What is Really Behind the Refugee Crisis in Europe?

[GliderGuider]

From the blog of George Mobus, who is probably the smartest guy I know:

What is Really Behind the Refugee Crisis in Europe?

Back in July, 2013 I wrote this post, MENA - A Model of the Future? in which I dug deeper into the then crisis transpiring in Egypt where a revolt against the Morsi government was being spurred by the fact that the dwindling natural resources per capita (especially energy) were fundamentally unsolvable by any government. The people were unhappy because they thought that by voting in a new government democratically they would solve their problems (jobs, food, water, fuel, etc.) But it didn't happen for the simple reason that the resource pie was shrinking faster than any government actions (say attracting some kind of investment in the country) could counter. Things got worse and people once again took to the streets. Today, two years later, things have gotten considerably worse under the military regime that kicked out Morsi and took over. As I claimed then and reiterate, it is a matter of plain and simple physics, not politics. You cannot legislate resources into existence.

People have gotten used to thinking that solutions come from politics - having the right officials in place means that they will solve the problems. People everywhere pretty much assume this is the case, even in the US where the freak show called the presidential campaign is off and running. No doubt many republicans in the US sincerely believe that Donald Trump will solve all the problems and everything will be right as rain once again ("Make America great again&quot .

But politicians are not miracle workers. They cannot feed the multitudes from a few loaves of bread and a couple of fish. What they have become, however, right along side their neoclassical economics allies, are fair magicians — prestidigitators. They know how to manipulate smoke and mirrors and conjure economic spells. They are nothing more than snake oil con men (and women). The irony is that they actually believe what they say and are convinced they know how to really make good stuff happen. They are a testament to the capacity of the less-than-sapient mind's ability to double think.

If you want to consider your own future, imagine yourself in the shoes of one of the MENA refugees right now. Many of the ones who are making the trip had some basic monetary resources to afford the passage. But look at what they were reduced to in doing so. Imagine yourself now in a situation where the local stores are no longer stocked with food and other necessaries. Imagine your electricity being intermittent, maybe only on ten percent of the day. Imagine transportation breakdowns, perhaps gas is no longer delivered to your gas station. Imagine communications breakdowns. No Internet. No telephones (cell or land lines). What will you do?

But more than that, imagine that you decide to escape. Where will you go. The MENA refugees have Europe, ostensibly, to escape to. They expect their problems to be greatly reduced in these new lands. After all, the North is rich. Where will you go? What country will you escape to? Maybe some Americans are thinking they will go to Canada! But do they actually understand what the climate changes are going to mean for all of North America?

About George:

I teach computer science to undergraduate and graduate students as my day job. But my background is quite a bit broader. I have a PhD in CS, an MBA in Decision Science, and a baccalaureate in Zoology (with substantial coursework in math, chemistry, and oceanography) from the Seattle campus of UW.

For a time, in a prior life (pre-PhD) I managed a medium-sized electronics design and manufacturing company in Southern California, so I have some real-world management experience (successful if I do say so myself).

My first real love in the world of academics is actually biology and specifically evolutionary, cognitive, neuro-psychology! In other words I wonder how the brain works to produce the mind and how did it come about through evolution. I have dabbled in computer models of brain-like systems to control robots. See my academic website for more information.

[ellenrr]

1. what is behind the refugees is climate change,

Syria’s epic 2007-2010 drought had been developing over the course of a century of warming.
It was the worst drought in the instrumental record.

Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture.
The observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases.

The drought caused wide-spread crop failure. Farm after farm failed. By 2011, more than 1.5 million people had migrated from the ruined and desiccated rural farms to the cities. Cities became hot-beds of unrest and insurgency.

The drought led to desperation, hunger, anger, and unrest. It provided a mass of displaced persons who had lost the means to provide for themselves and their families. It provided both the trigger and the means for the development of what would later become ISIS

As Syria was experiencing its worst drought in a century, the most intense heatwave in at least 130 years was in the process of also crippling Russia’s agriculture. .

By 2011, global food prices — spurred ever-higher by wide-ranging droughts and extreme weather — put millions of people in the Middle East and North Africa in a desperate situation.
Food riots spread across the Middle East resulting in the collapse of Egyptian, Syrian, and Libyan governments.

This destabilization, in its turn, led to still more internally displaced persons in places like Libya and Egypt. Many of whom eventually joined the rising flood of human traffic to the still greener shores of Europe.


http://robertscribbler.com/2015/09/04/everything-i-dreamed-of-is-gone-how-climate-change-is-spurring-a-global-refugee-crisis-to-rapidly-worsen/
and
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241

[GliderGuider]

2. It's a witches' brew of climate change, resource depletion and population growth.

The resulting predicament is not soluble with the world's current political and economic tools. And very few have any desire to change toolkits. Certainly not those who are profiting from the current ones.