb Bush), but as I edited above, some of this has to do with the highly dysfunctional main stream media. Also I am not talking of the general electorate. That electorate really does not tune in until six weeks before the general election. But among the primary electorate. republicans know who their candidates are a lot more than democrats.

It might be a function of mainstream media. That is a real possibility, or ground operations, or both.

Regardless, polls right now amount to a hill of beans and are nothing more than navel gazing among political animals.

[SomethingFishy]

17. Yeah well when Hillary's name is crossing my vision a dozen times a day

and Bernies a dozen times a year, it may have something to do with the media completely ignoring him. Or not. But you have to admit she gets wall to wall coverage and half of Americans probably don't even know who Sanders is.

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. As I've pointed out, his 'unfavorable' number is already higher than hers

He could help close the gap with more coverage, but he also needs to persuade people who already aren't keen on him to change their minds.

[SomethingFishy]

19. And he has a year and a half to do it.

This poll means nothing. Nothing.

[Joe the Revelator]

23. He has less than a year to do it. He needs to win a primary

If doesn't pull out an early upset, he'll be done early.

[SomethingFishy]

24. Point taken. However I was just looking at the Polls from May 2007 which had Hillary

Anywhere from 14 to 24 points ahead of Obama.

The poll means nothing at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. You can get 100 -1 odds on Bernie winning the IA Caucus at the off shore gaming sites

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2043930

You can turn $10,000.00 into $1,000,000.00 and invest it and retire or start a Bernie PAC for the general election.

[SomethingFishy]

26. Yeah if I was stupid enough to gamble.

With Hillary 20 points ahead of Obama in May 2007 it would have been a wise bet that she was going to win. That worked out real well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. That's why it's not stupid for you to bet ...

You already Know Hillary is a loser... So here's a chance to take money from clueless European oddsmakers.


Okay, 10K is steep but you can turn $250.00 into $25,000.000

[SomethingFishy]

30. Seriously?

This kind of shit is why I don't come around here much anymore. DU has become a detriment to Democrats.

I have an idea, how about you take your money and go bet that Obama won't fuck the nation over with the TPP. I'll smoke a bowl and wait LOL..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. I was trying to help you make money so you can improve your life or the life of others...

If you don't want to keep your earnings you can give it to charity.

[cali]

29. There may be no one better at retail politics in the country than Bernie

It's what he does. When he says he's met and talked with over half of VT's residents, he probably underestimating it. He's here at town halls and pot lucks and parades. When he first ran for Congress and showed up in my neck of the woods, which was still republican, he won over a lot of them- farmers, loggers, backwoods types.

We'll see what he can do in Iowa.

[freshwest]

49. My experience is exactly opposite. I get my news online, though. n/t

[SidDithers]

20. DU rec...

sid

[BainsBane]

27. His unfavorables are higher than Clinton's

That is surprising given all the negative media attention she gets.

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

34. No shit, think about it, this is good news for BOTH of them.

For the SOCIALIST to already have 13%, is amazing and for her favorable to be that high amidst non stop attacks from everywhere, media, democrats, republicans, etc.


Win Win I say

When i say Socialist I am half kidding, it is like the "commie" word to the idiots.

Adults with brains understand that socialism the way we do it and Northern Europe does it, is good.

He is a Democratic Socialist, by the way.

Hillary is a liberal, by the way. Maybe too friendly with the banksters but we can work on that.

[MaggieD]

36. Spin it baby!

And whatever you do, Don't stop believing!

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

37. You call it spin, I call it working to get a Democrat in the WH, but we may not have

the same goal

[freshwest]

44. A lot of interest in any of our candidates is good for us, unless we diss either one. n/t

[Number23]

50. That is actually an excellent point. Hillary has been slammed by the media for what, two decades?

Every pant suit, every laugh, every thing has been criticized.

For Bernie Sanders to have a higher unfavorable than Clinton, I really don't understand that. It must be his decades of identifying as a socialist. Some people here like to pretend that won't be an issue in the real world but it looks like it will be.

[Marr]

32. Yes, Hillary has a big lead eight months out from the start of the primary season. /nt

[geek tragedy]

33. What will be interesting is how O'Malley and Bernie treat one another nt

[freshwest]

47. Why? Do you think they are that far apart? Is there a history there? n/t

[geek tragedy]

52. No, that's the problem, they occupy much the same space--the "I'm more liberal than Hillary"

niche.

O'Malley has a lot of great qualities, but he's not Bernie.

[freshwest]

72. None of them are Bernie. I hope he advances. n/t

[MaggieD]

35. Yeah, like I said, he is not going to win

And then all the fussing and fighting here will be for nothing. LOL!

[freshwest]

39. Bernie is still 2nd above the rest. That's encouraging. I got nothing bad to say about either, but

I really 'heart' Bernie himself. I've been interested in him for over a dozen years now. He's not an alternative to Clinton. They are both very formidable candidates in their own ways.

[Joe Turner]

42. Can't figure out why Biden hasn't thrown his hat into the ring

Also, Hillary's 63% favorable number means there is an immediate 37% Other Than Hillary number out there that can grow for Bernie or whoever emerges as the main challenger...if any.

[muriel_volestrangler]

46. Not really; 63% is the number who want her as candidate

Her 'favorable' number is 74%. The poll also asked who would be their 2nd choice. For those whose 1st choice was Chafee, O'Malley or Webb, Hillary picks up a total of 4.2%, while Bernie picks up 2.5% (2.9% said "not sure&quot .

[Mnpaul]

51. I can figure it out

He doesn't want the job. He would probably like to go out for a drive in his '67 vette. Right now, he can only drive it up and down the driveway.

[geek tragedy]

55. Because he's not a very good presidential candidate.

He managed all of .9% in Iowa in 2008. His campaign made it through 72 hours in 2008.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

80. I like Joe Biden very much. He is my second choice...

In the highly, highly...highly unlikely event Hillary stumbled you can bet the house the president and the party would instantly rally around him.

Back to his efficacy as a candidate...Pat Caddell said he would be the ideal candidate, go figure...

[Doctor_J]

54. Yes, we all know she is going to win

So we can have 8 more years of a "Dem" enacting corporatist policies. But we'll still have abortion rights, so it's all good!

Yippee.

[PeteSelman]

83. She has 100% name recognition.

This is no real surprise.

It's just such a damn shame there's no hope for us anymore. Hasn't been for thirty years and more.

[FLPanhandle]

86. The American public is incredibly fickle though

Attitudes change overnight in this country.

Personally, I will vote for Hillary in the primary and will vote for either one in the General.

[TBF]

87. 1200 people out of (est) 235,000,000 voting age

That's not a very high percentage

But, yeah, he's definitely the underdog. We'll see where we are in 6 months.