NBC News: GOP 2016 Win Will Need More Than 40 Percent Of Latino Vote, Says Study

[Algernon Moncrieff]

Full story at LINK

The Republican nominee selected to run for president in 2016 will need to get a higher share of Latino votes than in the past - as high as almost half in some key battleground states, according to a new analysis by Latino Decisions.

That's a high mountain to climb for the Republican Party considering it's twice the percentage that Mitt Romney received when he ran as the Republican presidential candidate in 2012. Back then, Romney received just 23 percent of the Latino vote.

Even if the Republican Party wins 60 percent of the white vote—which hasn't done in a presidential election since 1988—the Republican presidential nominee would need to get 42 percent and in another scenario as high as 47 percent of Latino votes in order to win the popular vote, the study finds. In 2012, Romney got 59 percent of the white vote.

The analysis was conducted for America's Voice, a group that advocates for immigration reform.

[Iliyah]

1. Oops

[yeoman6987]

2. We need them to lose the electoral

[Cali_Democrat]

33. Ahem....

You do realize the electoral college favors Dems, right?

The GOP needs to win almost every swing state to barely eek out a victory.

It isn't possible

They will be destroyed in the electoral college again like they were in 2008 and 2012.

[yeoman6987]

35. I know that so why is everyone talking popular vote?

[Person 2713]

3. Adios GOP

[Xipe Totec]

4. So, they only need to suppress 80% of the Hispanic vote to get 40% of the remainder nt

[Hekate]

34. You put your finger on the real threat, XT. How's our battle against voter suppression coming along?

That part always worries the hell out of me.

[spanone]

5. go trump!!!!!!!

[Cha]

18. You win, spanone!

[Gothmog]

6. Right now, the GOP will be lucky to match Romney's 27%

[foxface666]

8. bush

George bush has won 44% of Latino vote.

[Wilms]

9. Eleven years ago. Looks like things aren't trending well for the GOP.

From two years ago:

The Republican problem with Hispanic voters — in 7 charts

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/03/18/the-republican-problem-with-hispanic-voters-in-7-charts/

[herding cats]

12. That was before the GOP decided to wage war against the Latino population.

Suppressing votes, DREAM act opposition, building a wall to keep "those people" out, the GOP's brand of immigration reform, etc. Those mistake are going to cost them for years to come.

Every month for the next 20 years 50,000 Latino voters will become eligible to vote. That's a lot of potential voters to be pissing off to placate a few racist. If they'd been smart they'd have been trying to educate their base decades ago, not pandering to their blind hate and feeding it.

Welcome to DU!

[artislife]

25. ^^^this.

This last decade has hurt my soul. I know what I or my family have faced is still nowhere near the racism the AA community faces, but it has gotten coarser and less apologetic. These are not mere whispers anymore.

I think whoever is our nominee, they will get a huge number of votes from the Latino population.

[Major Nikon]

13. Dim-son's handlers managed to convince some he could speak Spanish

The reality was he could memorize a sound bite at best.

Jeb might do better in that regard.

[herding cats]

15. He actually used George P Bush (Jeb's son) as his bilingual outreach.

Also, he made false claims like this one:

The speech to La Raza expanded on a previous Bush proposal to split the INS into two separate agencies — one to patrol the border and prevent illegal immigration and the other to deal with legal migration.

“Every INS immigration application should be fully processed within six months of submission. No immigrant should have to wait more than six months for the INS to make a decision on his or her application,” Bush said.

“Legal immigrants are the future and the changing face of America and we should welcome them and treat them with respect,” he said.

“Family values don’t stop at the Rio Grande. But sometimes the INS sends a different message. My administration will reform the INS and make it worthy of a nation of immigrants,” Bush said.

[Gothmog]

16. That was a different time with Karl Rove pandering to latino voters

Right now the GOP is being very hostile Hispanic voters and that hostility has consequences

[Cha]

19. That was then.. bush2 had too many people fooled.

[Arugula Latte]

31. Yeah, keep those fingers crossed for a repeat of that --

Good luck! You're gonna need it!

[Lancero]

7. Think Trump got this memo?

[Sam_Fields]

11. It is too late for Trump

He demonized the sons of millions of descendants with prior Mexican citizenship. Other Latinos know illegal immigrant is code for people that are not white.

[davidpdx]

10. Sounds about right

I don't see how they can break 30% yet alone 40%. There are quite a few important states where Latinos are an important demographic in terms of winning that state. A candidate that can't get their vote isn't going to win. Plain and simple.


Other than Dubya, I don't know of any other Republican presidential candidate that has won a high percentage of the Latino vote.

[Calista241]

17. Both Jeb Bush and Rubio are fluent in Spanish.

If either of them are the nominee, they're both going to be doing Spanish language interviews like it's going out of style. Hillary and Bernie do not speak Spanish, so they'll either have an interpreter or have a stand in to do any interviews.

Yes, Trump is being a dick, but either of those two candidates could very well be able to flip turnout of Latino voters.

[artislife]

26. Rubio is Cuban

Cubans have been treated differently in this country than other Latinos. And his family were not the poor looking for a better life, like most, not all, Latinos.


What I am saying is that Rubio doesn't have quite the advantage in the Latino community as one might think.

[davidpdx]

29. Rubio has no chance at all

Bush would be the bigger threat. I would hope the Latino community is aware of his extreme views. W. was not a friend of the Latino community even though he won a large portion of the vote.

[lovemydog]

14. Sí, se puede

[Cha]

20. Si se puede!

I have a postcard that says that on my wall, with the Obama logo, from 2008.

[lovemydog]

21. Cool!

It's about all of us. Yes we can! I've grown the past few years. I'm more likely to find patience and compassion without surrendering my ideals or integrity. I'm grateful for that Cha. Grateful for my friends and family. Grateful for you and others online who have taught me a lot about that and shared a lot of laughs too.

[Cha]

24. That's so kind and thoughtful, lovemydog. And, such

an awesome reminder to really appreciate all the love in our lives and keep on nourishing..

[Initech]

22. And Donald Trump alienated 39.9999995% of that vote.

Hey I live in Los Angeles, most of my Latino friends wouldn't vote conservative even if it was the only choice on the ballot. And they hate Donald Trump.

[hifiguy]

23. Lotsa luck, chumps.

Xenophobia and racism are prerequisites to getting the nomination.

[Thinkingabout]

27. The GOP Dixiecrats hate latinos, African Americans and "muslims", they dont know

The angry old white men are becoming a minority. I rather doubt this is something they can accept. That's alright, the DNC likes hardworking people.

[Liberal_in_LA]

28. or 100% of the black vote

[Arugula Latte]

30. Yeah, good luck with that, you racist dumbshits.

[Cali_Democrat]

32. Good luck, guys