What are the odds that Biden is the VP for second term?

[Flaxbee]

While what Obama did was long past due, it's no secret Biden pushed the issue ... think he'll retire to spend more time with his family for the second term?

Would it make a difference to you if the ticket were Obama and ____________ vs. Obama and Biden?

[cindyperry2010]

1. no difference at all to me

[josephslaton]

2. 100%

Biden isn't going anywhere

[Tikki]

22. Yes...and YAY..

fine man there....


Tikki

[rox63]

3. He's not going to dump Biden

Ticket will still be Obama/Biden 2012.

[cthulu2016]

4. 99%

If Biden is alive and well in August he's the VP

[polichick]

5. My bet is Biden stays on the ticket...

If not Biden, Hillary would be the interesting choice.

[DJ13]

6. Near 100%

Changing VP's now would be a sign of weakness that the GOP would love to pounce on.

[Flaxbee]

9. but not if it were Biden's choice... some pressing family issue

you never know.

Anyway. Interesting to ponder - I've heard people talking Hillary to prime her for 2016. Also gets Biden who does sometimes jump the gun out of the way...

[FSogol]

7. 100%

[madinmaryland]

8. Biden will be the VP for the second term. nt

[randome]

10. So you think Obama is the vindictive sort who doesn't control his administration's agenda?

I doubt that's the case. Biden looks to be in good health still, so I'm betting he'll be VP for a second term.

[Flaxbee]

14. No. But I do think the administration is irked.

Just something interesting to think about. I do think presidential politics is Machiavellian and if Obama's team thinks Biden is prone to misstatements or letting things slip that then pushes the administration into a position it doesn't like, Biden might need to head the World Bank (or something like that, I know the position was just filled).

[Arkana]

11. He's not dumping Joe Biden.

Geez, what is it with the conspiracy theories?

[JoePhilly]

12. 97.87678%

[laundry_queen]

57. Could I see your methodology please?

[JoePhilly]

58. Sorry, its proprietary, and I'm waiting for the patent to clear legal.

[Warpy]

13. I think Biden was sent out to test the waters, honestly.

However, anyone who scares the far right loonies into keeping Obama alive is fine with me, whether the fright is justified or not.

The last thing the Koch boys want is a Biden presidency after an assassination. Biden is honest and he will ruin them.

[Flaxbee]

15. they wouldn't want Hillary, either

nt

[marlakay]

18. I heard somebody on tv close to campaign

say Obama was going to come out for gay marriage in August, so Joe just made it come out faster.

Maybe he thought, Obama going to do this in a few months anyway so I might as well say what I think.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

16. 100%.

What Biden said wasn't a gaffe or an off-the-cuff remark; it was a trial balloon. He knew exactly what he was doing, and the WH did, too.

Biden will stay on the ticket. And he should.

[hifiguy]

17. 100% unless he steps into a portable hole

like in the cartoons. So, 100%

[madokie]

19. Joe will continue to be our Vice President

What he said was no gaff, it was what he thought not what he wanted the President to think.
Get real

[Flaxbee]

20. I am real. This is not what I think, or want. This is a discussion.

Don't get all riled up.

[madokie]

46. Mybad I didn't intend for that to be read as I'm all riled up

Who knows why I even added that. Not me for sure.
sorry, My apology
Peace

[aquart]

56. Being disingenuous is not a discussion.

This is DU. We aren't political amateurs.

[sad sally]

21. As long as this is just a "what are the odds," here's another possible "what if"

Clinton is leaving the Sec of State seat open. What if Joe Biden, because of his fierce loyalty to Obama, is given the position he's always wanted - Sec of State, leaving the VP seat open. Obama needs a VP who can bring some electorial votes to the party come November. Enter junior senator Kay Hagan from NC, the only woman who beat another woman (Dole) in the Senate and liked by NC. Just a "what if."

[Flaxbee]

28. interesting... you just never know

Thanks for your thoughts. It's nice to have the idea discussed rather than just shut down.

