Yes the Iran deal really comes down to War or Peace

[Tom Rinaldo]

It really is that simple in a world where most things rarely are that simple. There is nothing short of a full scale invasion and occupation of Iran from that can stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons if that nation is dead set on acquiring them. Not even successful air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities can stop them from getting the bomb The latter could only delay that by at most a few years. Experts actually agree on that. In a nation as technologically advanced as Iran is that already has the knowledge needed to go nuclear, all that would be needed to rebuild their atomic weapons program in facilities deep enough to be invulnerable to attack would be the will to do so. And if either Israel or the U.S. launched air strikes against Iran's current facilities, sufficient will to do so would be assured.

The current Iranian nuclear freeze that this agreement will replace was extremely unstable. It rested on a foundation of wide international support for punishing sanctions that forced Iran to the bargaining table. By itself the United States quite simply lacked the economic leverage needed to force Iran there by ourselves. Iran has been living under U.S. sanctions for decades - Even continued support from our traditional European allies wouldn't be enough to checkmate Iran if Russian and/or China broke ranks. And it's not exactly like China, to say nothing of Putin's Russia, feels under any deep obligation to do United States foreign policy any favors.

If, in the eyes of the world outside of the American and Israeli Right media echo chamber, Iran agrees to a reasonable deal and the U.S. then backs out of it, international sanctions against Iran will soon be nothing but a historic footnote. Great Britain, France and Germany are fully on board with this deal. They need Iranian oil more than we do. Airbus wants to sell airliners to Iran. Our traditional allies won't sit back and let Russia and China eat their economic lunch in regards to Iran. Once the economic damn of sanctions against Iran begins to leak, its full structural failure is inevitable. So long as Iran seems willing to faithfully honor the terms of this international agreement - the era of sanctions diplomacy against Iran is over no matter what Republican presidential candidates might say to the contrary.

Frankly whether any other potential U.S. leader other than President Obama could have negotiated a better deal with Iran (and I seriously doubt that), be that Jeb Bush, Scott Walker or Donald Trump, is now totally moot. Sorry guys but you just weren't in office when the rubber finally met the road. The American people elected Barack Obama President, twice, not John McCain or Mitt Romney. And while a case can also be made that right wing, and Israeli, bluster against the historic accord with Iran had a perversely positive role to play in convincing Iran to agree to tougher American pushed terms rather than see the final agreement go down in flames in the U.S. Congress, further bluster no longer has any potentially constructive role to play. There no longer are any negotiations to influence, the deal has now been inked.

True, opposition to this deal with Iran does not equate directly with pushing for war with Iran. Rather it is one tiny and inevitable step removed from directly advocating war with Iran, a distinction that is an embarrassingly tiny fig leaf to attempt to hide behind. Without this historic arm limitation accord Iran will be free to resume work on any nuclear program of its own choosing, without external inspections, while mot of the economic sanctions against it splinter and fall away. What then? If it is unacceptable to live with the consequences of Iran being bound only to the terms of this agreement, will it become more acceptable to live with Iran being bound to no conditions whatsoever? Clearly not, and with the diplomatic initiative having now run it's full course, the "military option" will be the only one left to resort to.

Anyone who sincerely believes that "surgical air strikes", whether by Israel or the United States, can remove any Iranian nuclear threat without embroiling America in a bloody protracted conflict spilling way beyond Iranian borders, while simultaneously unleashing new waves of terrorist actions against us, is delusional. Benjamin Netanyahu for one is not in the slightest bit delusional. He seems convinced that Iran, sooner or later, will need to be confronted militarily, and given that he prefers sooner over later. He understands the full implications of what torpedoing this accord with Iran would mean, and he accepts a need for military conflict. Perhaps he hold outs slim hope that a strong show of military force against Iran would cause that regime to crumple or alternately back down. If he does than Netanyahu also is delusional.

Iran is not Syria, it is many times more populous and advanced, it has a long proud history as a nation that goes back millennia, not decades. Unlike the Syrian nuclear facilities that Israel once bombed, there is nothing hush hush domestically about their existence. They have been in the full international glare of ten thousand spotlights for years now. If Iran gets bombed because of that program AFTER making the concessions that America's closest European allies believe should be sufficient, all hell will break loose.

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. I am waiting to see how Senator Corker reacts. And Rand Paul also

It was one thing for Republicans to talk tough before a deal was signed, they could still claim to be attempting to influence the negotiations. Corker has avoided over the top denunciations until now. It would be helpful if a handful of Republicans backed this deal in the Senate - that would I think make it veto proof.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. OK their reactins are in - not good. Why am I not surprised

Last edited Wed Jul 15, 2015, 08:29 AM - Edit history (1)

Paul opposes, Corker "sounded thoughtful" on Hardball, but only said negative things about the agreement.

[JonLP24]

3. This isn't about nuclear threats or any of that

It is all about and always about US control of globalization. Militarily or otherwise. It is ironic though you say use American and Israeli echo chambers because I've been translating Saudi cables and they pay very close attention to what the Iran newspapers and media are saying. I don't know if the ones that make claims that I don't know to be true are true but they certainly report on stories that I do know to be true and are true.

