Behind Ted Cruz’s Rise in the Polls: Lopsided Support

[applegrove]

Behind Ted Cruz’s Rise in the Polls: Lopsided Support

by Nate Cohn at the NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/upshot/ted-cruz-gathers-strength-but-is-still-weak-around-the-middle.html?_r=0

"SNIP..............


Polls say Ted Cruz is gaining in Iowa, where two new ones show him reaching second place with around 20 percent of the vote.

But the same polls suggest he has a big challenge: He has very little support outside of a growing base of self-described “very conservative” voters.

“Very conservative” voters can propel Mr. Cruz to victory in Iowa, a caucus state, but according to exit poll data from 2008 and 2012, those types of voters represent a smaller share of the electorate in every primary state. To win, he will need to broaden his appeal, count on a divided field or hope to face a candidate with even more limited appeal.

In the most recent Quinnipiac survey of Iowa, he had a large 16-point lead among voters who described themselves as “very conservative.” With 38 percent of their support, his strength there was greater than that of any other candidate in any ideological category. But he held the support of just 14 percent of “somewhat conservative” voters and a mere 6 percent of self-described moderate or liberal Republicans. The most recent national Quinnipiac survey showed the same basic breakdown in support for him.



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[struggle4progress]

1. He'll be another flash-in-the-pan

[applegrove]

2. I really hope so. People like Cruz warp those around them.

[struggle4progress]

3. The Republican coalition is an unstable mix of

laissez-faire corporatists, ideological libertarians, social-issue conservatives, fundamentalists, bigots and racists and xenophobes, and low-information voters

Cruz plays well in his little corner of Texas but he doesn't really have a clue about the rest of the country and he won't figure it out in time to become a front-runner

His radical rightwing christianity will appeal to some fundamentalists and social conservatives, but it costs him among the libertarians. His Cuban/Canadian background won't play well with the bigots and xenophobes. The corporatists will worry he's a loose cannon. That campaign is guaranteed to sputter and stall

[applegrove]

4. I hope.