The guy who wrote the book on statistical analysis of voting patterns to prove election fraud

[mnhtnbb]

says he believes the data he has analyzed to this point in the KY Governor's race points to
election fraud.

KY 2015 Governor: Cumulative Vote shares indicate Likely Fraud
04 Nov

This is a CVS analysis of the KY 2015 Governor election. Matt BEVIN (R) defeated Jack CONWAY (D) 52.5%-43.8%, an 84,000 vote margin. Conway was leading in virtually all pre-election polls. The CVS analysis indicates that the polls were likely correct.

Note: I downloaded precinct vote data for the 40 largest KY counties and 7 other counties (view the spreadsheet and the graphs below). Downloading individual counties into separate sheets is a time consuming process.

The objective is to view the effects of county/precinct size on the cumulative vote share trend. Since the largest counties are usually heavily Democratic, the consistent pattern of Republican Governor candidates gaining share from small to large precincts is counter-intuitive. On the other hand, there is virtually no change in vote shares in smaller, heavily GOP counties.

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/11/04/ky-2015-governor-cumulative-vote-shares/

http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=eda-blogs/michael_collins/300410/proving_election_fraud_richard_charnin_truthisall

[yardwork]

1. So what are we going to do about it?

[tritsofme]

2. LOL...TIA? I am 99.998767'% sure this guy is off his rocker.

[L. Coyote]

6. Well, your quantifiable uncertainty is certainly probative of his sanity.

Last edited Sun Nov 8, 2015, 03:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Too bad about the statistics though.

[cantbeserious]

3. This Issue Will Never Be Settled Until We Return To Manual Vote Counting And Recounting

eom

[misterhighwasted]

4. Back to hand counted ballots.

Because if left to the RW criminal organization, corruption is how they have always acquired power.

Elminate the corruption & the RW has no power.

[L. Coyote]

5. Charnin's cumulative vote share trend analysis isn't probative of fraud method.

It does a few useful things in terms of descriptive statistics, but the initial analysis of data doesn't prove anything. Beginning with unproven assumptions and thinking anything probative can result is also flawed logic. But watch the herd go over the cliff on this until it becomes urban legend, all without anyone giving any thought to the statistics, least of all the OP poster who elevates the blogger to guy who wrote the book on statistical analysis. This method has been debated before and there is no cause for excitement here when the same false assumptions lead to the same false conclusions as always.

[Hannahcares]

7. Unusual pattern of vote increases in larger precincts

The pattern of increased Republican votes in larger precincts has been analyzed by multiple Ejection Integrity Advocates since 2008. Francois Choquette and James
Johnson published a well-documented paper in 2012 showing how this vote-flipping process works. Thus same methodology, using larger precincts to flip dem votes to Republican has been demonstrated by statisticians in multiple primary and governor's races. I believe this is the same pattern Kathy Clarkson in Sedgewick County KS is pursuing relevant to the Brownback victory when he was so far behind in the polls.

Wake up, DU! I've been here since 2004, working on voters rights issues. If we don't mobilize now, it won't matter who is nominated for 2016. The presidential election will be stolen. What can we do? MOBILIZE! Write to the Justice Department requesting an investigation. Write to the ACLU, write to Larry Norden, long time election integrity advocate at the Brennan Center at NYU. Write to David Dill, election computer expert, write to the IT gurus at Princeton who routinely hacked into electronic voting machines.

Instead of opining on whether this is a valid analysis, why take the chance? The GOP owns the voting machinery and "proprietary" software. How naive are we if we let them get away with flipping votes and stealing elections! Let's MOVE, while we still have the White House!!
Where is Kath and Hedda and other DU folks who cared about honest elections?
Will try to post links to relevant studies and possible contacts in a separate thread!
Peace, Hannah

[L. Coyote]

10. is attributable to larger precinct sizes in Republican-dominated wards and precincts.

Republican areas have larger precincts and reporting wards, this much is well known fact and not in contention, no black box spewing out that demographic disparity. So, if this guy sorts the precincts by size, the sort order produces the effect that is misconstrued to be fraud in every election he studies. If you randomize his data to remove his biased sort order, the effect disappears.

What we can do is not attack the integrity of elections without cause or justification. Suppresssing voting with false flags is not very democratic in my opinion.

Don't go off and start writing to all these people about a hoax. They have enough to do without getting harrassed by web chatter.

[Hannahcares]

12. This vote flipping is happening in both dem and republican precincts

The operative "fix" here is vote flipping in larger precincts where the totals are more easily hidden and explained. See http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/breaking-retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-is-stealing-elections/article20598.html
And hundreds if other articles for details. (Happy to PM you a long list of studies back to 2008)


Curious - do you have some background, experience or credentials in this field? You seem awfully quick to dismiss some very serious studies by a group of highly educated and experienced election integrity advocates. Peace, Hannah

[L. Coyote]

13. "Curious - do you have some background, experience or credentials in this field?"

If you don't know that, perhaps you should do a search before pointing me at my own research.

I'm the guy who proved exactly where the votes were switched.

[Stuart G]

8. k and r..no text

[former9thward]

9. This is silly.

The election machinery is under control of Democrats in these counties. Did they conspire against their candidate? The fact is that the Democratic candidate got the votes he was going to get in the pre-election polls. What decided the election is that the undecided (or people who told pollsters they were undecided) broke for the Republican candidate. Also the pre-election support for the Indie cratered on election day which often happens with third parties.

