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Five Things You Need To Know Before Predicting The 2016 Election
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3. Can Hillary Clinton (or the eventual Democratic nominee) create her own base, separate from Obama’s? That question really asks a variant of this one: Are single women showing up as likely voters? Single women have become a bedrock Democratic constituency, and if Clinton is the nominee, and if Planned Parenthood battles remain in the news, the percentage of single women in the electorate could rise above the difference-making threshold. In 2007, about 50 million single women were eligible to vote; by 2012, the figure was 55.2 million. Their rate of growth was much faster than the other three gender-marital groups. The problem: getting single women to vote is harder than it should be for Democrats, compared with the effort it takes to turn out other groups. The percentage of voting-eligible married women (and men) who cast ballots in general election years is consistently about 10 percentage points higher than the turnout for single women. If that gap narrows to about 5 percentage points by fall 2016, Democrats will have an edge to re-create a winning coalition in states such as North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.
4. Who’s enthused? Here’s a metaphor for thinking about how independent or non-aligned voters respond to pressure. Think of the election as a bowl game. Team Red’s fans are on one side, and Team Blue’s fans are on the other. Which team was able to get more of its fans to the stadium? Who cheers louder? For fans who don’t have an affiliation — they’re someone’s brother who happens to be in town — how do they decide whom to root for? Chances are they’ll root for the team that feels more certain about winning, and they’ll feel social pressure to root for the team that is louder. But what makes a team more confident that it will win? Hope bias, sure, but also confidence in the ability of the team to perform well.
In close elections, it’s easy to overstate the importance of voter enthusiasm in the presidential race, and in the past few elections, the more enthused side hasn’t always won, perhaps because both parties have gotten quite good at dragging their partisans out to vote, no matter their level of passion. A better measure: are partisans happy with their candidate? If you can determine whether Democrats in September 2016 will be happier that Clinton (or her alternative) is their nominee than Republicans are with Donald Trump (or his alternative), you’ll take a step in the right direction. In 2012, the GOP led just about every enthusiasm metric except for two: Far fewer Republicans strongly supported Mitt Romney than Democrats did Obama, and Democrats liked Obama more than GOPers liked Romney. There is some evidence that these two data points are worth more than merely determining who cheers more loudly.
5. And finally: Whom do voters think will win? In 2012, a majority of registered voters believed that Obama would win fairly consistently over time. In 2008, too, Obama was seen as the likely winner by a small but clear majority. In 2004, George W. Bush was the favorite to win re-election. In 2000, the perception of who would win flip-flopped. A subtle signal, sent to voters who don’t pay attention until late, that the candidate they favor is perceived as having a disadvantage can depress turnout. (There is evidence that voters’ sense of efficacy influences how likely they are to make it to the polls.)
....
538
3. Can Hillary Clinton (or the eventual Democratic nominee) create her own base, separate from Obama’s? That question really asks a variant of this one: Are single women showing up as likely voters? Single women have become a bedrock Democratic constituency, and if Clinton is the nominee, and if Planned Parenthood battles remain in the news, the percentage of single women in the electorate could rise above the difference-making threshold. In 2007, about 50 million single women were eligible to vote; by 2012, the figure was 55.2 million. Their rate of growth was much faster than the other three gender-marital groups. The problem: getting single women to vote is harder than it should be for Democrats, compared with the effort it takes to turn out other groups. The percentage of voting-eligible married women (and men) who cast ballots in general election years is consistently about 10 percentage points higher than the turnout for single women. If that gap narrows to about 5 percentage points by fall 2016, Democrats will have an edge to re-create a winning coalition in states such as North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.
4. Who’s enthused? Here’s a metaphor for thinking about how independent or non-aligned voters respond to pressure. Think of the election as a bowl game. Team Red’s fans are on one side, and Team Blue’s fans are on the other. Which team was able to get more of its fans to the stadium? Who cheers louder? For fans who don’t have an affiliation — they’re someone’s brother who happens to be in town — how do they decide whom to root for? Chances are they’ll root for the team that feels more certain about winning, and they’ll feel social pressure to root for the team that is louder. But what makes a team more confident that it will win? Hope bias, sure, but also confidence in the ability of the team to perform well.
In close elections, it’s easy to overstate the importance of voter enthusiasm in the presidential race, and in the past few elections, the more enthused side hasn’t always won, perhaps because both parties have gotten quite good at dragging their partisans out to vote, no matter their level of passion. A better measure: are partisans happy with their candidate? If you can determine whether Democrats in September 2016 will be happier that Clinton (or her alternative) is their nominee than Republicans are with Donald Trump (or his alternative), you’ll take a step in the right direction. In 2012, the GOP led just about every enthusiasm metric except for two: Far fewer Republicans strongly supported Mitt Romney than Democrats did Obama, and Democrats liked Obama more than GOPers liked Romney. There is some evidence that these two data points are worth more than merely determining who cheers more loudly.
5. And finally: Whom do voters think will win? In 2012, a majority of registered voters believed that Obama would win fairly consistently over time. In 2008, too, Obama was seen as the likely winner by a small but clear majority. In 2004, George W. Bush was the favorite to win re-election. In 2000, the perception of who would win flip-flopped. A subtle signal, sent to voters who don’t pay attention until late, that the candidate they favor is perceived as having a disadvantage can depress turnout. (There is evidence that voters’ sense of efficacy influences how likely they are to make it to the polls.)
....
538
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