Could Donald Trump actually win?

[cali]

What once seemed to be utterly ridiculous now seems plausible.

It's entirely possible he'll win the republican nomination and face Hillary.

Would the American electorate be stupid enough to vote for someone with no experience in government over someone who has tons of experience? Sure they would.

There are masses of people who believe that the Presidency really is analogous to being a CEO and who view Trump as a successful CEO.

Nothing motivates Republicans to vote like the prospect of voting against HRC. Will democrats be as motivated?

On terrorism, a recent post-Paris poll shows that voters are evenly divided between the two as to who would be best on the issue.

swing states: Recent polls show Trump beating HRC in CO and Florida- by significant margins.

Americans appear to be in a cycle of strong distaste for career politicians. Many voters seem to believe that HRC is indebted to Wall Street and corporations, and that Trump is not.

Historical precedent: The party having held the WH for two terms, rarely wins.

The unthinkable has become possible.



http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/latest-fau-poll-has-trump-lapping-the-field-in-florida-as-clinton-trails-in-matchups-with-gop-frontrunners-300181074.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-exclusive-after-paris-americans-see-trump-clinton-as-most-able-to-address-terrorism-poll-2015-11
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/10/donald-trump-could-be-president

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2015-11-18/clinton-far-behind-4-republicans-in-swing-state-colorado-poll

[99th_Monkey]

1. Big Dawg Told Trump To Run

If Trump's the R nominee, he'll take a dive for Hillary. It's her turn dammit.

[cali]

2. Trump take a dive for anyone? His ego precludes that.

[99th_Monkey]

4. When it's 6 one, 1/2 a dozen the other in the GE.

Wall St./MIC/1% wins

[KamaAina]

28. There is a difference between bad and worse, and it is far sharper than that between good and better

-Robert A. Heinlein.

[el_bryanto]

6. What evidence do you have to support this theory? nt

[99th_Monkey]

15. Did you not really know this? Trump & Clintons are part of the same "Big Club"

George Carlin famously talked about:

We May Have Bill Clinton to Thank for Donald Trump's Presidential Run"
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2015/08/bill-clinton-donald-trump

Is Donald Trump Running a False Flag Campaign to Help Hillary Clinton?
http://blackbag.gawker.com/is-donald-trump-running-a-false-flag-campaign-to-help-h-1723925057

Bill Clinton and Donald Trump held 2016 chat
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/05/politics/donald-trump-bill-clinton-2016/

[el_bryanto]

17. So no actual proof other than speculation? Thanks for the clarification. nt

[99th_Monkey]

21. You asked, I provided 3 links, CNN, MoJo, Gawker. You continue to indulge in denial. Fine.

[el_bryanto]

22. I read your links - links are not the same as proof nt

[99th_Monkey]

24. I can't "prove" the sun will come up tomorrow either.

FACT: Former president Bill Clinton had a private telephone conversation in late spring with Donald Trump at the same time that the billionaire investor and reality-television star was nearing a decision to run for the White House, according to associates of both men.



FACT: Four Trump allies and one Clinton associate familiar with the exchange said that Clinton encouraged Trump’s efforts to 'play a larger role' in the Republican Party and 'offered his own views' of the political landscape.

FACT: Clinton’s personal office in New York confirmed that the call occurred in late May.

Another link for you to ignore.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bill-clinton-called-donald-trump-ahead-of-republicans-2016-launch/2015/08/05/e2b30bb8-3ae3-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html

[cali]

29. So what? That isn't remotely evidence for your claim.

[99th_Monkey]

30. Whether Trump takes a dive for Her Presumtiveness, or the other way around

Either way, Wall St./MIC/BigOil/BigPharma/1% wins. <-- this is my claim, and I stand by it.

You obviously disagree.. that doesn't change the fact that a Trump v. Clinton GE
means the middle class loses, along with any chance to salvage what's left of this once
great democracy from the Oligarchy that is trying to buy it..

[Tommy_Carcetti]

39. What you don't seem to realize about Donald Trump is....

....his ego's in constant need of petting. So communicating with a former President is a YYYYUUUGGGEEE deal to him. It shows he still rubs elbows with the powerful.

