My wife was talking yesterday to a Greek business associate...

[brooklynite]

...who's heading back for the referendum.

His estimate: 70% will support the bailout deal.

Syriza is -not- that popular, and won only 36% of the vote.

[geek tragedy]

1. Could be Pauline Kael syndrome . . . nt

[brooklynite]

2. Considering that 63% voted against the Government in the January election...

...seems like a reasonable estimate.

[geek tragedy]

5. SYRIZA voters won't be the only no votes. nt

[KingCharlemagne]

3. Um, the KKE (Communist Party) will never support the referendum either. IIRC, KKE

earned some 10% of the vote in the last round of elections, but declined to enter into the coalition with Syriza. So your wife's business associate's estimate seems woefully off the mark.

[Warpy]

4. Hard to say, businessmen often have blinders on

that keep them from noticing what people who are not businessmen are going to do.

Syriza got 36% of the last election but that was up from something like 2%. People there are sick to death of being punished because their leaders were bribed (yes BRIBED) by multinational corporations to take on debt to buy things like military hardware and infrastructure projects that served only the few.

I think they'll probably vote for the bailout, better the devil you know and all that. I don't think they'll vote for it by that large a margin.

The way life is deteriorating there, they won't vote for the next one and yes, there will be a next one. The IMF learned nothing from its bungling in Argentina 14 years ago.

[brooklynite]

7. I'm willing to accept that premise...

...if you're willing to accept that a bunch of political bloggers in the US are just as likely to bias their analysis of what's happening in Greece based on their own preferences, and have far less actual knowledge of the situation.

[Warpy]

12. Of course

but I, too, have friends there.

[DetlefK]

8. Political underdogs can rise high and fall deep. Example: Germany.

The FDP ("Free Democratic Party&quot is a german party. Made always about 10% at the polls. Pro civil-rights, anti-war, small-government, capitalism and liberalism.

When the recession happened, almost everybody agreed that capitalism had failed and that we need more regulations for the economy. Except for the FDP: They claimed, the problem wasn't not enough regulations, it was TOO MANY regulations. Their steadfastness impressed the voters and they made 18% in the polls, a historic high.

The FDP figured "The people have spoken! The people want capitalism!".
The FDP was the junior-partner in Merkel's coalition-government and kept pestering them with suggestions for less regulations and more capitalism. Germany was polarized, but the majority was still on the side for more regulations and the FDP didn't exactly make friends with their arrogant behaviour.

The next election they went from 18% to 4%, below the 5%-threshold needed to enter parliament.
The first time in half a century that the FDP is not in parliament. And right after scoring their best result ever.

[Warpy]

11. Yes, they can, especially when they don't produce positive results

or have enough of a propaganda arm to convince people that they do.

That's going to be Syriza's downfall, they keep dragging this out when the people who voted them in were hoping they'd tell the troika to fuck off and die along with the Eruos and political bribes they rode in on.

[joshcryer]

6. May not even come to a referendum.

Prediction markets are saying if it does though it will pass.

[WDIM]

9. The best thing Greece can do is default on the IMF

IMF is nothing but worldwide organized crime that extorts and exploits the needy. Greece and the rest of the world should reject the legitimacy of these gangsters and refuse to pay the billionaire class any more money.

[joshcryer]

10. Heh, Greece calls for third bailout...

...Syriza fans on the internet (probably not even Greek) are losing their shit.

[magical thyme]

13. oopsie. apparently your 1%er Greek business associate

isn't associating with the 61%.

[brooklynite]

16. Funny, if they had voted for it, they'd have gotten a better deal...

...than the one the Government proposed today.

[magical thyme]

17. none of the deals they have offered is acceptable because all are guaranteed to fail.

Varoufakis rejected the last deal for one reason alone: it did not include the debt restructuring that the IMF said 5 years ago -- and has reiterated in recent days -- is absolutely necessary to enable Greece to climb out of the hole.

It really is that simple. ~90% of the the "loans to Greece" were directed by the Troika not to Greece, but to bailout private banks. They turned private losses into public debt, and then imposed austerity that ensured GDP would shrink faster than the debt.

The IMF predicted this outcome 5 years ago.

Doubling down on austerity will only continue the same disaster, but faster.

[KamaAina]

14. So much for that brilliant plan.

[magical thyme]

15. kicking for its brilliant

OP is right about one thing. Some people on DU really do have zero idea what's going on in Greece.

[Art_from_Ark]

18. I wouldn't say "zero" idea

More like "1%" idea...