Citizen's United, FTA/TPP, and the ACA: How things come in threes

[davidpdx]

Please don't get me wrong, I love my country, and I support our president. But a multitude of factors are going to buckle under us if the next domino falls. Money has been injected into politics to the point where elections can be bought more easily than they could before. The worst trade deal in the history of the United States written by special interests (large corporations) will pass the Senate and be signed into law now that the fast-track authority has been granted. Yet that third thing lingers. Will the last domino fall?

I believe it is most likely going to be a negative ruling on the ACA (Obamacare if you will) saying that the subsidies are not legal under the federal exchange. The ACA was the single biggest achievement (certainly not his only one) of President Obama's two terms in office. In the next week or so, the ruling will be announced. Having four solidly liberal judges on the bench who will vote for the ACA, that leaves the question of whether one of the conservative judges will join them. Immediately I would dismiss Thomas, Scalia, and Alito as they will vote against the ACA. That leaves Roberts and Kennedy. Given that Kennedy has expressed skepticism about the subsidies, we are left with Roberts. Will the Chief Justice save Obamacare as he did in prior rulings? I can't tell you for sure. But if he votes no, the single biggest accomplishment of the Obama Presidency is flushed down the toilet and millions will lose their healthcare.

No matter what race, religion, age, income, or who the fuck you support for the next president, these three issues will continue to push our country into an economic abyss.

I hope I am wrong. I can't say that enough times. But I'm becoming very cynical.

[Hoyt]

1. I think even this Supreme Court will recognize Congressional intent and uphold the subsidies.

Clearly some states were too cheap and/or too stupid to design their own exchanges, that's why the federal exchange was offered.

[Rstrstx]

2. We'll find out in a few days

The only thing that leaves me slightly apprehensive about King v Burwell was Obama bringing it up a few weeks ago in Germany, as if he was putting some sort of pressure on one of the judges to change their minds. I was (and still am) pretty comfortable that they will let the subsidies continue one way or another. Too many have too much to lose, including the insurance companies and big hospitals, and the Roberts court has been pretty predictable in not making life difficult for big business.

I also didn't hear much in the oral arguments that would lead me to think that Kennedy or Roberts felt compelled to side with the plaintiffs. Kennedy was very concerned that the states could be unduly coerced by their weird interpretation, and the single substantive question Roberts asked - whether a future administration could reverse the IRS ruling - doesn't bode well for the petitioners (Roberts in the original ACA case made the point of deferring big political decisions like this to elections and not the courts).

But note that if King is upheld on federalism grounds it may be a costly victory for the administration as it could put the shackles on a number of federal agencies, particularly the EPA. And it should not be in the least bit surprising for this court in general (and John Roberts in particular) to do something very much along those lines. Any thief will tell you the best way to steal something is to distract people when and where they least expect it.