Stats wiz Nate Silver: For black Americans, US is about as dangerous as Rwanda

[sheshe2]

For black and white americans, the difference between life and death is literally worlds apart. Although we may know this on some level, Nate Silver, the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, has the startling statistics that demonstrate this reality.

As he explained to me on the latest episode of The Katie Halper Show, “If you’re a white person your chance of being murdered every year is 2.5 out of 10,000… If you’re a black person it’s 19.4, so almost eight times higher.”

To put this into context, Silver explained, the murder rate for white Americans is similar to the murder rate for people living in Finland, Chile or Israel. The murder rate for black Americans, on the other hand, is similar to the rate found “in developing countries that are war zones even, like Myanmar, or Rwanda, Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria, places that have vast disorder. To me that stat was so striking that I thought this was a case where even if you kinda zoomed out, that was a data point that helped to inform the discussion.”

snip

Listen to the whole interview with Silver below, as well as interviews with Chris Cobb, who helped get New York City to acknowledge the site of a former slave market on Wall Street and mark it with a plaque, Desiree Burch, the black solo performer from California, who now lives in England, where she feels way safer walking around and or encountering the sees police, and political comedian Ted Alexandro, who talks about police brutality in his standup, and said, to Silver, “you said [the murder rate for black Americans is] more in keeping with places that have ‘vast disorder.’ Maybe vast disorder is the right term for the experience of black folks living here in the United States. That is their reality. So, when you said those words it kind of struck me.”

Read More: http://www.rawstory.com/2015/07/stats-guru-nate-silver-for-black-americans-us-is-about-as-dangerous-as-rwanda/

*********************

Some seem to believe racism is over. No, not by a long shot (pun intended).

[Igel]

1. Let's talk about the Gardena video.

It's at best marginally relevant to this story--police killings are a small portion of the total--but will act as a great distractor. Otherwise the thread will deal with something that people find offensive.

[madville]

2. The vast majority of murders are intraracial

Around 90% of black murders are at the hands of other black people. For whites it is around 85% white-on-white homicide.

What are the causes for blacks to be at a higher risk of being murdered in the U.S.? I would put the war on drugs at the top of the list and the vast poverty in the black community is a big factor as well.

I would also argue systematic racism is in the mix as well, due to the higher arrest rates from the larger police presence in black areas and longer sentences blacks receive in the current justice system.

[gollygee]

4. It doesn't mean that racist white people killing black people is causing this level of danger

It means that the racist systems, structures, and institutions created because of our history of slavery and racism built up over generations has caused us to have a country where it is that dangerous. Criminal justice, education, housing, banking, everything.

[madville]

7. Exactly

Couldn't have said it better. The question is what to specifically target right now in the present and the future to change the rate of violence black people commit against each other. The "war on drugs" and poverty would be good starting points.

[gollygee]

11. I disagree that the answer is to focus on "black-on-black crime"

I think the answer to the problem is to dismantle racism in all the structures and systems in the US.

[Adrahil]

13. It's not one or the other...

You must treat symptoms AND cause. Yes, racism is the root cause, but it's also true that there are deep socio-economic-cultural wounds in the black community that lead to very high murder rates.

[gollygee]

14. Focusing on "black-on-black crime" is really just a way to approch the problem

at no cost to white people. And "black-on-black crime" is really just crime, some of which is no different from white-on-white crime and therefore needs no special attention other than just general crime prevention, and some of which is the result of the racist systems and institutions in our country, and it won't go away without dealing with those. For instance, the racist education and criminal justice and employement systems make it harder for African Americans to get good paying jobs, so they are more likely to turn to other ways to get money. If those racist institutions were dealt with, they would have the same opportunities as white people.

Here's an example of how, when kids have a greater sense of opportunity, crime decreases. The Kalamazoo Promise gives all kids who graduate from the Kalamazoo Public Schools free tuition to any state college and a number of Michigan private colleges, including local ones so kids won't need room and board. And soon after the program started, crime rates started dropping. I don't think that's a coincidence. http://urbanmilwaukee.com/2015/04/05/op-ed-the-fallacy-of-black-on-black-crime/

And here's some information about the problem with focusing on "black-on-black crime" http://urbanmilwaukee.com/2015/04/05/op-ed-the-fallacy-of-black-on-black-crime/

[Adrahil]

17. I really don't care what you call it...

I agree that the fact that is "black on black" is a matter of proximity.... But that's not my point.

You said we need to focus on racism. And while I agree that is a root cause, we cannot ignore the culture of violence that exists in these communities, black, latino, mixed, or otherwise.

[For Freddie]

29. Culture of Violence?

POVERTY IS VIOLENCE...
Obviously you have never lived in an all white mobile home community inhabited by tweekers,bikers and neo nazis.The most violent lethal entity on the planet is a white tweeker neo nazi biker.

Culture of Violence follows POVERTY. This is intentional.

Poverty in the US follows Racism.Racism is well funded and fueled.

It is not Rocket Surgery.