[Hannahcares]

11. This is definitely not silly

The election machinery AND SOFTWARE is under the control of the voting machine manufacturers.
Well-meaning election officials at the county and precinct level can follow all of the "chain of custody" rules leading up to and following the elections, and still not have a clue as to what algorithms (for vote flipping) are embedded in the machines "proprietary software" .

I spent years in TN working with local election officials on their audit procedures and capabilities. Very nice folks - both Dems and Repubs...well-meaning and conscientious. They had NO CONTROL over the software inside their equipment, whether it was DREs, optical scanners counting hand-marked ballots, etc.

Not to say that we don't need to get our voters to the polls- that's how Obama overcame the "fixes" embedded in the tallying software in larger precincts, but Dems will never win these keys elections again unless we eliminate the "proprietary" software and make certain each vote is counted as it was intended. (How convenient that exit polling is no longer done in The US!)

If you would like more information, suggested you start with this analysis done in 2012 by some very bright statisticians during the Republican Primary.

http://madisonvoices.com/pdffiles/2008_2012_ElectionsResultsAnomaliesAndAnalysis_V1.5.pdf

We ignore this at our peril. Won't matter who we nominate if we don't get this embedded software glitch that flips votes from Dems to republicans in larger precincts. Witness Kansas gov election last year, MA 2014 gov election, recent VA state senate election, and countless others where pre-election polling turned out to be "wrong". And it always flips from Dem to Repub, never the reverse, no matter which party controls the state levers.

Wake up Dems - we are being played for passive fools. Repubs are laughing all the way to the statehouse, the Senate and House, and beyond. Peace, Hannah

[L. Coyote]

14. How can you still make this statement when the premise is disproven?

"... this embedded software glitch that flips votes from Dems to republicans in larger precincts."

So, does the machine know what size the precinct it is in? Or, does the software come in large and small?

This is like belief in gods right, you need to be a member of the faithful? Show me this glitch? I've done the statistics with a fine tooth comb. What did i miss, other than your assertion based on what, yet another voter suppression blog post purporting every election is stolen?

[Hannahcares]

15. Please provide a link to your published statistics

Interested in the statistical work you have done In this area. Appreciate a link to your published (or unpublished) studies. Peace, Hannah

[L. Coyote]

16. Please provide some reason to accept what you say first.

Attack the credentials of the inquisitor? Really? That's the modus operandi of the person you link, and why he is twice banned on DU.

[former9thward]

17. Yeah, the Democatic Party is so stupid that they don't know the software is against them.

Only you know that. The KY governorship has been in the hands of Democrats for almost all of the last 40 years. How come the crafty Republicans waited this long to tell the software to flip votes?

[RobertEarl]

23. No elected official has the guts to speak out

There was one in Alabama and he's in jail on trumped up charges. Seigeleman (sp)?

Courts have sided with the companies anytime outsiders have wanted to look at the code.

There have been repeated findings of computer miscounts. It happens, and was only discovered because an honest official spoke out. No telling how many other miscounts have snuck in.

[LanternWaste]

25. No doubt, that is indeed, the most valid premise you yourself are able to allege...

No doubt, that is indeed, the most valid premise you yourself are able to allege...

[RobertEarl]

18. Stolen elections?

Republicans wouldn't do that.

And computers are never hacked.

Just because republicans have gained hundreds of elected offices since e-vote counting started is no reason for concern.

Math people are not wise enough to uncover manufactured numbers.

Everything is ok, people. Go back to sleep. All is code green!

[L. Coyote]

19. Republicans do do that, computers can be hacked, e-voting is insanely unverifiable, stats works, and

everything is NOT O.K. Wake up and use your critical reasoning.

And don't fall for the bullshit that every election is stolen because Republican precincts have more voters on average. Are people really this easily fooled?

[RobertEarl]

20. Wow

That went right over your head.

Which should tell others here that your words on the matter should probably be tossed.

No. Not probably, definitely tossed.

The way to steal votes is in the precincts. The larger the precinct the easier it is to hide the theft.

The computers that count the votes are programmed by the company that made the machines. There is NO local control over the programming, and you can bet there will be NO proper audit.

[L. Coyote]

21. Wow, CVS refutation went right over your head.

The ways to steal votes are myriad, and not necessarily in the precincts. Precinct size has no correlation with ease of hiding election theft.

You did get one thing right, the counting is programmed by the corporations who own the machines. But there can be controls and there can be audits if the machines count paper ballots.

Go back up thread. You missed the sentence or two that it took to refute CVS.

[RobertEarl]

22. Like I said

Your words are not worthy.

There is NO proper audit anywhere in the stream.

No elected politician has enough guts to go up against the thefts, so there will be no uncovering by any politician.

The only way to uncover the theft is to use the courts and until now every judge has sided with the companies who desire to hide their code.

[L. Coyote]

26. So, you know the elections are rigged because you can't show they are not? Is that close?

I'm not saying they are not rigged, so don't harass my words. Just support the assertion made that they are with something more than "we got nothing, therefore ...." and without saying where they were so fixed. This "in the big precincts because they are big" bullshit doesn't meet any level of logic or probity. Cough up or it is your words that are vacuous.

[RobertEarl]

27. No level of logic?

All you have is personal attacks on a concerned citizen?

There is a ton of evidence that numbers of votes have been stolen. There are factual histories of votes gone 'missing'. Every time a concerned citizen asks to examine the code and the computers to find out why the votes went missing, the courts have said no, you can't look under the hood.

No one should believe what you have written, is all I am saying.

[L. Coyote]

28. "No one should believe what you have written" if you are falling for the CVS "method"

is what I am saying. But you want to move the goal post. Do you know that CVS is a pile of bullshit or not?

[HomerRamone]

24. K & R nt