Stepped away from a family gathering to say to you all, there is a very real danger of tRump winning

[mahina]

I'm in a little bit of shock but want to be really clear with this whole community.

This guy is no joke, though even the thought of him becoming president should be one.

He has a real chance. Anybody who throws mud on either of our candidates, I am ignoring, not that anybody here gives a rats. But out there in the world, please don't get this dangerous imbecilic mouth breathing fascist SOB on first base for the wingers.

Please.

[-none]

1. Relax, Bernie will be running in the general.

[mahina]

2. Jaysus I sure hope so.

[SusanCalvin]

3. Unless someone seriously breaks new news here,

It's nothing the Rs won't throw. (Nevertheless, stuff on both sides here is bothersome to me, just for uselessness.)

Even so, yeah, Trump and his supporters scare the hell out of me. It's not funny.

[Whiskeytide]

4. I'm not taking Trump lightly...

..., and although his BS has often been entertaining to those of us that follow politics closely, the fact that he has so much support - make that unwavering support - is making me want to cry for my country.

But I have a question for you.

Which of the other republican candidates would you prefer overtake Trump and win the primary? And to take it a step further, assuming for a moment (without vomiting if you can) that the republican candidate wins the general election, which one would you rather see in the Whitehouse?

I loathe Trump. But I loathe them all. I can't decide how to rank them. They're all at zero for me.

[mahina]

15. Kasich in a walk

He's the only one that might not push us over the cliff.

[Whiskeytide]

17. Except, if you listen to our Ohio...

... DUers, he's been a nightmare for progressive causes and ideals, broken the back of labor, is a shill for corporatism, and is in the pocket of the Koch cabal. Kasich is the quiet, unassuming, benevolent kind of asshole that takes advantage of the fact that you don't see him coming. I don't see that as much of an improvement over Trump. Different, but not better.

But again, they're ALL bad. We have to keep them all away from the Whitehouse.

[mahina]

21. It was a tough question.

Which flavor of crap sandwich do I prefer?

Anyway, why do Ohioans keep electing these guys?

[jen63]

22. We just voted against redistricting

in Nov. Hopefully these fucksticks will start to go. Portman is vulnerable and Ted Strickland is running against him. Ted is campaigning like crazy. Kasich is definitely as bad as the others; he's dangerous because he makes you think he's the adult in the room.

[HughBeaumont]

23. 12-14 consistently Democratic counties surrounded by a Sea of Tea, that's why.

Our suburban and rural populations are chock-loaded with water-carriers for the wealthy and Tali-bornagains.

And dear God, CHURCHES EVERYWHERE. To give you an example . .. . within a 3 mile radius of my house, there are 17 churches. SEVENTEEN.

Is it any wonder why our state legislature has been predominantly under Republican control for almost 20 years straight?

These idiots are still blaming Strickland for Bewsh's economic shenanigans. That's how a Wall Streeter like Kat$hit swept in here.

I seriously don't get how Sherrod Brown, one of the most progressive voices in the Senate, even won one term, let alone two. Probably because he was running against loser Bewsh rubberstamp Mike Dewine, who's now doing far more damage as our Attorney General.

[irisblue]

61. Ohio keeps electing fools like Dewine & Kasich

b/c the state wide Dem party was very poorly and weakly run for years. there is now a new statewide Dem leader ( Besides Sen. Sherrod Brown), David Pepper and I am hoping for more ground game and better candidate recruiting.

[KingCharlemagne]

47. Kasich is the only one with the guts so far to make a campaign spot calling

Trump a fascist. I think he deserves a little respect for that:

[Whiskeytide]

52. Maybe. But since I think his shtick is mostly...

... Kabuki theatre, is it ok if I only give him some Kabuki respect?

[RKP5637]

27. Kasich sounds less wacky than the rest of them, but then many in Ohio per DU have

problems with him. IMO any R in the WH is going to sink this country for millions and millions.

Pulling this from someone else's post about Kasich:

he's dangerous because he makes you think he's the adult in the room.

