Alex Tsipras reminds me of George Costanza in the Seinfeld episode "The Watch".

[Nye Bevan]

"Let me see if I understand this. In other words, you held out for... less money."
"I was wrong, you were right."
"You know, the basic idea of negotiation, as I understand it, is to get your price to go up."
"You're smart, I'm dumb."
"You know, this is how they negotiate in the bizarro world."

- Jerry and George, in "The Watch"

http://www.pkmeco.com/seinfeld/watch.htm

[unblock]

1. easy to play armchair negotiator; but, we don't see all the moving parts.

or the immovable parts, as the case may be.

at this point, i think tsipras was justifying to his own constituency that he tried to be more than accommodating to the troika and that the troika left them with no alternative but to exit the euro.

in terms of greek politics, i'm guessing tsipras knows what he is doing. the troika is coming off as insensitive, tone-deaf, and frankly, stupid. greece has made it clear they are at an "enough is enough" point and the troika is clinging to the fantasy that they can largely be repaid in full. this may be politically necessary for them, but any banker can tell you that this is idiotic.

after the referendum, i expected the troika to make some reasonable accommodations, but i'll admit i misread the politics in places like finland. in any event, at this point, i think greece is poised to exit and tsipras will likely survive, at least for a while, because people will be far more pissed at merkel and others in the troika than at tsipras.

[FLPanhandle]

4. The only people who Merkel and others need care about is their own voters

The voters of other EU countries are fed up with funding Greece's spending and lack of tax reform.

If Tsipras didn't want austerity, he could have cleaned up Greece's bizarre tax laws, gone hard after tax cheats, raised taxes on the wealth, and stopped exempting lucrative industries (like shipping) from paying taxes.

He didn't. He is still trying to live off the other EU taxpayers and they, rightly, don't want to continue that.

[unblock]

5. uh, what? if he didn't want austerity he would have imposed it himself?

austerical propaganda to focus solely on the various greek tax loopholes.

every country, ours included, has loopholes and exemptions and varying levels of non-compliance. yes, greece would do well do clean up their own act in that department (as would we all), but you're trapped in austerical mentality if you believe that higher taxes will get greece out of their predicament.

it's been pointed out that greece already has a baseline surplus, so even if their tax system is unfair and/or inefficient, it's taking in more than they're spending.

the bottom line is that, raising taxes and sending the proceeds to the troika will only further depress the greek economy.


there are only 2 real solutions:
(a) exit the euro, let a new drachma be issued and let it devalue severely. this is painful as it wipes a ton of wealth away in a matter of days, but it is a proven path to right an economy.
(b) subsidize greece with enough to actually stimulate their economy. the half measures taken in the past, or (barely) contemplated recently will only extend and deepen the problem. kicking the can down the road leaving a bigger problem to solve later.

either way the troika does not get paid in full.

unfortunately, the politics of the situation are very different from the economics and finance of the situation.


at this point i see a greek exit as the best solution, painful as that may be for another few years....

[FLPanhandle]

10. The Greek exit is the best long term solution.

The EU tax payers will not subsidize Greece any longer. The public will not allow their elected leaders to do fund the Greeks spending anymore.

I think both parties want a divorce, this is all Kabuki Theater now.

[unblock]

13. the divorce analogy is a good one; the parties are certainly talking past each other.

[Baclava]

2. Athens offered 'temporary Grexit' if no deal - live updates

Greece is being pushed to accept and implement even more austerity measures and reforms, or get a ‘time-out’ from the euro

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/12/greek-debt-crisis-eu-leaders-meeting-cancelled-no-deal-live#block-55a2b47be4b07fc6a121fc54

[stevenleser]

3. From before his election as PM, my Greek friends were telling me that Tipras and Syriza had no idea

what they were doing. All they had was slogans. I wasn't sure if that was partisan rhetoric or if they (my friends) were right, so I watched, and Tsipras proved my friends right.

He has no idea what he is doing, he has no plan.

What you said was exactly right. And to make matters worse, Tsipras and Syriza slammed the Troika, threatened not to pay back the loans and at the same time were asking for more money.

Any clear thinking person can figure out that this is not a recipe for a good outcome.

[unblock]

6. everyone's a bit harsh on tsipras -- he has no power until he exits the euro

the problem is that all any greek leader could do was go begging to the troika, whose positions are by now quite hardened.

i think tsipras did what he could do to shake things up, and to show that greece was at a point of not accepting any more of the nonsense of the last five years.

assuming greece issues a new drachma, then its fate is finally in its own hands.

then we will see if tsipras knows what he is doing or not. but to judge him on the basis of his ability to grovel at the feet of incompetent lenders is at the least, premature.

[stevenleser]

7. That would make sense if that was his plan. It isn't. He doesnt want to exit the Euro. He spent

today begging Hollande and Merkel for a way to stay in the Eurozone.

[unblock]

12. not exactly; he's negotiating.

he wants to stay in the euro on terms that greece can accept. hence the need for the referendum, to show that greece won't accept simply anything.

if he hadn't demonstrated objection to further austerity, he couldn't be sure of getting the best deal the troika had to offer.

as it seems at the moment, the best deal the troika has to offer isn't one greece can accept, so an exit seems likely; but at least he will have shown his people that he tried. and it was the other side of the table that was being inflexible.

if tsipras capitulates to the germany's demand to fork over billions of assets in addition to even more austerity than greece has already put back on the table, then sure, i'll agree that he doesn't know what he is doing; either that of he's simply an opportunist who rode a wave of anti-austerity sentiment to power without any intention of acting faithfully to that sentiment.

[MFrohike]

8. Accurate

Add in the refusal to govern until a deal was done and the analogy is complete.

[herding cats]

9. That's what it's looking like.

I don't know what to say. He fired up a portion of Greece to want Grexit, but when push came to shove he's been begging, and bartering away everything if they can stay.

I realize how much more complex the realities are on the people of Greece, but good faith is mandatory in this type of negotiation. If Tsipras has been saying one thing out of the left side of his mouth to his supporters, and something else out of the right side of his mouth to those he's in negotiations with, it's becomes difficult to believe either side is being honest.

Now he's negotiating sell Greek assets.

[goldent]

11. This was no surprise

Tsipras more-or-less agreed to EU demands BEFORE THE REFERENDUM. At the time EU told him that negotiations had ended, but he had already put his cards on the table. Why did no-one seem to notice this?