Would Donald Trump really be that easy to beat?

[ericson00]

We all know the standard "Trump's favorability is low" or that Trump loses badly (read present tense, not future tense) in head-to-head polls.

However, this guy is clearly the best political genius since Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan. Trump was supposed to be dead before he announced. Here's a list of Trump's deaths.
0. Demanding Obama's birth certificate
1. Insulting undocumented workers who simply do jobs Americans won't.
2. Demeaning John McCain's war record
3. Saying "Obama will stop blacks from ever being president again."
4. Raising his hand at Baier's question.
5. The Luntz [rigged] "focus group."
6. The sexist quip at Megyn Kelly.
...

Yet he continues to rise in the polls, and now is beating Scott Walker in Iowa, still ahead in NH, and ahead in all national polls. He may even neutralize the Kochs entirely, as his presence in the debate helped other far right guys like Ben Carson and Ted Cruz overtake Jeb W. Bush and Scott Walker. This guy is politically savvy for sure. He also does not have Jeb's foot-in-mouth disease; everything Trump says he clearly means to say because he knows how there is a big disconnect between the media and the voters.

In a general election, would he really lose so badly, or at all? I'm starting to have doubts about Trump's non-viability. He did manage to turn his inherited fortune into a mega fortune, sell a ton of books, erect massive hotels and golf courses all around the world, and have a hit reality TV show. In other words, this guy can sell things very well! He lacks Bush's eponymous stigma, Walker's boringness, Cruz's ugliness, Carson's inexperience and extreme policy positions. Trump's rhetoric is much more extreme than his policy positions. He's also clearly trying to pivot to the center on Planned Parenthood, per him on Hannity's interview. (I watched the clips online; I won't be part of Fox ratings unless its a Trump Debate). It might be very effective in a GE to "not be bought" like him, yet he clearly looks willing to spend every dime of his fortune to be Prez. He could probably put Cruz on his ticket to rebutt the fact he's a racist, just enough to have a shot at swing voters.

Reagan was supposed to get destroyed by Carter. At the start of 1980, polls had that happening. While the fundamentals of 1980 heavily favored Reagan (Carter had the kind of election year approvals Bush I had in 1992; sub 40 on a consistent basis), clearly, being a joke at one time doesn't necessarily mean voters will think he's a joke when the lever/touch screen/butterfly ballot is in front of one.

Should we be careful what we wish for re. Donald Trump, GOP nominee? I think we'd be the joke of the world if he's nominated and elected. We don't need that again; we had it with Jeb's brother. But I don't want us to be the joke of election 2016. This is The Donald, not Dan Quayle.

[Agnosticsherbet]

1. We thought Bush 2 would be easy.

I mean, really, who would believe there could be a compassionate conservative.

A close election stolen was all it took.

[Cliff Arnebeck]

2. Two stolen elections!

"A close election stolen was all it took."

. . . and, a second election, stolen on a massive scale by the "Architect" Karl Rove.

[ericson00]

4. I'm sorry, 2004 was not stolen. No serious data suggests it.

and Bush got the most votes nationally that year anyway; Kerry's presidency would've been badly crippled if he had won the election but lost the popular vote. Also, lets keep all the popular vote loser but election winners as Republicans. I want our kids and grandkids to someday know that only one party in this country hates democracy

[Cliff Arnebeck]

20. Serious data on the theft of the 2004 election-popular and electoral college vote

2004 was done professionally -- both the crime and its cover-up and both the Electoral College vote and the popular vote. Its architect was Karl Rove, this time working covertly out of the White House.

Exit polls -- the international gold standard for detecting election fraud -- indicated shifting of votes from Kerry to Bush in both swing states necessary to "win" their electoral college votes and the blue state of California where it dramatically affected the reported national popular vote count but not California's electoral college vote. The U.S. Exit poll discrepancy as greater than in the 2004 Ukrainian election which the U.S. Government was calling fraudulent. See Steve Freeman's book and Robert Kennedy, Jr.'s Rolling Stone and Common Dreams article on the 2004 election. Kennedy was able to get Lou Harris to review the election. Harris described it as obviously stolen and the dirtiest election ever.

The electronic programming was coordinated out of SmarTech in Chattanooga, TN.

