As we approach the peak season for Atlantic hurricanes - from NOAA

[malaise]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure system is
producing a concentrated area of disturbed weather a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days while
it moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Formation chances were 10 and 20 percent respectively two hours ago.

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Peak Season Chart
From the comments over at Jeff Masters


Early tracking

[malaise]

1. Now 50% chance of formation in 48 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2