The Automatic Earth: The Troika Turns Europe Into A Warzone

[GliderGuider]

The Troika Turns Europe Into A Warzone

So now they do it. Now the IMF comes out with a report that says Greece needs hefty debt restructuring.

It’s even been clear for many years to the IMF that debt restructuring for Greece is badly needed, but Lagarde and her troops have come to the Athens talks with an agenda, and stonewalled their own researchers.

Why go through 5 months of ‘negotiations’ with Greece in which you refuse any and all restructuring, only to come up with a paper that says they desperately need restructuring, mere days after they explicitly say they won’t sign any deal that doesn’t include debt restructuring?

For five whole months the troika refuses to talk debt relief, and mere days after the talks break off they come with this? What then was their intention going into the talks? Certainly not to negotiate, that much is clear, or the IMF would have spoken up a long time ago.

At the very least, all Troika negotiators had access to this IMF document prior to submitting the last proposal, which did not include any debt restructuring, and which caused Syriza to say it was unacceptable for that very reason.

Meanwhile, things are getting out of hand here. It’s not just the grandmas who can’t get to their pensions anymore, rumor has it that within days all cash will be gone from banks. And then what? Oh, that’s right, then there’s a referendum. Which will now effectively be held in a warzone.

It’s insane to see even Greeks claim that this is Alexis Tsipras’ fault, but given the unrelenting anti-Syriza ‘reporting’ in western media as well as the utterly corrupted Greek press, we shouldn’t be surprised.

[GliderGuider]

1. A comment on the article by Nicole Foss

An imperium feeds on its periphery, hollowing it out until the shell that remains collapses in on itself. Greece is the first, or at least the most visible, casualty of that process, but it won’t be the last. As the periphery is sucked dry, the centre will starve. The centre and the periphery are not determined geographically by lines on a map. The centre is the financial system, which has evolved from a highly effective parasite to an all-consuming monstrosity. That centre is laying claim to the underlying real wealth in a highly under collateralized world, where there is far too little underlying real wealth to satisfy more than a fraction of the outstanding promises it ostensibly backs.

Europe is currently in the forefront of financial crisis, but it is by no means the only part of the world facing catabolic collapse. The hollowing out performed by decades of ponzi dynamics has been very thorough, and the dominos are beginning to fall.

[jtuck004]

2. In other words, this show is coming soon to a station near you.

Actually, I think it already is. Far too many people live on the brink now, or have gone over and are just sliding...

The problem is so large and would require such a large investment and restructuring at this point, that I think it is impossible without collapse.

[phantom power]

4. "The centre and the periphery are not determined geographically by lines on a map"

Trantor - "the other end of the galaxy"

[Betty Karlson]

8. Chilling comment, but undeniable and faultless.

Can we reverse the process by some extra restructuring?

[GliderGuider]

9. Can we reverse the process?

Not at this point. We could stave off European collapse perhaps by another decade by clever restructuring of PIIGS debt, but ultimately it's all going down. IMO the world is already over the edge - the forces arrayed against the possibility of a global economic restructuring are just too strong right now. It will take a first round of national collapses in the developed world to weaken their hold enough to let the forces of reason and altruism prevail. But of course, what will the condition of the world's people be in a situation like that?

It's not good. Not good at all.

[Betty Karlson]

11. Sounds like War is saddling up.

Apocalyps: coming to a world near you.

[GliderGuider]

12. I used to think War was only a distant possibility

Especially compared to the looming threat of climate-induced Famine. I've changed my opinion. From my seat in the bleachers it looks like those two Horsemen are riding neck and neck down the home stretch.

[Betty Karlson]

13. Famine and War? Expect Disease to gallop up the road any time then.

War and Famine have a tendency to revive - between them - some of the good old classics: dyphteria, infant mortality, and certain variaties of influenza. Even the Plague could make a comeback (it's already been attested among rodents in California).