Drugs follow Poverty, violence follows drugs, lack of education, positive interventions. Follow the money in this agenda through the decades. Who profits from this the most? Who creates this
"culture of violence" to keep the "lower classes" in check?And in constant warfare?

The " lack of will" to improve this is based in Greed and Self Interest. Criminal intent. A great distraction.

Racism is a political tool to keep the status quo of the past in place by those who have the greatest self interest in doing so.
Constant conflict is a great tool of unchecked capitalism.And who are the "leaders" and creators of this? White Males.

Great amounts of money have been spent to create this "culture of violence" from poverty. THIS IS RACISM.
"The culture of violence" is not exclusive to Blacks, Latinos, Native Americans. It is an AGENDA kept in place and well funded.
This stuff doesn't "just happen". It is fueled. Follow the money.
More money is spent keeping this going than has ever been utilized to destroy it. POVERTY IS VIOLENCE.

[Adrahil]

30. Exactly so.

A culture of desperqtion, poverty, broken promises, and little hope. We need to fix that.

[heaven05]

36. +1000

[pocoloco]

50. Excellant post For Freddie!

Concise and to the point!

Poverty is also an effective tool of control!

As Eric Hoffer explained,when the main concern is survival,
little thought is given to voting and politics.

[heaven05]

21. BS

distractive diminishing and typical of what is really starting to show up here. No addressing racism, just "those blacks are killing each other". So the whites killing blacks, don't really matter, right?

[Adrahil]

23. You completely distorted my position. Shame!

I did, in fact, address racism. Racism is the root cause. But the fact is people are killing each other NOW, and we must find ways of addressing that immediately. Jobs programs, educational benefits, and inner city infrastructure are just a few ways to do that. At the same time, we must work to dismantle the systemic racism that leads to the conditions balck communities, and especially inner-city black communities, are experiencing.

And i've been directly critical here of approaches from the left that attempt to address such problems strictly from a class point of view.

[heaven05]

35. sounds better

my mistake.

[XemaSab]

51. How do you explain the crime rate in other countries?

Are the problems in Mexico and Myanmar a direct product of racism, or are there other factors at work?

Why wouldn't there be other factors at work here?

[Snow Leopard]

38. why do you suppose there is such a disparity

versus other minorities though? They experienced racism, poverty, slavery too. Thinking mainly Asians here.

[gollygee]

47. The Model Minority myth

http://everydayfeminism.com/2015/04/dismantle-model-minority-myth/

[7962]

40. Then why werent black people killing each other a lot MORE during the Crow years?

When almost every black person was poor back in the 30s-50s, they werent killing each other like they do today. And at that time they couldnt really do anything that wasnt restricted by anti-black laws.
It just seems like crime should have been through the roof in those days.

[gollygee]

45. I don't think there's less racism now than there was then

Last edited Fri Jul 17, 2015, 09:04 AM - Edit history (1)

There's still mass segregation, even without laws, and I think the criminal justice system is more racist since Reagan rather than better.

It seems like there have been improvements in some areas but at the same time things have gotten worse elsewhere. The criminal justice system is so horribly racist now that I think it's made the overall level of racism the same or worse. Hmm or maybe overall somewhat better but still horribly worse in the area of criminal justice.

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/10/inner-city-violence-in-the-age-of-mass-incarceration/382154/

(I'm talking about institutional and systemic racism, not how nice people are or how likely they are to, say, elect a black president.)

[yardwork]

52. Economic disparities are far worse now.

In the last 50 years the gap between rich and everybody else has widened to a point that is truly mind boggling.

The impact on the most vulnerable is worst.

[oberliner]

3. 82 percent of black homicide victims were shot and killed with guns

Also, the state with the highest black homicide victimization rate is Nebraska.

[AngryAmish]

5. Ferguson.

[Cha]

6. Thank you for your OP, she.. No way is racism over because non racists elected a Black President.

[freshwest]

8. Awesome analysis by Nate Silver. Thanks for bringing it, Sheshe. n/t

[sheshe2]

10. You are welcome, freshwest.

[ismnotwasm]

9. Wow--heartbreaking

And that's just the beginning

[William769]

12. Kick & highly recommended!

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. That should read 'per 100,000'. The relative comparisons are all correct

but murder stats are normally given per 100,000, and the overall American rate is about 4.7 per 100,000: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

About 20 per 10,000 would be 1 in 500 chance of being murdered every year. Which would mean a chance of being murdered in a lifetime of more likely than 1 in 10 . Things are bad for African Americans, but not that bad.

[gollygee]

16. Nate Silver wrote it correctly in his article they referenced

So it must have been a typo on the part of the person who write the Raw Story article.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/black-americans-are-killed-at-12-times-the-rate-of-people-in-other-developed-countries/

[heaven05]

20. really? nt

[muriel_volestrangler]

22. Yes, really ...

[gollygee]

33. A 1 in 100 chance of being murdered is still really horrible. n/t

[heaven05]

34. for you

[randys1]

27. Sit down, know your place. Remember?

So you might not get murdered while you are on your way to the bank to be turned down for a business loan or on the way to the apartment building to be turned down, etc

[Quayblue]

31. or this

Which I have reading through intermittently while working...

http://www.eeoc.gov/eeoc/initiatives/e-race/caselist.cfm

[rladdi]

18. This is the direct results of the NRA and GOP arming America.

The GOP says gives the states full control. Wow, the states have armed themselves. Its time we take power from the states.