That doesn't mean it's a reciprocal arrangement. Bill Clinton has met with nearly every single rich and powerful person this world has to offer over the past 25 years. Donald Trump is a nobody compared to most of those people.

So Donald Trump calling up Bill Clinton might be a big deal to Donald Trump, but I doubt Bill Clinton really cared that Donald Trump sought him out. Humoring him over the phone for five minutes hardly means the two were conspiring on electoral shenanigans.

[99th_Monkey]

43. Since we don't have a transcript of the call, I suppose your speculation is as good as mine.

To me, this all-too-evident coziness of the Trump/Clintons relationship socially -- and often privately at posh parties -- reeks to high heaven, and is emblematic of how the 1% titans of wealth & privilege laugh all the way to the bank, while "playing" the rest of us for fools.

This kind of cozy insider Establishment politics is the problem, not the solution.

[librechik]

3. If he doesn't get butthurt over nothing and drop out in a huff

he will win the Republican nomination.

However, the RNC might balk at the last minute and force a brokered convention in which they will choose a candidate behind closed doors more or less, and wind up with a different candidate than the obvious,

None of this will help, as it is pretty clear they are all lunatics, and only the lunatics are committed to voting for them. They are so unpopular they might even try not stealing this election since it won't even be close, no matter who the Dems pick.

[valerief]

5. Dubya getting elected seemed impossible. Okay, he wasn't actually elected by the populace.

He had SCOTUS and then vote flips in Ohio get him selected. But he was the figurehead president for 8 years.

[MillennialDem]

16. When Dubya ran in 2000, he lost the popular vote AND more importantly

only the very oldest millennials were even eligible to vote in 2000.

[valerief]

37. And now the states are further gerrymandered in the GOP's favor, and

the oligarchs are exercising massive voter suppression and doing their damnedest to get as many millenials in prison for their slave labor and additional voter suppression and cycle of poverty.

[treestar]

42. Even so , he had at least been governor of a state

Trump's ego is remarkable for not running for Senate first.

[0rganism]

7. yes

any Republican nominee has a pretty good chance in the GE. personal characteristics are secondary, and will only fiddle around on the margins -- they could make a difference in a close election.

Trump's biggest obstacle will be his own desire for the job -- i don't get the feeling he really wants to do it. it doesn't matter what party you're from and how shitty you do, there's still a lot of work to be done. even W didn't get through unscathed. you get a lot of pressure and responsibility for what is not (to a Trump) a whole lot of salary.

someone who has no sense of civic responsibility would find such work ... taxing.

[kimbutgar]

8. Trump has diarrhea mouth and will eventually say something horrible off mike that will caught on

Mike that will destroy him.

The movie, Face in the crowd" reminds me of trump.

[cali]

9. He's said so many outrageous things that voters are becoming inured to it.

[0rganism]

10. he says horrible shit every week

the whore media fawningly covers 24/7 the vile sewage he spews.

Republicans apparently find it endearing.

it won't play as well in the general, but that won't make it easy for the D nominee.

[TBF]

11. Bernie stacks up very well against him

in the polls. That is what democrats should be focusing on.

[mnhtnbb]

12. I cannot see him getting the nomination.

[phantom power]

13. One of the better observations I read was....

Whoever ends up being the GOP candidate will receive 45% of the vote in the general election, just by showing up. Now picking up that last additional 6% is the hard part, but I think anybody who believes it can't possibly happen is deluded.

It's disturbing that one of our two major parties has essentially lost its mind. Because the fact is, they will wield enormous power even if they don't "win." And they might win.

[n2doc]

20. Yes. But turnout also makes a difference

We know the RW nutcase base will vote in any election, 2010 and 2014 showed that. Will the Democratic Nominee be able to generate enough enthusiasm from D's and I's to overcome that? Or will people stay home again because they aren't inspired?

[Rex]

14. Yes. I don't think he can beat HRC. But he can win the GOP primary.

And he has unlimited money and resources. He is considered a joke...but that is a mistake imo.

