Am I the only one who thinks that Bernie doesn't need to convert Hillary voters? updated

[hootinholler]

Last edited Wed Jun 24, 2015, 07:28 PM - Edit history (1)

The way I see the topology is that Bernie will attract enough of the disaffected and apathetic sometimes voters that any votes he gets from converting Hillary supporters will be gravy.

I'm basing this on the polling that shows high "don't know" numbers in the do you support questions. I'm thinking that if we can register new voters and get the message to those people who are registered but unmotivated that will be enough to win the primary.

Edit to add:

My apologies, I got called away right after I posted this. I just now realized I wasn't clear, I'm talking about the primary here, not the general election.

[immoderate]

1. That could work.

AFAIK, primary voters are about 10% of the normal electorate. If that is true, you are right.

--imm

[randys1]

2. To win in the general election he absolutely needs the base.

Plus not sure why it matters, the vast majority of Hillary voters would vote for Bernie anyway, they know the consequences if they dont

[Grilled Charlie]

3. I think Bernie will win over supporters from very unexpected demographics

Because his message is clear and universal, his hands are clean and he radiates sincerity

[FSogol]

4. Saul of Taurus, is that you?

[azmom]

5. I do too.

[Avalux]

6. No you're not.

I am choosing to think that this election cycle will be atypical, and the status quo will get a jolt. It will hinge on young voters who typically don't turn out in large numbers. I read this article yesterday, and I've been talking with my kids and their friends, so I'm encouraged.

http://inthesetimes.com/article/18001/6-lessons-for-the-u.s.-from-spains-democratic-revolution

[SaranchaIsWaiting]

12. Great read at that link. Thank you. nt

[Gothmog]

7. Bernie is poilling 15% in the polls that I have seen

That level of support does not bode well for Sanders being the nominee

How will you get this message out without adequate funding? I have yet to see an intelligent explanation as to how Sanders will have a viable general election campaign. Money is important and you can not presuade undecided voters without significant advertising and outreach

[Grilled Charlie]

10. Money = free speech model

You have to repay your investors.

In Bernie's case - if he is able to raise enough money to compete, it will be a feat in itself and demonstrate that he has enormous popular backing. Bernie will repay his investors- The people- by fighting for them.

Corporate sponsored candidates will be expected to to repay their investors also. Corporate sponsored candidates will do this by fighting for the rights of corporations.

[jwirr]

20. Primary votes depend on polls of the state you are voting in. So at the moment the only polls that

matter are Iowa and New Hampshire. Things do not look so bad there. The figure you are talking about is a nation wide figure at a time when many primaries are far away. The voters in those states are not listening yet but they will be. One step at a time.

As to the money - you are saying that there will be no money for Bernie in the general. Are you saying that the DNC will not be working for him? Are you saying that once he is nominated that more people will not donate to him? Maybe even some of our richer Democratic supporters. I think it is premature to decide that people will not support him. Why not wait till the first primaries are over to give up.

I happen to think that getting big money is a liability not a plus. Too many people see it as money as usual. We are tired of bought and paid for candidates. Our Democratic candidates need to consider the difference in attitude today from years before.

[MohRokTah]

8. .

[Ed Suspicious]

31. This guy. /\

[passiveporcupine]

34. Are you having fun?

[BeanMusical]

42. This town needs an enema.

[lame54]

9. Bernie just needs to be Bernie...

with this excruciatingly long political season - time is on his side

people will come around

[dreamnightwind]

11. He absolutely needs to win over Hillary voters

We aren't going to register that many new Democrats, nor get that many non-voters to the polls, she is at 85% or so. Bringing new voters to the polls will help, but not nearly enough.

I think much of Hillary's support is soft, so it might be possible to win a lot of them over, once they are convinced that Sanders is a viable alternative rather than a marginal Kucinich type of candidate. I think Bernie can do that, he is a very serious candidate and a hard working campaigner. He'll need all the help from us he can get.

[McCamy Taylor]

13. Worked for Ross Perot. He pulled new voters to the polls.

[BlueStreak]

14. Who are "Hillary voters"?

That isn't the same thing as "people who will vote for Hillary if she is on the ballot against Donald Trump, or even Jeb Bush. Most of us will do that, and I'd like to believe most of America will do that.

But really, how many people are there out there who was saying, "I am so excited. I just can't wait for a chance to cast a vote for another Clinton running against another Bush, both of whom will support more or less the same policies that are put forward by the aristocracy of this country, which is in direct conflict with the average American" ?

There are some people who say "Men have messed things up for 250 years. It is time to try a woman." I am sympathetic to that argument. But I simply point out that this really isn't driven by any particular belief that Hillary will do anything different. And I am not so sure there is very deep passion for that support.