[GliderGuider]

15. It's getting harder every day to put on that happy face, isn't it? nt

[Betty Karlson]

16. I'll try to enjoy the happy days while they last. n/t

[FlatBaroque]

19. The other two are not far behind. n/t

[tblue37]

29. And, of course, with the level of environmental degradation that cancerous capitalism has

created, rebuilding the level of civilization that was based on material plenty and cheap energy once the catastrophic global collapse has occurred is going to be difficult, probably impossible.

I will be 65 next month. I might not be around when the very worst consequences are realized, but my children and grandchildren and other much loved younger friends and family will be, and I fear and grieve for them and their likely fate. I am already overwhelmed by the suffering and death caused by our exploitation of the weak and vulnerable, and by the suffering and death our species' domination of the planet visits on so many other creatures.

[KingCharlemagne]

30. A poem by a very wise, old Turkish Commnist may help a little:

On Living

I
Living is no laughing matter:
you must live with great seriousness
like a squirrel, for example—
I mean without looking for something beyond and above living,
I mean living must be your whole occupation.
Living is no laughing matter:
you must take it seriously,
so much so and to such a degree
that, for example, your hands tied behind your back,
your back to the wall,
or else in a laboratory
in your white coat and safety glasses,
you can die for people—
even for people whose faces you’ve never seen,
even though you know living
is the most real, the most beautiful thing.
I mean, you must take living so seriously
that even at seventy, for example, you’ll plant olive trees—
and not for your children, either,
but because although you fear death you don’t believe it,
because living, I mean, weighs heavier.

II
Let’s say we’re seriously ill, need surgery—
which is to say we might not get up
from the white table.
Even though it’s impossible not to feel sad
about going a little too soon,
we’ll still laugh at the jokes being told,
we’ll look out the window to see if it’s raining,
or still wait anxiously
for the latest newscast . . .
Let’s say we’re at the front—
for something worth fighting for, say.
There, in the first offensive, on that very day,
we might fall on our face, dead.
We’ll know this with a curious anger,
but we’ll still worry ourselves to death
about the outcome of the war, which could last years.
Let’s say we’re in prison
and close to fifty,
and we have eighteen more years, say,
before the iron doors will open.
We’ll still live with the outside,
with its people and animals, struggle and wind—
I mean with the outside beyond the walls.
I mean, however and wherever we are,
we must live as if we will never die.

III
This earth will grow cold,
a star among stars
and one of the smallest,
a gilded mote on blue velvet—
I mean this, our great earth.
This earth will grow cold one day,
not like a block of ice
or a dead cloud even
but like an empty walnut it will roll along
in pitch-black space . . .
You must grieve for this right now
—you have to feel this sorrow now—
for the world must be loved this much
if you’re going to say “I lived”. . .

~Nazim Hikmet

[jwirr]

44. That is so beautiful. Especially the line "we must live as lf we will never die". When was this

written?

[KingCharlemagne]

52. 1948, while Hikmet was serving a prison term under a very brutal Turkish

regime. (He was released from prision in 1950, IIRC.)

Our allies, the Turks, tortured the fuck out of him while he was in captivity. But it was all in service of anti-communism, see, so no harm, no foul.

[jwirr]

53. Thank you. That is intersting - and sad.

[KingCharlemagne]