[MadrasT]

53. I'd love to see Joe as Sec State.

(Love him as VP, too.)

[DefenseLawyer]

23. the odds are 1/1

Next question.

[cloudbase]

24. 50/50

He will.

or

He won't.

Narrows down the longest odds.

[L. Coyote]

25. Hey, don't be getting out in front of Barack's skis just yet!

That surprise is supposed to come out to garner convention excitement and bring a massive audience to Obama's acceptance speech! So don't say a word about this topic.

Especially not the part about how a woman on the ticket will be a lock! We don't want Romney picking Palin to try to stop that!

[cynatnite]

26. Short of a sudden death, I'd say nearly 100%. n/t

[fishwax]

27. If Biden pushed the issue, I'm not convinced it was against the administration's desires

I'd say the odds are somewhere between 99 and 100%. Anything is possible, but I don't think Biden's remarks were necessarily off message for the administration.

[Flaxbee]

29. I don't think they were off-message at all, but perhaps off-timing

While "all's well that ends well", you still want to have a VP you know isn't going to steal the march.

I love Biden. But he might be too impulsive for this administration.

[fishwax]

32. I'm not convinced of that either, but Obama won't dump Biden for answering a question on MTP

It's not as though Biden even called for a change in how the administration would handle the issue--he faintly signaled that such a change was possible, but refused to confirm it. It's not that he forced Obama's hand--there's no real reason Obama couldn't have waited had he wanted to--so much as his remarks and the positive reception of those remarks gave him an opportunity to do what he did yesterday. Biden's response didn't seem particularly impulsive to me. It seemed well thought out and carefully articulated.

Maybe it's true that Obama's team had no inkling that Biden would be asked about gay marriage when he went on Meet the Press three days before the Amendment One vote, but I doubt it. Maybe his team was blindsided by Biden's answer, which reiterated that the president sets policy before offering that Biden himself was "comfortable" with gay marriage, but I doubt it. Either of those would demonstrate a woeful lack of preparation.

As much as I doubt either of those possibilities, I'd be exponentially more shocked if it turned out that Obama was going to dump Biden for answering a question about his personal views on marriage equality by saying "The president sets the policy. I am absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women, and heterosexual men and women marrying one another are entitled to the same exact rights, all the civil rights, all the civil liberties."

Dropping Biden for that would be atrocious.

[RebelOne]

30. I'm pretty sure he will,

but I received a bumper sticker that says Obama/Biden and I am waiting until it is a sure thing before I put it on the car.

[longship]

31. 100% Two points about your question

1. Is there any doubt that Joe Biden likes being VEEP? From all appearances he's having a whole lot of fun doing what he does best.

2. The apparent friction between Obama's and Biden's styles is an incredible asset to both the presidency, and especially the campaign. Regardless of whether this week's announcements were orchestrated or not (Obama said it wasn't -- I believe him), both Obama and Biden are smart enough to know that it is a null sum game whether it's done now or in September.

Actually, I think that everybody in the White House probably is already admitting that this ended up being a very shrewd move that happened by serendipity. More importantly, it very well might show them a way forward that will increase their chances for victory in November.

Obama and Biden are an incredible team. I like everything I see about them right now. The Republicans are undoubtedly very worried about this right now. I assure you!

[skamaria]

33. Obama/Maddow 2012

If Joe chooses not to run.

[polichick]

40. Wouldn't that just make some heads explode? lol...

Rachel is so smart - she and the prez would be well-matched and make a good team!

[mrmpa]

34. Biden is the President's conscience of the Democratic Party.......

The VP reminds the President of what the Democratic Party has long upheld as their beliefs. When things get foggy for the President, the VP jolts him back to the true roots of the Democratic Party.

[PatSeg]

35. It will be Obama/Biden 2012

Historically it is very rare for a president and vice president to have such a good working relationship and Obama has relied a great deal on Biden's experience and expertise.