[MillennialDem]

18. Outside of an extreme October Surprise or economic meltdown, no. You will be

hearing this on election night over and over again "The demographics have changed"

[cali]

25. Demographics have changed but not enough to ensure a dem victory

Take a look at swing state polling

[MillennialDem]

47. Republicans will have to vastly overperform just to eek out a barely victory. So it's not mathematic

ally impossible but it's extremely long odds.

[FLPanhandle]

19. I'm hoping he doesn't go down in flames until after winning the GOP nomination

I think he will alienate 3/4 of voters before the general.

[cali]

26. Not realistic. At all.

[lame54]

23. look to his right and to his left...

of course he can win

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

27. Sure.

If it's Trump vs Clinton, I think it's anybody's guess who wins.

[AZ Progressive]

31. Liberals didn't think that Reagan and George W. Bush would win, and look what happened...

[Dems to Win]

32. Bomb thrower Trump vs. Establishment Status Quo Hillary? Yeah, he can win

Many Americans, including many independents and Democrats, think it is perfectly reasonable to expect the federal government to enforce our immigration laws. On this issue alone, I think there's a good chance Trump will win.

The Establishment of both parties has not created a country where things are going well for most people. I don't think a status quo candidate, who is competent in the current system, will draw enough people to the polls to beat an anti-Establishment candidate.

We'll have a MUCH better chance of victory if we follow the enthusiastic young people and nominate Bernie.

[restorefreedom]

33. the unthinkable has been possible since the beginning

ever since the establishment darling jeb! failed to take off, its been the trump show. and since we know the establishment wants hillary, a hillary/trump matchup is possible. i hope bernie gets to the ge, and he will best trump according to the polls, but if it is hillary, get used to saying president trump. she is very unlikely to beat him, especially now.

[Gothmog]

34. Predictwise gives Trump at a 8% chance of winning which is twice the chance it gives to Sanders

Trump is a weak general election candidate who will get less than 20% of the Latino vote and the GOP needs 45% to have a chance. Predictwise wise gives Trump a 8% chance and gives Sanders only a 4% chance of being POTUS http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

[Va Lefty]

35. Sadly yes he can win

if another major city like Baltimore riots next summer, I can see him running on a "Law and Order" platform like Nixon in '68 and winning. If, God forbid, we have a major terrorist attack in the US he would win.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

36. Not impossible, but unlikely.

It's certainly not impossible that Trump could beat Clinton (or O'Malley), but his appeal outside of his core vote is so limited that the odds would be heavily against him.

If the Democrats pick Sanders, who has the same problem, and the Republicans pick Trump, then all bets are off - the force is so stoppable and the object so moveable that anything could happen. But that's very unlikely twice over to happen.

[BlueStater]

38. The nomination? Yes.

The election? Nope.

He has some of the highest negative ratings of any candidate. Hispanics aren't going to vote for him. Most women aren't going to vote for him. Young voters see him as the racist, sexist windbag that he is. His support comes primarily from white men over 40, which isn't a large enough demographic to win with just their votes alone.

He's fucked.

[ibegurpard]

45. you leave out the factor of people not voting at all

[kairos12]

40. If we take another 9/11 style hit he probably would win.

[Douglas Carpenter]

41. I wish I could say it is impossibe. But in a country where at least 32 states want to ban refugees

running away from terrorism and close to half the country say Donald Trump would be the best candidate at fighting terrorism - I have to admit that it is possible.

[ibegurpard]

44. Of course.

We elected Reagan...who no one took seriously.
The biggest city in our much more liberal neighbor to the north elected a crack - smoking buffoon mayor...twice. do not EVER underestimate the ignorance of an electorate or the power of an angry populace hungry for change.

[Vinca]

46. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he wins.

The only thing that might save the Dem candidate is if the semi-sane in the GOP don't vote or vote Democratic. The election isn't generating as much excitement on the left as it is on the right and that's a bad thing for this country.

[Timmy5835]

48. The ONLY way Trump or any other Republican can win this election is.....

Last edited Wed Nov 18, 2015, 07:34 PM - Edit history (1)

If one of them can garner at least 46% of the Latino vote. Falling short mean a Democratic win. Think about it, it's Latinos that could actually decide this election.