58. OT, but another one you may enjoy:

Some Advice to Those Who Will Serve Time in Prison

If instead of being hanged by the neck
you’re thrown inside
for not giving up hope
in the world, your country, and people,
if you do ten or fifteen years
apart from the time you have left,
you won’t say,
“Better I had swung from the end of a rope
like a flag”--
you’ll put your foot down and live.
It may not be a pleasure exactly,
but it’s your solemn duty
to live one more day
to spite the enemy.
Part of you may live alone inside,
like a stone at the bottom of a well.
But the other part
must be so caught up
in the flurry of the world
that you shiver there inside
when outside, at forty days’ distance, a leaf moves.
To wait for letters inside,
to sing sad songs,
or to lie awake all night staring at the ceiling
is sweet but dangerous.
Look at your face from shave to shave,
forget your age,
watch out for lice
and for spring nights,
and always remember
to eat every last piece of bread--
also, don’t forget to laugh heartily.
And who knows,
the woman you love may stop loving you.
Don’t say it’s no big thing:
it’s like the snapping of a green branch
to the man inside.
To think of roses and gardens inside is bad,
to think of seas and mountains is good.
Read and write without rest,
and I also advise weaving
and making mirrors.
I mean, it’s not that you can’t pass
ten or fifteen years inside
and more--
you can,
as long as the jewel
on the left side of your chest doesn’t lose its luster!

~Nazim Hikmet

[jwirr]

61. "to live one more day to spite the enemy." Wow. None of us is without a cause.

[KingCharlemagne]

62. Yeah, Hikmet has quickly vaulted to the top of my list of favorite poets. (Thanks to

Chris Hedges for first turning me on to him.) I can only dream of writing a piece 1/10 as powerful.

[jwirr]

64. I will never be able to write that kind of poetry either. But at least some have the gift.

[GliderGuider]

32. It's all connected

Last edited Fri Jul 3, 2015, 12:18 PM - Edit history (1)

Climate change, the death of the oceans, rising extinction rates and biodiversity loss, the decimation of soil fertility and fresh water supplies, financial shenanigans, political instability, the rise of disaster capitalism - they are all results of the enormous fossil-fuel driven overgrowth of human civilization since the end of WWII.

In order to have prevented this outcome we would have had to deny people the chance to exploit that growth opportunity. It's not in our evolved nature to limit our growth in times of surplus. No other animal on the planet does that, and we're no different in that respect. So here we are.

[jwirr]

46. But we do have the ability to change our ways before we totally self-destruct.

It is more that we do not seem to have the will to survive if we cannot continue our selfish highlife. That may be why collapse is the only thing that can cause us to reevaluate our way of life. Many of us are already doing that but we are still in control of the money makers and multi-national corporations and their politicians so our small efforts at change seem to make little difference.

IMO I think that all over the world we have the basis of a new more sane world growing in small corners and ignored. Yet it is there to show the way when the other less sustainable world does collapse. My family has been building a small cooperative farm project to help feed our family. It has it's ups and downs but for the most part we do pretty good. Many of our neighbors are now planting their gardens and trying out sustainability on a small scale. One even has a bigger greenhouse than we do. These are the kinds of projects that will lead the way in any total collapse that comes. I think that it is interesting that some of the answers are growing up right inside the crumbling old structure. I suspect it has always happened that way.

BTW I was interested in the Biblical four horseman analogy but I am assuming that both of your are talking about human nature rather than the actual Biblical prophesy of the end of all things. It always angers me to think that rw Biblical rapture prophets are the very ones who push the causes that will bring about the collapse.

[GliderGuider]

49. Yes, the Horsemen is an archetypal metaphor.

I've spend the last decade looking fairly deeply at why humanity has not been able to turn around our accelerating devastation of the planet. My conclusion, based on findings from anthropology, evolutionary biology and psychology, and complex systems science is that we are not capable of taking the collective decisions to accommodate degrowth unless it has already begun involuntarily. Individuals can make such decisions, but there are inherent, evolved constraints in social thinking and social behaviour that make it virtually impossible for groups of more than about 150 (Dunbar's Number) to follow suit. Once the collapse has begiun, such small groups may form nuclei around which different social patterns develop that accommodate life in a constrained world.

[FlatBaroque]

20. It would be very instructive to watch Greece closely

we will benefit from learnng how to cope when it's our turn.

[KingCharlemagne]

34. Socialist Revolution! Expropriate the means of production and place it

under the control of workers' councils.

[bemildred]

26. Pretty much.

One must note the continuing lack of clue among the ruling elites too, they all cling to power and do nothing.

