How much of a threat is Jeb Bush?

[ellisonz]

19 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Unlimited
	RED - Severe Risk of Bush Presidency
	3 (16%)
	ORANGE - High Risk of Bush Presidency
	3 (16%)
	YELLOW - Elevated Risk of Bush Presidency
	4 (21%)
	BLUE - Guarded Risk of Bush Presidency
	2 (11%)
	GREEN - Low Risk of Bush Presidency
	7 (37%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[NightWatcher]

1. He's got unlimited funds, his daddy was Prez and head of CIA (killed JFK), his brother was Prez

He'll have the support of a vast network of very dark actors in American Politics and unlimited funding from similar business types and king makers.

We'll need a strong candidate and an impressive GOTV program along with poll watcher and voting integrity programs.

[southerncrone]

28. And we need to get rid of electronic voting machines b4 election.

But have little faith that will happen.

I'm convinced that is the main reason we have such a Red Congress & Govs. Look at some of the dopes that were "elected".
I don't need to name names, we all know who they are.

Pretty sure that's the reason we see them smirking all the time. Like confident kids who have a copy of the test & know they have no worries.

[stevenleser]

38. Won't help him. The GOP electorate hates him. nt

[Art_from_Ark]

2. I want to vote "Green",

but my gut tells me "Red"

[ellisonz]

4. I've landed on orange.

It's not severe risk, more than elevated, definitely high.

We need to him down from Day #1.

The DNC isn't playing around:

[think]

3. Never thought America would elect "W" so Jeb & his hawk advisers concern me a bit.... /nt

[Man from Pickens]

5. Who would vote for him?

I don't see any path through the primaries for him to get a nomination. Didn't the Cantor upset prove that you can outspend your opponent 100:1 and still lose?

The formula to get a nomination is big bucks + a significant mass of voters. There are too many competitors for Bush's angle - Rubio in particular will wreck his chances, but he's not the only one.

And any candidate who has near-100% name recognition and is underwater in approval is in trouble from the get-go. There are no new voters to reach and convincing someone who distrusts a candidate to change his mind is no easy task, and this one is in no position to make any good arguments that might change minds.

[ellisonz]

10. Traditional Republicans and Independents

Bill Clinton said it the other day, the Republican Primary generally is about figuring out who is most electable from the middle. Hence nominees like Romney, McCain, and Dole.

[Man from Pickens]

20. I don't find that credible

A lot of traditional Republicans are fleeing the Bush camp precisely because the Bush name is so toxic and thus throws electability into serious question. That toxicity is pretty intense among independents, and those independents don't seem to be much into getting fooled a third time by the same family.

Check this out http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-12/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-rand-paul-jeb-bush-face-primary-obstacles

3/4 down the page it shows you how Bush fares with independents. A solid majority said they would "never consider" voting for him. (He also scores quite high on that point with Republican voters as well, but the independents number is simply not surmountable.

[ellisonz]

21. It's early. The race is still forming. Polls change.

There hasn't even been a debate yet.

[Man from Pickens]

22. this is where the 100% name recognition comes into play

People already know who he is and what he's about, so he's not going to get the benefit that candidates often get from debates, which for other candidates are often chances to create first impressions.

I don't think he's got a prayer in hell of being the GOP nominee and I'm surprised that anybody, including him, thinks he does.

[ellisonz]

24. There's a lot of money betting against that conclusion.

I think you're dramatically overestimating American political consciousness, much less in a GOP primary.

He's got money, media, name recognition, and a record to run on. I don't know why you're selling him short.

[HereSince1628]

6. Early on I thought he was a threat...

now I wonder if he'll just heat up the dynasty issue.

I really don't have a sense of where the population is on that issue, but I think a lot of people believe 3 Bush's are 2-many.

[lonestarnot]

7. He's from the cheater family. I would expect the same outta Jethro.

[Jefferson23]

8. I don't know but we should not ever forget how his war criminal brother managed to "win" twice.

Anything is possible with the Bush regime.

[Exilednight]

9. Green - he's Hillary's only real chance to the presidency.

If she wins the nomination, her only hope is that Jeb wins and that the voting public has more Bush fatigue than Clinton fatigue.

[On the Road]

30. Really?

I might be inclined to think that Bush is the only candidate Hillary might lose to. His money and name recognition are

Once the primaries heat up, Jeb Bush has the chance to become his own person. Elections have their own dynamics, and Jeb might convince voters his family is a winner in these things. He has been governor of an important swing state. People's negative feelings fade over time. vvvThe election may not be about GWB as much as Democrats might hope.

[Exilednight]

34. He was the governor of a state that chose the winner, not elected one.

Jeb plays the smart one, but let's be honest and admit the bar is set pretty low.

The country, also, has war fatigue. He's admitted he would have still invaded Iraq.

[spanone]

11. whoever opposes him should address him as 'george' and nothing else.

[onehandle]

12. Jeb® 2016 = Dole 1996. Party elder put up for sacrifice.

Same as in 1996, a Clinton will hand him his ass.

[Art_from_Ark]

13. Dole was running against an incumbent

The field for 2016 has no incumbents.

[onehandle]

16. Oh noes! My preposition falls apart!

Wait... No it doesn't.

A CLINTON WILL HAND HIM HIS ASS.

[Art_from_Ark]

18. Since 1924, ten incumbent Presidents have been reelected

(Coolidge, Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush 2*, Obama)

and lost only 4 times (Hoover, Ford, Carter, Bush 1). The odds are with the incumbent.

