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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: "If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too"
NOTE!:The headline of this article buries the message. The key quote providing context for this headline is "Id put each of their chances at about 5 percent."
Walk away point: Trump and Carson have about the same chance of winning the Republican nomination, and that chance is a snowball's chance in hell.
Nate Silver:
Carson is a little bit different from the flavor-of-the-month candidates from 2011. At least in terms of his demeanor, hes much less bombastic than someone like Gingrich or Bachmann. And he has a much more compelling life story its not an exaggeration to say its a heroic life story. ...I guess Id put each of their chances at about 5 percent....Obviously, Carson has much higher favorables {than Trump}. He also has policy positions that are much more in line with the GOP mainstream. So, you can imagine a universe in which GOP elites grudgingly tolerate Carson, even if hes not their first (or second or third or sixth) choice, whereas theyll do everything in their power to make sure that Trump is not the nominee.
On the other hand, Trump has survived quite a bit more scrutiny so far. Not very much scrutiny as compared to what hell face between now and February. But some of it, certainly, and much more than Carson.... Weve talked before about whether Trump fits into the template of a bandwagon candidate (like Newt Gingrich or Cain) or a factional candidate (like Pat Buchanan). The answer could be: both?
...
I agree that the most likely outcome is some establishment-ish candidate Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Walker gaining momentum at the right time and winning the nomination. Its still very early too early to be paying much attention to polls. And if you do want to look at polls, Rubio and Walker have very high favorability ratings, which speaks against the notion that GOP voters are rejecting establishment choices wholesale.
But I also dont think we should be all LOL, brokered convention. Its not that far-fetched this year, as compared to most years in the past.
Harry Enten:
Let me point out one other big difference between Carson and Trump. Carsons favorable rating in the latest Monmouth University poll was 67 percent. His unfavorable rating was just 6 percent. Trump, even with improving favorables, was at a 59-29 split....Ben Carson {is more likely than Trump to win the nomination}, and Im not sure there is much doubt in my mind. Reasons include:
Hes better-liked by Republican voters, at least at this point.
Hes better-liked by party actors. He has a much more presidential demeanor than Trump. He also happens to be African-American at a time the GOP wants to reach out to black voters.
This isnt to say he is anything more than a long shot, but hes a trip to the West Coast while Trump is a trip to the moon.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)
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Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Trump is likely to win the nomination -- he's saying that the top two candidates in the Republican polls are both 20-to-1 long shots.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)I predict that a sizable portion of the repuke base will not be able to stomach a vote for Carson based on his foreign policy platform race.
edit: On the other hand, Tim Scott managed to pull it off in SC. Then again, repukes have a much bigger edge there than they do nationally.
LonePirate
(13,426 posts)Seems like the GOP is struggling to find a candidate that unites the racists, evangelicals, war mongers and Wall Street sycophants who comprise the party.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)as if this was some get-out-of-racism-free card, and if every Republican who at some time in the future claims to have voted for Carson as their stock response when their racism is exposed did ACTUALLY vote for Carson, Carson WOULD get the nomination.
JCMach1
(27,559 posts)if Trump goes down, Carson doesn't have the cash to go the distance... all he wins is a speech at the convention, game over establishment Repigs win...
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Rubio etc.)?