[kelliekat44]

3. "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" (John Perkins). a must read. nt

[randome]

5. "It’s insane to see even Greeks claim that this is Alexis Tsipras’ fault..." Really?

The 'genius' who tried to get Germany to pay their debts for them instead of bringing an honorable viewpoint to the table? And then decided not to make any decision at all but let the populace decide?

The IMF certainly is not a perfect organization but Tsipras is an idiot and a poor excuse for a leader.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]"The whole world is a circus if you know how to look at it."
Tony Randall, 7 Faces of Dr. Lao (1964)[/center][/font][hr]

[GliderGuider]

10. "De fides non est disputandum"

There is no arguing with belief...

[KingCharlemagne]

18. Did you even bother to read the goddamned article? The IMF's own economists knew Greek

debt would have to be restructured (exactly what Tsipras was saying and asking for), but the IMF's political leadership refused to allow debt restructuring while negotiations were ongoing. We have a word for that perfidy in the English language but it's not suitable for mixed company.

[GliderGuider]

23. It’s pretty hard for people to understand something that conflicts with their deeply held beliefs.

The words are all there, but it’s hard for the significance to sink in.

[KingCharlemagne]

27. People lives are literally at stake and for anyone calling him- or herself a

Progressive to even remotely sympathise with the Troika staggers the imagination and depresses the fuck out of me.

[GliderGuider]

28. It's not the first time a DU poster has shocked me that way.

But then I've been a (-10, -10) on the Political Compass test for years, so most progressive views tend to look a little reactionary to me.

[ananda]

31. Same here. "Progressive" is quite a buzz word ...

... assuming liberal leftism is some kind of bete noir akin to .. gasp .. communism.

What seems to be in the cards is a collapsing society left without capital, which historically has been proven to be both a condition and a harbinger for nazi-like extremism and war.

Noam Chomsky spoke about this with Amy Goodman. See: http://www.alternet.org/economy/noam-chomsky-austerity-just-class-war

Also see the more recent show here: http://www.democracynow.org/2015/6/30/as_greece_heads_for_default_voters

[GliderGuider]

35. There is a big sale on clues going on right now.

Lots of people are buying them.

[1939]

39. Who will a Nazi or Soviet Greece go to war with? NT

[GliderGuider]

40. Greece wouldn't need to be one of the direct initiating parties.

World events have a habit of taking on lives of their own.

[ananda]

42. One big fear is that ..

.. barring successful negotiation, Greece would turn to Russia, Putin,
to resolve its debt.

I don't know if Greece's problems will turn its people far right in a
soviet or neo-nazi fashion, but there is a history behind such turns.

I also don't know what this will look like, but the growth of the far
right in France has taken a nasty turn against Jews and immigrants;
and Greece is an entry point for immigrants into Europe.

In any case, whatever the "solution" is, it won't be pretty and many
people will suffer. The economic and political powers that be have
essentially engineered this crisis, and they have probably taken into
account the possibilities and contingencies in their furtherance of their
global objectives.

Many dominoes are in place to fall after this one.

Not much real thinking is going into this process. I guess the rich and
corporate entities think that they will be immune from negative consequences,
seeing only the short-term benefit to themselves which they see as some
kind of entitlement in the wake of the disastrous results for whole countries
and their most vulnerable people.

But I don't think the rich and powerful are immune. When societies collapse
and a great number of people suffer catastrophically, the chaos effect will
have ramifications that those infected with the glamor of greed and power
simply cannot or refuse to take into account. Many have bought into safe
haven areas in order to escape it, but that is narrow solipsistic thinking to say
the least. It requires a numbing sociopathy that is totally anti-human, which
has its own consequences.

[GliderGuider]

43. Very astute analysis!

[ananda]

45. Also, I can't help but wonder ...

... how the ensuing chaos and dystopianism will affect the mental state of humans,
both individually and collectively.