[thesquanderer]

62. The one who wants to "punch Russia in the nose." (n/t)

[LibDemAlways]

19. Choosing one of the Repuke

candidates over the others is like choosing between having stomach flu or food poisoning. The result is the same, and it's all too terrible to contemplate.

[ms liberty]

36. This. n/t

[Jim Lane]

20. I would prefer Trump as President over most of them.

The ones that scare me the most are the theocrats -- Cruz, Santorum, and Huckabee (in that order of terror).

What scares me about most of the rest is that I think they'd largely be party hacks. They would go along with the Congressional leadership, which is terrified of the Tea Party. Trump is more of a wild card is more likely to do what he wants if he thinks the GOP orthodoxy is wrong. The GOP orthodoxy is just about 100% wrong, so any deviation by Trump is likely to be an improvement.

[exboyfil]

28. Cruz scares me the most

I think Rubio is a typical opportunist, and I am not sure on fiscal and international issues he would be much different than Hillary Clinton. Huckabee and Santorum and jokes and will never ever get close to the nomination.

Cruz on the other hand is "anointed by God". He is a great speaker and debater. He has significant legislative and cabinet experience. He has the resume to be President. He is also flat out a true believer, and his vision is apocalyptic. He is the kind of guy who will think nothing about using nukes if it is "God's will". He reminds me of the politician in The Dead Zone.

He is so young, and unless he is caught with a dead girl or a live boy, he is going to be knocking at the door for the next 10-15 years.

[Chemisse]

37. I agree. He is the scariest of them all.

Because he is possessed with extreme religious fervor.

[JHB]

49. I think the biggest worry is a Trump/Cruz combo...

I don't mean a Cruz VPship, but rather Cruz staying in Congress getting the votes Trump needs on some legislation... as long as The Donald backs Cruz on advancing key parts of the evangelical theocrats' agenda.

[Jim Lane]

60. I think a Trump/Cruz TICKET is a possibility

You mention Cruz staying in Congress to round up votes. He'd be bad at that. He's possibly the most widely disliked person in either chamber. As Trump's VP, however, he'd have a lot of say over mundane governance things that didn't happen to interest Trump, which would probably be quite a bit.

It's possible -- not likely, but possible -- that, after the last primary, no Republican will have a majority of the delegates. One obvious solution is for two candidates who have many delegates, and who together have a majority, to cut a deal. That could well give us Trump/Cruz. Any Democrat would be favored over that team but it would not be the slam dunk that some DUers seem to think.

[thesquanderer]

63. Out of a bad bunch, I'd pick Rand Paul

At least he has a few things right... which beats everyone else.

[Jim Lane]

66. Rand Paul is probably the best of them on foreign policy.

Any of them would push for bad things domestically, but the President has more control over foreign policy, so Paul might be the least bad for that reason.

[thesquanderer]

67. Also on civil liberties (i.e. patriot act) and trade policy (i.e. TPP) (n/t)

[yardwork]

5. Yes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Been there since at least July early August

[sonofspy777]

7. Newsflash: Bernie Crushes Trump

no worries mate!

[Stinky The Clown]

8. uh . . . .

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election`_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[Skittles]

14. where do you get that from?

most people I know could not tell me who Bernie Sanders is

[thesquanderer]

64. From things like this...

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/264023-in-blockbuster-poll-sanders-destroys-trump-by-13

But yeah, everyone picks the polls they like...

[FrodosPet]

30. Cool! I can chill at home on election day!

Since it is in the bag.

Errrrr...NOPE!

[MichMan]

9. Jesse Ventura

Nobody gave Jesse Ventura a chance in hell of winning either. Yet he won the governorship of a progressive state, Minnesota

[Snarkoleptic]

10. Some years ago, I recall hearing dismissive comments regarding the Presidential viability

of a certain dim-witted B-movie actor, who had a knack for communicating with those lacking critical thinking skills and an understanding of the issues.

[SusanCalvin]

13. Yep.

https://m.