When it comes to Syria (What Saudi Arabia classified cable claimed)
Dangerous for the kingdom, which must be subjected to seek all available means and means to overthrow the stroke bones present in Syria. And for the international position it is clear that there is a lack Orgbh "and not Edm" Kdrh'a by Western countries, led by the United States in Atkhan decisive and concrete steps to overthrow the current regime in Syria may be linked, at least for the United States by two factors:
- The first is the lack of desire in a negative impact on the upcoming presidential elections in the United States in the event of a military option against Syria failure
- The second is to give priority to dealing with the Iranian issue and the subject of Syria postponed to a later stage
I would also like to refer to the Holy consider that coordination with Turkey is extremely important and in spite of the existence of its own agenda for Syria and the region, but it may be appropriate to take advantage of its position to increase the pressure on them. And Levy intensify our contacts Syrian opposition and urged them to unite and coordinate their positions in the hope of speed cracked system of the main pillars of the policy of the kingdom at this time, and finally, many of the countries in the critical moments resort to and supported the unconventional when their national security threat or to avoid threats uncertain and in the event of continuing the current Syrian regime in power so it may be possible to think of resorting to Badanl unprecedented in the event of the survival of the current situation for what it is I hope prefer consider decent access and guidance. May God prolong your age and your power Adam.
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https://wikileaks.org/saudi-cables/doc34889.html

Iran nationalizes oil production and trust me it isn't a "need" but rather a "greed". The low prices also helps out the US economy as well as a top importer.

On edit -- Russia though has already broke ranks, they've been trying to cozy up to Saudi Arabia.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. I wasn't tracking the Wiki leaks

Of course you are right to point out that there are multiple dimensions to what is playing out. Unfortunately I am haing trouble understanding the translations.

[JonLP24]

5. This translation simply was the US delayed the Syria regime change

either due to political difficulties if stuck in the war or to deal with the Iran situation first.

The media & newspapers translate clear though I have no idea if they're true except that Saudi Arabia noticed it enough to put it on their cables which I haven't posted. That was government communications there.

The economy is the #1 reason as Iran privatizes oil production & a variety of other industries as a mixed economy. Nuclear energy was their way to combat the sanctions

Economy of Iran

The economy of Iran is a mixed and transition economy with a large public sector. Some 60% of the economy is centrally planned.[14][15] It is dominated by oil and gas production, although over 40 industries are directly involved in the Tehran Stock Exchange, one of the best performing exchanges in the world over the past decade.[16][17] With 10% of the world's proven oil reserves and 15% of its gas reserves, Iran is considered an "energy superpower".[18][19][20][21]

It is the world's eighteenth largest by purchasing power parity (PPP)[22] and thirty-second by nominal gross domestic product.[23] The country is a member of Next Eleven because of its high development potential.[17][24][25] A unique feature of Iran's economy is the presence of large religious foundations called Bonyad, whose combined budgets represent more than 30% of central government spending.[26]

<snip>

Most of the country's exports are oil and gas, accounting for a majority of government revenue in 2010.[32] Oil export revenues enabled Iran to amass well over $100 billion in foreign exchange reserves as of 2010.[33][34] Iran ranked first in scientific growth in the world in 2011 and has one of the fastest development in telecommunication globally.[35][36]

Due to its relative isolation from global financial markets, Iran was initially able to avoid recession in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis.[37] Yet, following increasingly stringent sanctions imposed by the international community as a result of the country's nuclear program,[38][39] oil exports fell by half, allowing Iraqi oil exports to overtake Iran's for the first time since the 1980s.[40] In September 2012, the Iranian rial fell to a record low of 23,900 to the US dollar.[41]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Iran

The nuclear stuff was for them to help power their country with a diversified energy independent uses.

Electricity generation by fuel in Iran - 2012[29]
natural gas (69%)
oil (25%)
hydropower (6%)
non-hydro renewables (e.g. wind, geothermal or solar) (<1%)
coal (<1%)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Iran#Overview

Nuclear energy

Iran plans to generate 23,000 MWh of electricity through nuclear technology by 2025 to meet its increasing demand for energy.[49] The first of four 915 MW reactors of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, built with help from Russia, came online in August 2010[50] after numerous delays and Iran's indigenously designed Darkhovin Nuclear Power Plant is scheduled to come online in 2016. Overall, Iran remains a net exporter of electricity and exchanges electrical power with all its land neighbors.[51] While nuclear power in the US costs a little over 10 cents per kilowatt hour, Iran, with domestic uranium enrichment capabilities, high interest rates, low energy output (a single 1,000-watt reactor), low efficiency, extremely slow reactor construction, and no reprocessing pays around 68 cents per kilowatt hour (this assumes a price of $140 per separative working unit and of $40 per kilogram of uranium).[52]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Iran#Overview

Their desire for it is legitimate considering the circumstances so the effort has been for the US to cripple that in order to get them to feel the crippling effects of sanctions.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Thank you for all of this information

Iran is a very significant nation. Recent western efforts to suppress iIran's ability to realize it's full economic and geo-political power are ultimately as doomed to failure as were Europe's efforts in a bygone era to suppress China. Like the Soviet Union and China before, the U.S. can must find a way to engage with it at least semi-constructively.

