Bernie and New Hampshire
This is just my observation, far worse than a junk poll, no scientific standing, but...
I grew up in Vermont. I lived in Burlington when Bernie was mayor. It was great! Burlington is Vermont's version of San Francisco or Boulder, CO (to put it in a social-position perspective, if you're not familiar).
I now live in New Hampshire. Circumstances, mainly. I'd rather be back in Vermont. Regardless...
New Hampshire has (on the law books) a first-in-the-nation primary. It is actually, I think, despite what some might think, a decent testbed for a candidate. People wonder why, because NH is small and very monochromatic, but it's also market-isolated (media campaigns can be judged well). It has the other benefit of a candidate being able to drive from the bottom (Nashua/Manchester) to the top (Dixville Notch, by the frickin' Canadian border, where the first votes are cast at midnight) in the same day. So a low-funded candidate could traverse the state cheaply. And you can get from Manchester to the coast (Portsmouth) in like an hour - these are prime speaking places; Manchester is one of the top two economic hubs, and Portsmouth has the former naval base (Pease), and both are under 2 hours to Boston. That also makes it a good testbed.
That said, New Hampshire has Kelly Ayotte. That should tell you something to start. Where Vermont is quite liberal/progressive, New Hampshire seems to run much more conservative. In thinking about it, I almost think it's more libertarian than actually formally conservative.
Bernie is a known quantity in NH, for better or worse. Vermont transplants generally favor him, I think, but NH voters are a bit more skeptical. I'm not convinced it dominates, but there's certainly a strong conservative/libertarian streak in NH. The state motto, "Live Free or Die" should give you a clue as to the attitude to politics.
I get the impression - although this is just my interactions (self-selected, and therefore not scientific) - that NH is edging more to the Dem side in this election. There's a very strong Republican presence, but the Vermont and Boston influences are starting to encroach/speak up.
NH on the Republican side will go for Trump or Cruz or whoever's at the top. They ain't gonna switch parties. On the Democratic side, it's sort of mixed between Hillary and Bernie. It's almost like the heart says "Bernie" but the brain says "Hillary". That might sum it up.
Overall, I think NH will vote for a Democrat, but the Republican side is not going to swap to Bernie or even Hillary. In this respect I think it decently mirrors/foretells the nation. They'll do the Republican candidate regardles of whether it's Trump or Cruz (God forbid either). I also think that Christie, who is also a known quantity, being from nearby Boston, would do well (and frankly that's one of the few on that side that doesn't scare me). If they're not Trump or Cruz, they don't even count, at least not yet, for NH.
Anyway, my 2c.
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