There is a long thread on this, starting with Rove's fixing the FBI criminal investigation of this by transferring his protege Stanley Borgia to take over as SAC for Cincinnati, Ohio at: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022560634
The "winning" margin in Ohio was achieved by switching the votes in the Ohio Republican counties surrounding Cincinnati: Butler, Clermont, and Warren. This is documented in Robert Kennedy's June 2006 article, Bob Fitrakis' book on What Happened in Ohio and Richard Hayes Phillips' book Witness to a Crime. Phillips' book includes a CD of digital photographs of actual Ohio ballots.

[KansDem]

27. Have we forgotten the Ohio recount?

And the Homeland Security warning that never was?

The reports were especially disturbing in Ohio, the critical battleground state that clinched Bush's victory in the electoral college. Officials there purged tens of thousands of eligible voters from the rolls, neglected to process registration cards generated by Democratic voter drives, shortchanged Democratic precincts when they allocated voting machines and illegally derailed a recount that could have given Kerry the presidency. A precinct in an evangelical church in Miami County recorded an impossibly high turnout of ninety-eight percent, while a polling place in inner-city Cleveland recorded an equally impossible turnout of only seven percent. In Warren County, GOP election officials even invented a nonexistent terrorist threat to bar the media from monitoring the official vote count.(11)

Common Dreams

Warren County GOP: "You can't come in here! Homeland Security warned us of a terrorist threat!"
Homeland Security: "No, we didn't."
*crickets*

Yeah, I remember...

[ericson00]

33. sorry, but if that were a reputable news source,

not the equivalent of wnd or newsmax, I'd look into it. But there's a reason no major Democrats touched the idea that 2004 was stolen. Also, Bush did win the most votes, so it would've been very hypocritical to have hit Bush for being the first president since 1888 to not win the most votes but use a tenuous Ohio argument to get Kerry into office.

[newfie11]

19. ++++++++++++++++++nt

[giftedgirl77]

3. Idiocracy is not just a movie....

It's a documentary.

[Populist_Prole]

5. On an issue basis, I think so. But....

The GOP base is so partisan they don't care about them and they'll vote for ANYbody that gets the nomination.

The intense tribalism is such that I just can't see any republican voters holding their noses and voting for a democratic candidate ( no matter how corporatist they actually may be ) just because Trump is too "out there".

Full disclosure: I am quite cynical.

[yeoman6987]

6. It doesn't help that we have the third term curse

We haven't had 3 terms with a democratic president in 70 years. Although we can minimize that if we pick a solid candidate which I think we will.

[ericson00]

11. Hillary Clinton will do the job very well

[Midnight Writer]

7. Latest Hillary (62%) vs Trump(38%) in head to head poll

Of course, it is still Very Early, and I will never underestimate a Republican candidate again. I laughed at the Reagan bid, and I scoffed at W Bush. Never again.

By the way, the only Republican candidate Clinton lost to in the poll (end of July) was JEB!

For more information, visit pollingreport.com. They have a lot of interesting polls, not only on the elections but on public opinions on scads of policy options.

[ericson00]

10. I think that poll with Hillary vs. Jeb was MoE

which isn't even really losing. But yea, Trump has a lot of potential if he does move center on some things, but keeps hard-right on the immigration issue.

[Egnever]

8. 30% of the republican party can't win anything.

[ericson00]

9. yea but if they all unite, which I think Trump might be able to do

at least with more voters than politicos, given that he's moving to the center (Planned Parenthood), he could be a very serious electoral danger.

[Adrahil]

22. I doubt it.

I troll a a large very conservative site. Trump has very ardent supporters. He also has serious haters. There is a laege segment that simply will not support him in the primaries. As the also rans drop out, I see support for the the more usual idiots solidifying.

[oberliner]

12. He is not going to get the nomination

It's a side show.

[ericson00]

16. A front running sideshow defying the Kochs, the media

and everyone else out there. Yes, a sideshow.

[oberliner]

17. Yes, just like Herman Cain

From Oct, 2011: Cain now leads GOP pack - NBC News

Cain’s numbers are sky-high among Republican primary voters. Fifty-two percent view him favorably, versus just 6 percent who see him unfavorably. Among Tea Party supporters, his favorable/unfavorable score is 69 percent to 5 percent. And among Republicans who identify themselves as “very conservative,” it’s 72 percent to 2 percent.

“Cain gives direct answers. He is succinct. He isn’t a politician..."

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44881446/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/nbcwsj-poll-cain-now-leads-gop-pack/#.Vc2m0YuprzI

Sound familiar?

[ericson00]

30. Trump has been frontrunner for much longer than Herman Cain

and Cain wasn't even consistently a frontrunner. Trump has a much bigger lead (far outside the MoE) than Cain ever had.