[MH1]

14. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.*

If dumya got in, any Bush can.

* and the ability of the mendacious to hack the vote.

[BillZBubb]

26. Exactly.

The "liberal" press will trumpet the right wing propaganda that Obama crashed the economy and lost the war in Iraq. jeb only has to keep it close and the voting machines can make up the difference.

[cherokeeprogressive]

15. Not a snowball's chance in hell of either winning his party's nomination OR the Presidency. n/t

[Oneironaut]

17. Severe. People will buy his "Not my brother" campaign without question.

The same people who hated G. W. Bush and loved Obama now hate Obama and will love Jeb Bush. They say things like "We need a change," but "change" to them means just voting for the party that is not in power. Also, all Jeb has to do is claim that Obama crashed the economy and that he's a Washington outsider who was poor once - people will eat it up and believe it without question.

[Jamaal510]

19. He's unpopular among the RW base,

but he has the money to try and raise his numbers, and can outspend anybody on either side. I also expect the vote to be split up (just like before) among the many different GOP wackos. They'll find a way to end up with yet another "moderate". He'd probably have the best chance in the GE, but with a high enough turnout, Democrats should have very little trouble.

[ileus]

23. He can't beat Rand Paul, much less anyone our side puts up.

[ellisonz]

25. Rand Paul appeals to a very limited set of voters. n/t

[RandySF]

27. He'll have the M$M behind him.

Just like his dad and his brother did.

[TexasTowelie]

29. Yellow.

He appears to be a better public speaker than his brother. That said, it is still stupidity that flows from his mouth.

[Mike Nelson]

31. I would say no chance...

...but will go with "guarded" because his brother got in twice - and look at him.

[99Forever]

32. Call you say:

A snowball's chance in Hell?

[hay rick]

33. Orange.

He can win Florida, he has the biggest war chest, and the msm will ride to his rescue when he screws up.

[lpbk2713]

35. His odds are somewhere between slim and none.

And slim left town.

He's a Boosh. He just can't get around that no matter how hard he tries.



Plus he was involved in the largest
scale conspiracy of all time.

[Initech]

36. I vote Blue and here is my reasoning:

Sure Jeb's got unlimited money at his disposal, but he isn't a Koch darling like Rand Paul or Scott Walker. If one of those two winds up being Jeb's running mate, they're toast. The big thing is that the GOP doesn't have the minority vote, and that will trump any of the Koch's dirty money.

[ZX86]

37. Low risk. He's a bumbling clown.

Clinton made presidentin' look easy. He could do the "aww shucks" southern drawl and pull it off. Never mind he was a Rhodes Scholar. You could have a beer with him. W tapped into that and combined with out right vote stealing he won. Next election was fear based.

Nobody is falling for that routine again. Jeb has as much chance as Perry. Long shot at best.

[CajunBlazer]

39. He would make a formidable candidate, but can he even get nominates

Jeb is doing something unique in Republican politics; he is not pandering to the far right base of the GOP on issues like immigration and Common Core which will should make him more palatable to independents and Hispanics should he win the Republican nomination. The downfall of recent Republican Presidential nominees is that they bent over so far backwards to get the vote of the Tea Party zealots they became virtually unelectable in the general election. However, the question is, can any candidate alienate the far right Republican base and still gain the nomination especially in this election's packed field.

However, as pointed by the other posters he has the backing of the establishment wing of the Republican Party and he consequently has far more money to spend than any other Republican candidate. In past Republican Presidential nomination processes it was the far right base that made the the most noise, but it was the establishment candidate who won the nomination. However, in the past the establishment candidate at least paid lip service to the Tea Party types so this is a whole new ball game.

As for the Bush name, as I wrote in a recent blog entry on cajunscomments.com, "The Bush Name – A Great Asset and a Great Liability", his family associations is both a blessing and a curse. Does anyone believe that Jeb would have been elected Governor of Florida without his dad's name and connection? I doubt it. However, even many Republicans believe that George W's eight years were a disaster and anything that reminds of that era are not welcome. Jeb's recent inability to make a clean break from W's foreign policy blunders hasn't helped his cause.

Frankly I think that Jeb would be among the strongest competitors and I think many Republicans believe that as well even though they would rather someone who is more ideologically pure. I would personally rather that the Republicans nominate an Ideologically pure candidate (someone easy to beat) so I am hope Jeb and perhaps one are two of the others don't break out of the pack and remain in the running when it becomes a two or three candidate race for the nomination. Then electability will become a much bigger consideration among Republican voters and Jeb could rise to the top.

[Liberal_in_LA]

40. kick for.more voting

[Dems to Win]

41. If it's Bush v. Clinton, I suspect Bush will win in a very low turnout election

Bush v. Clinton will be the lowest voter turnout ever for a presidential contest, I anticipate. Dems need high turnout to win, so I think Jeb will take it.

Also note that if it's Bush v. Clinton, there will be a 2.5 billion dollar loser. Raising tons of money is no guarantee of victory.

Bernie can beat Jeb, imho. If we want to win, we'll nominate Sanders.

[ellisonz]

42. ...

[Nye Bevan]

43. If the Bush who started the Iraq war can be elected a little over a year later,

his brother can certainly be elected 13 years later. Once you're in the playoffs, anyone can win it all.

[Spirochete]

44. Well, the Bush family

does tend to buy and steal elections, so there's always a significant risk.

[ellisonz]

45. Anyone feeling differently threatened?