In other words, if societies crack up, will minds follow?

Well, I sometimes think it's already happening, that there is some kind of egregore
operating on nearly all human minds now, individually and collectively. This has to
do with the memes we buy into without questioning them.

One seriously destructive meme, for example, is that of mechanism -- as opposed
to holism. The idea is that life and humans can be thought of scientifically as
machines. Thus, any problems can be treated as though the person can be divided
up and treated in their parts. Just the right pill, or combination of pills, will cure
whatever ails a person. This has its own set of consequences, of course. Just the
right kind of people in one's group will make a good society is another meme. This
was at the root of Nazism, and is operating now here in America where people
form communities based on race and ideology. Further, treat nature as a machine
and you get gmo's and bio-engineering in order to create the perfect result ... and
when it comes to people, what does that perfect result look like?

It's hard not to buy into mechanism these days. We've been well indoctrinated into
it. It might even be hard to believe that mechanism wasn't always the thought-form
that turned into the egregore we all live with now. In western society, it began with
Descartes' "beast-machine" and ended with la Mettrie's "human-machine," just about
the time that the industrial revolution was gaining ascendancy over more agrarian,
holistic ways of thinking and being. And now we have mechanism on steroids, due
to the advances of medicine and robotics. In futurist circles, our perfect human now
looks like some kind of Aryan AI, I guess... all the women blonde and pornworthy,
and all the men Trumplike versions of Brad Pitt. Eek.

[GliderGuider]

47. May you live in interesting times...

Yes, individual and collective psychoses are a likely result. And yes, they're already happening.

I think much of the American right-wing is in the grip of a collective psychosis. As times get harder, more people support authoritarianism as a bulwark against fear and uncertainty. I also think that true society-wide liberalism is only possible in times of surplus and growth. as a result I expect its appearance in the modern world to be very short-lived.

[jwirr]

50. True society-wide liberalism is only possible in times of surplus and growth. IMO that is the

mistake we have made in foreign policy - trying to export our way of life in a resource rich country to countries that have no means to sustain the process. Those countries may have been able to create a sustainable way of life if left in charge of the way their own countries developed.

[jwirr]

48. No one is immune to the effects of the four horsemen. It either makes them the most likely

target of the victims of the suffering or even the helpless victim when it comes to Pestilence.

[randome]

56. Where did I sympathize with the IMF? Where?

I call 'em as I see 'em. Tsipras is an idiot and he's made things worse for his country. I suppose all the Greeks blaming him are 'insane' as the author says, right?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Where do uncaptured mouse clicks go?[/center][/font][hr]

[GliderGuider]

57. I'm not arguing with your opinions.

You're welcome to them.

[KingCharlemagne]

60. Did you read the article? Tsipras called for the debt to be restructured, the IMF's own

economists said the debt would have to be restructured. Only the political leadership of the IMF refused to restructure the debt before the deadline. Why would any self-respecting economist continue to work for an IMF so clearly in the service of a neo-liberal economic agenda that it won't even do what its own economists tell it must be done???????

Fuck the Troika, fuck the Germans, fuck the ECB and fuck the EC. All doing their part to make their bankers whole, while real, live people suffer and, yes, die.

[GliderGuider]

63. I don't think he'd dispute that.

His point is that he thinks Tsipras is an idiot.

[randome]

54. I have NO deeply held beliefs that are not dependent on the situation, thank you.

Tsipris is an idiot.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Where do uncaptured mouse clicks go?[/center][/font][hr]

[GliderGuider]

59. No, I can see that. Thanks for clarifying. nt

[paleotn]

25. Even if Greece implements...

...even more extreme austerity and sells virtually all its assets to privateers it cannot pay back all that is owed. And where was Merkel, the ECB, the IMF and the rest of the dour finger waggers when prior Greek governments and the rest of the PIIGS were getting into this debt overload back in the go, go days? I certainly didn't hear any..."hey guys, you might want to cool it with the sovereign debt binge. Don't want to financially destabilize the EU you know."