[JonLP24]

7. I think the constructive thing would be to leave them alone

The sanctions that were agreed upon severely restrict their ability to develop nuclear energy with no idea how the sanctions will be lifted that can "snap back" if the US says they haven't agreed to the terms (smells like a way to set them up) but opening the door to Western privatizers could be very bad for their middle class depending. I'm on a wait and see with this one.

I'm not familiar with China but for USSR the results weren't good.

Until 1987 the forty-eight FTOs subordinate to the Ministry of Foreign Trade administered more than 90 percent of Soviet foreign trade turnover. In 1987 the ministry lost control of 20 percent of Soviet foreign trade turnover. The government granted direct foreign trade rights to twenty-one ministries and state committees, sixty-seven industrial enterprises, and eight interbranch scientific production complexes. Exporting enterprises gained the right to retain part of their hard-currency earnings. Each ministry or enterprise was to pay for its investment imports with its own hard currency, and the heads of ministries and enterprises became personally responsible for the efficient use of hard-currency funds. These measures gave enterprises more influence in import decision making.[1]

On January 13, 1987, the Council of Ministers adopted the resolution ""On Questions Concerning the Creation, on U.S.S.R. Territory, and the Activities of Joint Enterprises, International Associations, and Organizations with the Participation of Soviet and Foreign Organizations, Firms, and Management Bodies,"" or, more simply, a law on joint ventures. This legislation opened up enterprises inside the Soviet Union for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution (see Glossary), to foreign participation. Joint ventures were to facilitate the acquisition and assimilation of Western technology, managerial know-how, and marketing abilities. Optimistic about the economic effects of their new undertaking, Soviet officials declared that 85 to 90 percent of ""the most important types of machinery"" would meet world technical standards by 1990. The Soviet Union's vast natural resources and its lucrative, previously closed, domestic market attracted Western companies. By August 1988, more than 50 joint ventures were registered in the Soviet Union, and approximately 300 were under negotiation.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_trade_of_the_Soviet_Union#Structural_Reforms.2C_1986_to_Mid-1988

Russia is the 2nd most corrupt country in Europe

n June 1991, Boris Yeltsin became the first directly elected President in Russian history when he was elected President of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, which became the independent Russian Federation in December of that year. During and after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, wide-ranging reforms including privatization and market and trade liberalization were undertaken,[84] including radical changes along the lines of "shock therapy" as recommended by the United States and the International Monetary Fund.[85] All this resulted in a major economic crisis, characterized by a 50% decline in both GDP and industrial output between 1990–95.[84][86]

The privatization largely shifted control of enterprises from state agencies to individuals with inside connections in the government. Many of the newly rich moved billions in cash and assets outside of the country in an enormous capital flight.[87] The depression of the economy led to the collapse of social services; the birth rate plummeted while the death rate skyrocketed.[88] Millions plunged into poverty, from a level of 1.5% in the late Soviet era to 39–49% by mid-1993.[89] The 1990s saw extreme corruption and lawlessness, the rise of criminal gangs and violent crime.[90]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia#Russian_Federation

The problem, a huge problem, is our media which the CIA has a lot of control through the help of psychological warfare with the #1 part is the media to give a perception that is largely false. This is just one example of what Iran news reported though have no idea if it is true but I certainly believe it is very possible.

IRNA / Clinton China bribe Saudi oil to abandon Iran's support / 14/02/2010
Clinton's tour of the Gulf aimed at strengthening the position of her country to impose strict sanctions on Tehran directed Arabia in the framework of the efforts exerted by the United States to strengthen sanctions against Iran, during meetings with Arab and Muslim leaders. Clinton also will continue President Barack Obama administration's efforts to promote a settlement between the Arabs and the Zionist entity and work to turn the page in relations with the Islamic countries, in a speech in front of Stlekaya US-Islamic World Forum in Doha. Hillary Clinton will depart the United States to delay for one day the date on which it was prescribed by her husband after submission, former President Bill Clinton Thursday to heart surgery. Officials at the State that this delay will not affect any of its meetings. You can order it from Clinton Saudis who Stltekayam Monday and Tuesday after a speech at the US-Islamic World Forum, to submit to China to increase oil supplies to try to win the support of Beijing to impose sanctions on Iran. China imports the bulk of its oil from Iran. A senior official in the US State Department said in response to a question in this regard is not ruled out that this issue may be part of the talks. China seems the only country among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, which does not want to impose sanctions on Iran countries. The other four countries are the United States, Russia, France and Britain. Moscow has adopted a tougher stance towards Iran Majara.okhlal stop in Riyadh, Clinton will meet with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz and Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal. Saudis and other officials will meet in Jeddah on the Red Sea. (U)

https://wikileaks.org/saudi-cables/doc120980.html

The above is an Iran news report.