I know exactly why I would support Bernie. I really don't know why I would support Hillary other than as the usual lesser-of-evils proposition, we might as well have a woman in the mix.

Personally I am not looking forward to yet another election based on triangulation. I would much rather see Sanders V. Cruz or Warren V. Paul. That would force the country to actually think about their choice.

[RoccoR5955]

18. +1! n/t

[Aerows]

21. You got that right!

"I am so excited. I just can't wait for a chance to cast a vote for another Clinton running against another Bush"

I can't imagine too many people in the US are anxious to see that happen.

[Fred Sanders]

25. "...we might as well have a woman in the mix." Lost me.

[BlueStreak]

40. I'm saying, at this point, I don't see any particular reason

to be enthusiastic about Hillary other than the fact that she can win (that's important) and that she is a woman (that's important too).

But as a candidate she has not given any indication she would be different in any fundamental way than the last 4 or 5 Presidents. Yes there are differences, but in the end, they are all pro-aristocat, pro-multi-national, and anti-middle class.

Given a choice between the Hillary version of pro-aristocracy and the Marco Rubio version, I will certainly prefer the Hillary version. But that's really not much of a choice.

I am not discounting the importance of having the WH occupied by a right-winger (Hillary) versus an insanely right-winger (any of the Republicans), but I really don't care much for that pair of options. I will not dispute that President Hillary would help block some of the worst legislation that the Republicans would try to advance, and President Hillary would nominate a far right-win SCOTUS justice instead of an insane person like Scalia. So if you want to argue lesser of evils, I will give you that and I will vote for her on that basis if that's how it goes down. But there is nothing for me to be enthusiastic about.

[Fred Sanders]

43. Your perception of Clinton on the political spectrum is severely skewed, which is why such opinions can not be

taken seriously by the majority of the Democratic Party.

I very much value that a liberal woman married to a liberal twice elected President may ascend to the WH in the same way I very much value a black man married to liberal values, peace and justice in the WH, it is my simple minded thinking at work.

Why do I have to keep explaining this?

[BlueStreak]

44. You have to keep "explaining" it because it isn't true.

The Clintons are Center-Right triangulators. Hillary is to the right of Obama, and he is far to the right of mainstream America.

What we have here is a case where we know exactly where the public stands on a broad spectrum of issues from gun control, climate change, wall street accountability, family planning, foreign trade agreements, investment in education, investment in infrastructure, the roles of the various states and quasi-states in the Middle East, tax fairness, health care and many other issues. People like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are branded (by the corporate-controlled media) as being radicals, but in fact, their positions are very much in line with the broad American public on almost all of these issues. Even Rand Paul is closer to the American public on some of those issues than either Obama or the Clintons.

That's how I perceive it anyway, and I don't think I am alone on that. I suppose there is time for Hillary to redefine herself but I don't think that is the political advice she will be receiving. Clearly she hopes to not have to take any progressive/populist positions and slide through the primary process as if it were a coronation. My goal is to do everything I can to force her to actually participate in the process and be accountable for real positions.

Again, I know why I should support Bernie. I have no idea why I should support Hillary. I don't dislike her. I just don't see any commitment from her to fight for the things that are most important to me.

Let me remind everyone that we won control over all three branches when Obama was campaigning for serious changes. We lost 2 of the three branches because of Obama's record of timidity. We will not win back either house with a timid candidate.

[leftofcool]

26. 92% of Democrats that's who.

You might want to take a look at the latest polls

[BlueStreak]

41. Rather than responding to my subject line, please read the full text.

I addressed your point, I believe. 92% of Dems are not wildly enthusiastic about Hillary. 92% may pledge to vote for her if that is our only choice.

[hootinholler]

39. I'm sorry, I wasn't clear I'm only trying to talk about the primary here.

Of course he will need every vote in the general.

[hifiguy]

15. I think you have a good point, hoot.

Bernie's appeal is going to be people who are disaffected, possibly or probably not participating in the system, who have been waiting for someone to tell them the truth and propose some real solutions. People who are tired of fine-tuned, focus-grouped bullshit that uses many words to say absolutely nothing of substance.

A significant portion of the HRC supporters are going to vote for her even if she co-hosts a live kitten barbeque with Darth Cheney. To many of them, facts, associations, record and policy do not matter. It's all about her - presumably as some kind of a symbol. For a few it verges on the cultish.

That is one of the things I like most about Bernie - he makes everything about the people. I can't imagine anyone running for the presidency who is less about himself and a cult of personality than he is.