I don't think Biden "pushed" anything. He was asked a question and he gave an honest answer, making it quite clear he was speaking for himself, not the administration.

[bowens43]

36. 100% if Obama is re-elected, Biden will be the VP

[WI_DEM]

37. What a stupid post. Biden is going to be on the ticket.

[Flaxbee]

38. what an original, thoughful comment. Are you always this intolerant and dismissive of others?

If so, maybe reconsider calling yourself "liberal".

[DefenseLawyer]

41. One can be tolerant of something and still think it is stupid.

It's a risk you run, when you present an idea, that someone may think your idea is stupid. But you know, that's just like, their opinion, man.

[Flaxbee]

42. Sure, it's just their opinion. But civility is always appreciated, and "stupid" doesn't

necessarily lead to productive or interesting conversations.

My opinion is that the comment was rude and unproductive.

Conversation tend to die off pretty rapidly when dismissed as stupid. Tends to limit the free flow of ideas.

[DefenseLawyer]

47. I'm used to a bit more rough and tumble I guess

If the worst my argument gets is "that's stupid", I'm not really fazed by that (mostly because it isn't much of an argument, not because it isn't "civil&quot . Calling your opponent stupid is another matter. For what it's worth, I think it was a fair question, given the President's recent comments about skis and what not, but for me the answer is pretty clear.

[DFW]

39. No more than 100%, certainly

Probably no less, either.

[Stinky The Clown]

43. 100% chance of it happening

[JI7]

44. same as odds that Obama will be Pres

[apples and oranges]

45. LOL.

[Greybnk48]

48. Joe Biden is beloved by many and has been for decades.

He's not going anywhere, nor should he. In regard to your question, it would not be ok with me if Joe was "dumped." It would be a real problem. But if it was completely his decision, I'd be ok.

[mojitojoe]

49. What's the chance? Damned near 100%

Biden has done nothing to be ashamed of. He's been a good vice-president.

[KurtNYC]

50. Biden can't win the POTUS

so there is a possibility that Hillary goes to VP in the next term.

I put the odds at:

65% Biden stays
35% Hillary becomes VP to set up the succession

[Chan790]

51. I don't think Hillary Clinton can either.

If they were going to make the change to set up a successor, they'd choose someone who might be capable of being elected who could benefit from the spot on the national stage. I don't think she can win...and I don't think she'd benefit much if at-all from the VP nod even if she could.

who?

Also, some on the left have already started agitating for a liberal in 2016 and we're not backing down. The next Democratic nominee after Obama had better be a good bit to the left of both Obama and Clinton...or Clinton had better disavow her economic centrism. We've had enough of this "we have to nominate a moderate for electability" shit; we're taking the bus left.

[KurtNYC]

52. I think the most likely race in 2016 would be Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

but I would give that less than a 10% chance of happening because there are many variables. But it fits the pattern:

Reagan - Reagan - Bush - Clinton - Clinton - Bush - Obama - Obama - _________

I think Hillary Clinton has the best chance of becoming the first female POTUS of anyone alive today.

[Chan790]

54. Please no more Bushes or Clintons.

It's becoming an aristocracy at this point where the same small groups within the parties keep cycling the Presidency between them.

Hell, let's run a Kennedy. There aren't any prominent ones right now but they've got the name to be immediately viable. At least it's a change of pace.

[CK_John]

55. Would like to see Sen Gillibrand (NY) replace Joe, but 80/20 Joe stays.

[Inuca]

60. 80/20?

Did you see the Obama/Biden signs last week?

This whole thing is beyond ridiculous and a waste of bandwidth (of which I am also guilty in replying). Short of a MAJOR medical issue, God forbid, Biden stays. And it is a wonderful thing taht he does.

[AtomicKitten]

59. For the gazillionth time, 100% probability Biden will remain O's VP.

Nice try.
Thanks for playing.
Drive through.