Let's play with Poll numbers!

[brooklynite]

It was suggested that "Hillary was collapsing"/"Bernie was surging" when the Des Moines Register poll came out at 57-15 this weekened. One polling point (even though the DMR January poll had Hillary actually lower at 56).

Well two new -national- polls are out and Hillary is at 60-62% while Bernie is at.....10%.

Now, I could argue that Hillary is surging and Bernie is collapsing...or I could argue that they show Bernie was never that popular nationally. But I wouldn't, because pointing to individual data points is rarely informative.


I look at polling over time. The first notable poll is popularity OVER TIME:




Yes, Hillary's numbers have gone down recently; that frequently happens in political campaigns. However, note that her LOW point today is higher than her HIGH point in the 2008 election cycle. Also, because of her familiarity, there aren't a lot of surprises about Clinton. People know her, and they've decided they like her far more than the alternatives.

The second is in head to head OVER TIME:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary (apologies; the Pollster chart won't generate an image):

Jan 2015: Clinton 60.9% (scaled average)
Feb 2015: Clinton 60.2%
Mar 2015: Clinton 60.2%
Apr 2015: Clinton 60.8%
May 2015: Clinton 61.1%
Jun 2015: Clinton 61.3%

That's a stable line, with an ever so slight increase. Despite Benghazi, emails, "Clinton Cash" and every other "scandal, Hillary Clinton is holding her voters. Is Bernie Sanders gaining share? Yes, but not from her.

Some people here certainly don't like her, and they're welcome to hold that opinion. But let's be honest about where the Primary actually stands today with real Democratic voters.

[NCTraveler]

1. Excellent post.

Her consistency is clear to all of us. That is on policy positions and the publics view of her.

The Gowdy lies aren't working. Doesn't matter if it is the right wing spreading crap about emails, Benghazi, Blumenthal, or lies about her position on Social Security. All right wing spin bullshit that helps Hillary tremendously in the end.

[hrmjustin]

2. K&R!

[Iliyah]

3. K & R

Every negative article comes forth with total vitriol posting. Really?

Came on DU this morning and read I was sick and lost because I don't support BS - LOL

[DCBob]

4. If I were on the Hillary campaign I would be very happy with those numbers..

all things considered.

[LordGlenconner]

5. I'm interested in "Bernie's" h2h numbers with GOP candidates

"Bernie" vs. Ted Cruz.

"Bernie" vs. Jeb Bush.

"Bernie" vs. Scott Walker.

And so on.

The way his fans have been talking here on DU, or BU, as the case may be, he should be fairly competitive even at this early stage of the campaign. I suspect we'll see some H2H numbers sometime this summer.

[MineralMan]

6. Nobody has done that polling, and probably won't until

Senator Sanders shows some really competitive primary polling results against Hillary Clinton. That's probably a good thing, since such head-to-head comparisons with Republicans would be heavily skewed due to name recognition issues.

I'm sure that Bernie Sanders would rather not see such comparisons at this stage in his campaign.