[JI7]

16. that would mean he would need non democratic voters

And people who just don't vote.

But yes in terms of numbers there are enough out there.

But in terms of reality is not going to happen.

[RoccoR5955]

17. I think that Mrs. Clinton's supporters will come around

once Bernie's numbers go up. We have not seen the end of his upsurge. Wait for Mrs. Clinton's numbers to drop, and then we shall see how many people want to side with the more popular candidate.
I also think that there is an opportunity to register new Democratic Party members with the fact that Bernie has a 30+ year reputation of doing, as well as talking. Once people find out this, they will vote for him.
This is a golden opportunity for the 99% to show the 1% just what can be accomplished by WE THE PEOPLE.
They may have more dollars, but we have more voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Res ipsa loquitur

What primary? 92 percent of Democrats are comfortable voting for Hillary.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/06/23/theres-a-new-poll-number-that-shows-just-how-likely-hillary-clinton-is-to-be-the-democratic-nominee/

[PatrickforO]

22. If we're able to get Bernie's message out, he'll do well with independents, too.

[avebury]

23. I am a reigstered Independent and I will re-register as a Democrat

just so that I can vote for Bernie Sanders in the primary. I support him 100%. I am not even bothering to pay attention to any other candidate (no matter what their political affiliation).

In the past I have been a debate junkie and have multi-tasked to watch then on the TV, follow the comments on Twitter, follow the focus groups and so on. 2016 is the first Presidential election that all I want to know are the dates of the Primary and Election. Beyond that I will totally tune out once 2016 hits. I will find the political process to be too painful to invest energy in it.

[Fuddnik]

32. Exactly what my wife and I did.

We switched from Dem to No Party Affiliation in 2007, after we got sold out by the New Dem Congress.

Now, we've got our new registration cards, just to vote for Bernie.

[madokie]

24. No doubt in my mind

Bernie is going to win this. No way are there enough Voters for Hillary. Pretty much to the person who ever it is I talk to, young, old, repub or dem they all say the same thing. I cannot trust Hillary and I won't vote for her. Across the board that is all I hear. I'm not sure where all this supposedly support for Hillary is coming from but I simply don't see it. Kinda like the last time she ran she was tooted as a shoo in but then when the counting was done she fell way short. Her voice grates on me way more today than it did 8 years ago and I think that is true with a lot of people. Too wishy washy. Too quick to do whatever the weather vane suggest. No core values or very few when it comes right down to it

Bernie is our next POTUS

[MADem]

27. O'Malley doesn't need to convert them either. HRC voters will vote for the nominee, whosoever

she or he may be.

[MisterP]

28. his plan is that it's the 60-70% of Americans that the parties have left behind that he's targeting

plus a lot of those counted as "Hillary supporters" at this point aren't in it for any of her policies, good or bad: it's the party riding on accomplishments from 50 years ago (accomplishments today's party high-ups would burn to the ground in a heartbeat if the polls flipped from 49/51% to 51/49%), people who assume she'd just win the primary anyway, and people who think Bernie's running a third-party campaign and it's not a primary at all (or even know he's running)

[heaven05]

29. this TPP vote

should lose her backing from many democrats. Bernie seems to be the only hope for decent, economically struggling americans with a conscience and principle.Huge letdown from what I know of the TPP that has been leaked. Also so many against it should start alarm bell ringing. Money is king and the oligarchs own the king.

[RDANGELO]

30. I think he needs to get some, not a lot.

I'm sure there are some soft supporters of her that could swing to Bernie, who don't really know much about him right now.

[Omaha Steve]

33. A new MSNBC analyst is born on the DU

K&R!

OS

[Cleita]

35. IMHO, I don't want to convert Hillary voters who really know who she is and what she stands for.

We Bernie supporters are trying to move away from that kind of Third Way politics in the Democratic Party. We need the true progressives rallying around Bernie and frankly I believe they are the majority.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

38. Yeah, but don't you know Dems have to win Florida???

The Republicans have Jeb and all we would have is....



....a typical shuffleboard partner.

[AllTooEasy]

36. Unfortunately, you aren't the only one who believes that crap!

Bernie ABSOLUTELY needs to win over Hillary supporters! You're logic is a major stretch. It's more likely that current "don't knows", unmotivated voters, and new registrations will split evenly between Bernie and Hillary. O'Malley will also take some of the Hillary resisters from Bernie.

Bernie HAS TO convert Hillary voters. I believe he will, and he's doing it. A Warren endorsement would help. He can't afford to rest on his laurels on any front!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

37. I met some Hillary voters who said she had BETTER win this time or ELSE....

Which I took as a threat to breakables in the room.