You're also forgetting another important thing about the GOP: Cain was also kind of a "we're not really racist" phenomenon, the sexual harrassment claims were just a convenient way to ditch him.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

13. You wrongly assume he's ever been taken seriously by the general public

Even before he got into birtherism, no one outside of the GOP base liked him. His negatives are through the roof.

The only reason he keeps going and staying in the news is because the wingnuts won't let him go, just as they did with Palin.

But he's always polled as a landslide loss in a general election, and always will.

Popularity with the FOX cultists doesn't translate to general appeal.

[ericson00]

14. in 1979 Reagan was a national punchline and was getting cremated in polls

1980 tho wasn't exactly a Jimmy Carter smash hit, or victory, or anywhere close.

[oberliner]

18. Reagan was the odds-on favorite for the Republican nomination from day one

He nearly beat an incumbent (Gerald Ford) in 1976 for the nomination.

[Adrahil]

23. Reagan wasa two term governor...

Of a large state. And Carter was the victim of a period of time he was ill suited for. He was hit with crisis after crisis beyond his control, and of a nature not in his wheelhouse. He also did some cool things, but in the end, he was sunk by the Iran hostage crisis.

[pnwmom]

15. No. He could have 2 or 3 billion to spend, and they've stolen elections before.

As long as he's the Rethug nominee he'll have a chance.

[Oneironaut]

21. Trump can win. Even Kim Kardashian would be able to win.

Being entertaining is enough to become President, no matter how much of a joke you are.

[DrDan]

24. i remember very well an outsponken DUer proclaim that there was "no way a Dem can lose to Rand Paul"

This is not the place to get objective predictions. Too many get all their news and views here and therefore are way too biased in their thinking.

[sendero]

25. I think...

.. only a fool would write off Trump. He may sound like a blithering douchebag to most of the people here, but to lots of Americans (and IMHO not just Republicans) he sounds like a real breath of fresh air.

He has a populist message that is going to resonate with a lot of people. The non-PC talk is a feature not a bug, lots of people are sick of being told what they can say. And he thumbs his nose routinely at the DC establishment, an establishment that the VAST MAJORITY of Americans hold in utter contempt.

Write him off at your peril.

[ericson00]

31. you said it precisely. His gift is that by not being a career pol, he can get away

with saying stuff no one else can, if these last 6 weeks have proven nothing else. He's also a brilliant tactitioner; those are not gaffes he's making! Its also intentionally done, planned in advance, if not verbatim, in summary and message. In a GE, he is not gonna be dumb enough to say detrimental things. Its gonna be more "I'm gonna take back jobs from China and the hispanics are gonna get them and they're gonna love Trump."

Another huge thing that Trump has going for him is his present and past stance on Iraq, someone thing among Republicans. Jeb's trying to explain his way out of it, and its flopping miserably. I'm starting to hope Jeb wins because of the Bush name, and how easy that might be as opposed to a guy who is a lot more politically gifted like Trump.

[MH1]

36. Yes, exactly what you said. If Bush v Gore and Kerry didn't teach us anything,

we're idiots.

[Vinca]

26. Reagan won.

Dubya won a second term despite the nightmare that was the first term. Trump can definitely win.

[JoePhilly]

28. Trump is a blowhard who would get

The crazy RW base, and nothing else.

[ericson00]

34. if he did get the nod, would the establishment GOP go along, or abandon him like Goldwater?

thats what I think would decide the election. Trump's lack of special interest money receipts cuts both ways: sounds great to voters, but does not work well with national establishment pols.

Even for the Reagan similarities; started as a Democrat, an entertainment star, Reagan was willing to get into bed with Lockheed, Exxon, etc. Trump doesn't appear to be, and that might help us in the GE if that leads the GOP establishment to abandon him like Goldwater, but it would hurt us if they don't.

[JoePhilly]

35. He won't get the nod. He's already asking for money.

He has no intention of being President. He does not have a single policy position.

Reagan had been a Governor and had been attacking Social Security and Medicare from the second he stepped onto the political stage. He was a daring of the religious conservatives.

Trump won't get above 35% of the Republican vote. He's appeal is to the nutjob wing of the GOP.

Jeb or Walker will end up with the rest. The Kochs, and other billionaires will make sure of it.

[Herman4747]

29. Yes. nt

[jazzimov]

32. "this guy is clearly the best political genius since Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan"

[NobodyHere]

37. If he can get the nomination

Then I really don't think he'd be that easy to beat.