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Louisiana Governor: A Toss Up of a Run-Off
Cook Political:Six months ago, most observers of Louisiana politics would have argued that Republican Sen. David Vitter would not hit the 50 percent of the vote he needed in Saturday’s all-party primary to avoid a November 21 run-off, but that the run-off would simply be a formality. As evidence, they would point to last year’s run-off between then-GOP U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy and then-Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu.
As Saturday’s election drew closer, it became apparent that Vitter was not in an especially strong position. There were two other credible Republicans in the race, Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, both of whom presented more than respectable alternatives to voters who didn’t want to vote for Vitter. The lone Democrat – state House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards – was largely ignored by the three Republicans until the last month of the race.
Edwards consolidated the Democratic vote, finishing first with 40 percent. Vitter finished second (and finish first among the Republicans), earning the other run-off spot, but he got just 23 percent of the vote, while Angelle took 19 percent and Dardenne got 15 percent. Five minor candidates split the remaining 3 percent. To put it in some perspective, Republicans secured 57 percent of the vote cast on Saturday, yet 34 percent voted for a Republican candidate other than Vitter. Vitter is a prolific fundraiser and has been a political force in the state. At the same time, he has some vulnerabilities that seem to carry more weight with voters than we would have anticipated. The resurrection of the 2007 prostitution scandal is chief among them. Vitter faced voters in 2010 and won that race easily, leading us to believe that the scandal had already been litigated. Anti-Vitter super PACs raised the scandal again in television ads and the scandal seems to have resonated with voters. It didn’t help that a New Orleans prostitute who claimed in 2007 to have had a relationship with Vitter – one that he has always denied – came forth with a new version of their relationship that included the allegation that he got her pregnant and asked her to get an abortion. While the prostitute’s allegations seem sketchy, voters may well believe them.
...snip...
The skepticism is understandable, but the reality remains that this has become a much more competitive race than anyone would have predicted six months ago. It moves to the Toss Up column.
As Saturday’s election drew closer, it became apparent that Vitter was not in an especially strong position. There were two other credible Republicans in the race, Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, both of whom presented more than respectable alternatives to voters who didn’t want to vote for Vitter. The lone Democrat – state House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards – was largely ignored by the three Republicans until the last month of the race.
Edwards consolidated the Democratic vote, finishing first with 40 percent. Vitter finished second (and finish first among the Republicans), earning the other run-off spot, but he got just 23 percent of the vote, while Angelle took 19 percent and Dardenne got 15 percent. Five minor candidates split the remaining 3 percent. To put it in some perspective, Republicans secured 57 percent of the vote cast on Saturday, yet 34 percent voted for a Republican candidate other than Vitter. Vitter is a prolific fundraiser and has been a political force in the state. At the same time, he has some vulnerabilities that seem to carry more weight with voters than we would have anticipated. The resurrection of the 2007 prostitution scandal is chief among them. Vitter faced voters in 2010 and won that race easily, leading us to believe that the scandal had already been litigated. Anti-Vitter super PACs raised the scandal again in television ads and the scandal seems to have resonated with voters. It didn’t help that a New Orleans prostitute who claimed in 2007 to have had a relationship with Vitter – one that he has always denied – came forth with a new version of their relationship that included the allegation that he got her pregnant and asked her to get an abortion. While the prostitute’s allegations seem sketchy, voters may well believe them.
...snip...
The skepticism is understandable, but the reality remains that this has become a much more competitive race than anyone would have predicted six months ago. It moves to the Toss Up column.
Edwards wouldn't be my first choice, but going into the 2016 Election and the 2022 redistricting, I'd really rather have a Democrat.
6 replies
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with Edwards' logo on them. Just sayin'. 
Alas, turnout tends to be low in runoffs, which tends to favor the conservative. 
Chacun a son gout. 
They'll soon be pining away for the good old days of Booby. 