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mainer

(12,023 posts)
Thu Jun 11, 2015, 12:10 PM Jun 2015

The North-South divide on two parent families



"When it comes to family arrangements, the United States has a North-South divide. Children growing up across much of the northern part of the country are much more likely to grow up with two parents than children across the South.

It’s not just a red-blue political divide, either. There is a kind of two-parent arc that starts in the West in Utah, runs up through the Dakotas and Minnesota and then down into New England and New Jersey. It encompasses both the conservative Mountain West and the liberal Northeast.

Single-parent families, by contrast, are most common in a Southern arc beginning in Nevada, and extending through New Mexico, Oklahoma and the Deep South before coming up through Appalachia into West Virginia.

These patterns — which come from a new analysis of census data — are important because evidence suggests that children usually benefit from growing up with two parents. It’s probably not a coincidence, for instance, that the states with more two-parent families also have higher rates of upward mobility."


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/11/upshot/the-north-south-divide-on-two-parent-families.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1
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The North-South divide on two parent families (Original Post) mainer Jun 2015 OP
Worldwide, lots of social outcomes are better the farther north you are Recursion Jun 2015 #1
Yes. But this isn't predictive. Igel Jun 2015 #2
Lots of confounds in this. Igel Jun 2015 #3
A single earner at $12/hr puts a family of three at the poverty line Recursion Jun 2015 #4

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
1. Worldwide, lots of social outcomes are better the farther north you are
Thu Jun 11, 2015, 12:17 PM
Jun 2015

Just look at Europe, for instance

Igel

(35,337 posts)
2. Yes. But this isn't predictive.
Thu Jun 11, 2015, 01:41 PM
Jun 2015

Just consider the Inuit versus the Algonquians. I'd rather be with the Iroquois, thank you, in 1500.

Or with the Romans instead of the early Slavs. There's a reason for the mass migration in the Wandering of the Peoples in the early Dark Ages.

If it had gone the other way, with the South trumping the North, the claim "lots of social outcomes are better the farther south you are." It's a nice observation but needs to be quantitatively grounded in geography and over time, that's all, and also take into account things like the relatively dry belt at the horse latitudes, availability of food stuffs. Then perhaps a valid generalization is achievable.

This is pretty much all temperate, with relatively similar conditions holding in terms of food, water, education. (No, test scores don't say much about teaching, thank you. They do say a lot about learning. While there's necessarily a connection between the two, they're really different in most ways.)

Igel

(35,337 posts)
3. Lots of confounds in this.
Thu Jun 11, 2015, 02:09 PM
Jun 2015

The chief contribution of this story is, IMHO, that neither the right or the left, the "look how educated liberals are" nor the "look how moral conservatives are" win. Those who are better off and educated have stable families; but then again, their kids are going to be more educated because they have a different home culture. Those who are in stable families because of values do better because they, too, have a different home culture. In both, two parents provide a better emotional and psychological support mechanism and greater financial stability.

Oddly, that's the story. It's just not what the reporter or what e thinks e's audience wants.

One line of reasoning points out that when there was a lot of upward mobility in the US there was a higher percentage of stable families as part of the reason. Perhaps; hard to do a controlled study on that. Then, as family stabilty faltered, the outcome for kids in two-parent families stayed the same or increased but after all classes had some family breakup it stopped for educated families. You get a nice scissors plot. But this is but one factor among many, it's not "all or nothing" even though at the end of the NYT article the shallow-thinking reporter tries to play to chauvinism and say there's really just one important thing going on. Even if the effect of the "important thing" might be connected via a feedback loop to produce the cause, even if the cause may actually be produced by other things that otherwise independently give the effect being considered. Confounds.

They were right to leave out kids who weren't considered biologically related to both married parents, but since everybody's looking for reasons to be offended and outraged today, I guess the sop thrown to other groups is necessary. Studies with step-kids show that they don't do as well. Unmarried couples may be committed, but on average their kids don't do as well. Same-sex couples having kids are relatively recently on the radar, but the few studies I've heard of redefine "doing well" in ways that bias the results. Hetero couples that are married have their kids judged on emotional stability, income, academic achievement, criminality, out-of-wedlock pregnancy. Same-sex couples' kids have "tolerance" and "acceptance" thrown in as important parts of "emotional stability" and have even dropped things like "academic achievement", so unless their kids are raging homophobes they're likely to have bonus points added to their scores.


In other words, rather than "it's not a crime that they disregarded these" it's more of a virtue that they disregarded these sources of noise in the data. The effect is more clearly seen, if there is an effect. And of course single parents are going to be miffed and need placating. What for many are choices (although they often reject the idea that they ever had a choice) and for others is inflicted upon them leads to consequences. They do a heroic job, they all think (some do, some don't), and resent the merest hint that somehow the end result for their kids is likely to be less than for others. This is old news. Both the consequences as well as the "bemiffment."


What's difficult is that for all those groups with lesser outcomes for their kids, schools have to make up for the shortfall in academic achievement and the "village" has to find a way to handle the shortfall in other areas ... Without even saying what the shortfalls are correlated to or even having the merest suggestion that there's some causality possibly involved.

Humorously--in a very dark, twisted kind of humor--it makes some of the economic effects understandable. If the south has a larger numbers of families predicted to have kids with worse academic and social outcomes, then judging the south on this point is just another way of judging uneducated parents and single-family parents. Many "progressives" like to judge the south but recoil at the idea of judging single parents. I find the buried dissonance amusing, esp. on a site whose tastes require so much consonance that a I-IV-V-V7-I progression is far, far too hard on the ears. Perhaps a passing tone for the 7th might pass, unnoticed: 5 minutes of I, 5 of V, an 8th note natural 7th in a middle voice, then back to I could be acceptable.

In other, tangentially related news a study recently published in Sweden (IIRC) showed that adopted kids tended to have a IQ boost of something like 4 points (not to be sneezed at) over their siblings and speculated given that SES jumps through adoption are greater in the US we'd see a bigger gain in the US adoptee population if the study were replicated here. But that's just IQ, not "doing well," so who knows what the effects on other measurement scales might be.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
4. A single earner at $12/hr puts a family of three at the poverty line
Thu Jun 11, 2015, 02:36 PM
Jun 2015

Add another adult earner at $12/hr and the new family of 4 is at the median household income. That's a huge difference in itself.

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