I agree the referendum is a dumb idea, but why not ask the rest of the EU to help pay the debts. Greece certainly can't and it will destabilize the Euro whether Greece stays in the EU or not. It's a done deal. The question of "who's next, Portugal, Spain, Italy?" is already out there. In my mind, the EU either pulls together to maintain financial stability within their ranks or they just go ahead, admit it wasn't such a good idea after all, and disband the EU.

[randome]

55. Sure, but who wants to throw good money after bad?

The Greeks blame Tsipras for worsening the situation. Are they all 'insane' as the author of the article posits?

Until Greece takes measures -not necessarily the harsh austerity measures advocated by the IMF- then no one will trust them.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Where do uncaptured mouse clicks go?[/center][/font][hr]

[ancianita]

6. These EU chiselers set up Tsipras to look bad. Greeks should stand by him, mock Troika to the world.

[FlatBaroque]

22. I Agree. The only thing they should give to the banksters is a middle finger. n/t

[zeemike]

7. The objective is to own the world.

First you get them in deep debt then you take their land and resources to pay the debt.

The best example of this is the farm crisis.
Back in the 60s they told the family farmer that in order to make it they had to get big or get out of farming. And so many family farmers went into debt to go big and put their land up to do so...then prices dropped and the banks took the land.

Now Greece must sell their resources and land to pay the debt.

[jwirr]

51. Very good example and like the IMF it was the banksters who were advising those farmers.

[blackspade]

14. This is about destroying a socialist political movement...

That threatens the profits of the banksters.

[GliderGuider]

21. It didn’t start out that way.

The destruction of Syriza has become a highly emotional factor, but these wheels were set in motion long before Syriza gained power. In fact, they rose to power as a reaction to the hollowing-out that had been going on since 2004 - or even since 1999 if you consider the facilitation of the Greek book-keeping flim-flam to have been part of the setup.

IMO what we’re seeing is Naomi Klein’s Shock Doctrine or Disaster Capitalism being played out in a vulnerable developed nation. Vampire squids in action.

Der Spiegel: How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt

[tblue37]

33. Thank you GG for this important thread! nt

[moondust]

24. I've also wondered how much is politics.

Corporatist psychopaths may be trying to crush the socialist movement in Greece before it spreads and threatens their plans for global domination/neofeudalism.

[KingCharlemagne]

17. Awesome analysis and judgment. Thanks for posting and also the post

of the comment from Nicole Foss.

I hope Greece tells Germany to shove it up its ass.

[Igel]

36. Yes.

But if Greece tells Germany to shove it up its ass, what you may get is Germany shoving it up Greece's ass. Which is how it's working out so far.

(I love pronoun ambiguity in English. We really need better reflexives. This, coming from somebody who barely has reflexives in his own variety of English.)

[sulphurdunn]

37. I read something once, some time ago,

by someone supposedly in the know, that the earth could sustain the environmental depredations of modern civilization indefinitely with a permanent global population of about 250 million people.

[GliderGuider]

38. I did an analysis two years ago that was a bit more pessimistic than that

Depending on what one means by "sustainable" and how long the time period is, my view is that a truly sustainable world population is probably no more than 50 million. Most people think I'm overly pessimistic, but the analysis used 7 different techniques and I'm satisfied with that number.

There are two other positions, one on either side of that number. One is that that the Earth could support a billion people for a reasonable length of time, but could probably not rebuild its damaged biosphere with that number. The other position is that due to the combination of our inherent tendency towards growth (one that we share with all other biological organisms on Earth), and our incredible problem-solving brains (that we use mainly to overcome obstacles or limits to growth) there is no human population level that can be considered sustainable.

No really, how sustainable are we?

[sulphurdunn]

41. That would be a global

population estimate circa 1000 BCE. I'll read the link later. It looks interesting.