[heaven05]

19. keep the truth

coming. Maybe, just maybe, not while holding my breath, change will happen one day for the better.

[LittleBlue]

24. This is an issue that only the black community can solve

When whites try to solve this, it's often by either unconstitutional measures (stop and frisk) or leads to police brutality.

And please don't tell me that society is making these young men shoot each other. Black women aren't killing each other. Last year there were only 800 black women who were victims of homicide in the US, versus 5,300 black men.

[7962]

41. Its already been said. nt

[Cal Carpenter]

53. Stop and frisk is not meant to *solve* anything

It is meant to dehumanize a giant group of people and keep the incarceration rates high.

If 'whites' wanted to 'solve' this, they would fight, in solidarity with all people of color, for a total reworking of our economic and political systems.

[951-Riverside]

25. That's pretty brave of a white man to openly say

Its also pretty brave of you to post it on DU.

[randys1]

28. Dont worry, the MSM will ignore it and instead of it being used to rectify, it will be twisted

and used to accuse YOU of killing your own kind. Not sure what own kind means, but a whole lotta white folk do

[mainer]

26. this is utterly horrifying. I had no idea.

Once you stack up the statistics against Mexico and Rwanda, it really is a punch in the face.

[JustAnotherGen]

32. It's really worth going to the link and reading the whole article

I wonder what are chances are when we add in poor health care/physician perspective/prevention?


Stroke, heart attacks, infant mortality rates, forced c- sections leading to complications, ovarian cancer screenings, etc. etc.

I bet things really get dismal then. Like - dark. And that doesn't have a black on black element to it at all.

[SunSeeker]

42. Exactly right. And those types of deaths tend to be slow and painful.

I know breast cancer mortality rates are higher for black women because they tend to get diagnosed later (due to inadequate screenings/poor healthcare).

[lewebley3]

37. Probably and understatement!

[SunSeeker]

43. K & R

[artislife]

44. True nt

[oberliner]

46. But it doesn't come close to Honduras or Venezuela

The countries with the highest murder rates in the world.

The rate in Venezuela is more than triple the rate indicated here for black Americans.

Honduras - more than quadruple.

[D Gary Grady]

48. Important starting point for more detailed analysis

It would be interesting to see addition breakdown and comparisons based on poverty, inner-city versus other environments, etc.

There's an obvious danger here that Limbaugh types will take this as proof that violence can be blamed on "black-on-black" crime and hence on "the blacks," ignoring the root causes of poverty and racism and the fact that crime rates are higher in crowded, poor communities in general. That's why I'd like to see breakdowns of the statistics by more than just race. Even Benjamin Franklin noted the link between poverty and crime, citing what he said was an old saying (in the 1700s!) that "It's hard for an empty sack to stand up straight."

Here's another surprisingly little-known statistic I ran across a few years ago: Between 1990 and 2008 -- a relatively good period economically -- life expectancy fell by 3 years for men and 5 years for women for white Americans without a high school diploma. This was not matched by a corresponding drop for black Americans, and in fact by 2008 life expectancy for Americans without a high school diploma was lower for white women than for black women. At the time the cause was a mystery and I'm not sure how much more is known today. Here are two articles about it:

http://prospect.org/article/whats-killing-poor-white-women
http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/31/8/1803

Low education is tied to poverty as cause as well as result, which makes me suspect that this is another instance in which poverty rather than race is the immediate cause (which is not to say that poverty in the black and Hispanic communities is independent of racism).

[Man from Pickens]

49. Spoiler alert

The elevated murder rate is occurring almost entirely in forgotten inner city ghettos.

It is not caused by racism - there's racism elsewhere without the elevated murder rate. We can also rule out guns as the cause for the same reason.

[D Gary Grady]

54. It's a bit more complicated than that

No, racism probably isn't the main proximate cause of inner city violence. Black people don't shoot other black people because they're racists. But look a little deeper, and it's abundantly clear that racism was a major underlying cause of the concentration of poverty in inner city communities, and racism continues to make it hard for people to get out of poverty. (For just one example, credible academic studies have found that white applicants with a criminal record often have an easier time job hunting than black applicants without a record.)

No, easy access to guns can't explain why two areas with similar levels of access have drastically different homicide rates. But it is does help explain why U.S. ghettos have so higher homicide rates than comparable areas in Europe.

[peacebird]

58. Yes, and add to that the helplessness of poverty - lack of jobs, or jobs that don't pay livable wage

Hunger. The hopeless feeling that everything is stacked against you. This toxic atmosphere is ripe for violence.

[alfredo]

55. Kick and recommend

[ananda]

56. That's some perspective, eh?

Rather sobering, I think.

[peacebird]

57. So disheartening. Between this and the KKKonfederate flag rallies.... We have so much work to do

Thank you for posting this OP.