[Bluenorthwest]

31. I don't. I'm from CA, where Ron had been twice elected. His viability was well proven and he'd done

years and years of political stumping prior to any candidacy. He'd also won, via dubious influences and election systems, the Presidency of the Screen Actor's Guild.
So Ronnie had won lots of elections, arranged and otherwise. He was also not his own chain of command as Trump is. Ron started off as Lew Wasserman's errand boy in politics.

[Logical]

11. No he doesn't really! He will hand us a win! Nt

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

12. Well every DU family gathering is all Republicans anyway....

....it seems, so I'm not too worried.

[mahina]

16. Not here

That's what has me so unsettled.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. You are saying your family of Dems are for him??? nt

[mahina]

39. Our family has voted for Democrats, worked for Democrats, volunteered,

Precinct and district officers, forever, without exception.

Until now.

Not saying everybody but enough to chill me to the bone.

[jazzimov]

18. He won't even win the Republican nom

They hate him.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Politico has a survey up now of predictions and some think Trump

will crash after the first 4 primaries. One prediction...Cruz/Nicky Haley (sp?)

I don't see what will stop Trump. If they had real dirt on him - wouldn't they have thrown it by now?

But...he can't win the general because even if he gets half the republicans - that's only 1/4 of the general. And, there are lots of Republicans who hate him.

[RKP5637]

26. We'll know likely after the first few primaries. I'm starting to think Cruz might get their

nomination and that is pretty F'en scary too.

[exboyfil]

32. Yes indeed

put him with Kasich, and I think you might have a real problem. Looking at the electoral map could Cruz pull Florida (the only reason to have Rubio instead for the Republicans). Assume all red states go red again (I think all were won by healthy margins last time). Through Florida and Ohio into the mix, and it is a crap shot after that. Iowa??? Cruz might carry it in a general election. I would like to think not, but all those folks buying Ben Carson books are going to need someone to vote for.

Republicans hold Romney states.
They pick up Florida and Ohio.
They win Iowa and either Minnesota or Wisconsin.
It is 269/269 with the Democrat probably having 5%+ more in the popular vote.

[RKP5637]

34. It's the stuff nightmares are made of! n/t

[mahina]

40. That's helpful.

Thanks.

What happens if we do come out tied?

[exboyfil]

43. House decides by state

Each state gets one vote. If the votes of the Representatives are tied, then that state loses its vote (but the process gets repeated until 26 states decide for the new President). Almost a certainty to be a Republican given the likely composition of the new House. The Senate is more interesting because each Senator gets a vote. In the case of a tie, then Biden gets the deciding vote. President Cruz/Vice President Castro??? Could happen.

[mahina]

48. Thank you.

[mahina]

42. If not trump, I think it could be Cruz.

Damn, I wish the people behind these guys could be voted on directly.

[exboyfil]

35. I am not sure how Haley would help Cruz

Look at the electoral map from 2012. Which Republican states do you think that Cruz would lose if he is the top of the ticket. He already won a state wide election in Texas which is a good indicator of his strength in the other red states. I think he only jeopardizes North Carolina from Romney's totals.

Romney's states
Florida because almost anything can happen in Florida
Ohio because of Kasich as V.P. and the GOP machine
Iowa because a significant portion of the state loves its evangelicals (remember we keep sending King back to Congress)
Wisconsin or Minnesota
269 to 269 and Ted Cruz is the next president of the U.S.

It can happen. We will be in it deep if it does, and I am thinking The Dead Zone except the politician succeeds in becoming President.

[TexasBushwhacker]

59. I would be very surprised if he got the nomination

despite his support. The GOP establishment hates him. He wouldn't have anyone to rig the election for him.

[jwirr]

68. The establishment hate him. I have been afraid of Trump for

a long time.

As some of you know my heritage is German American. I grew up ashamed of being of that heritage due to Hitler. I do not want to go through that again and I definitely do not want my children and their children to feel that way about their country.

All the R candidates are dangerous.

[Amimnoch]

29. Last I looked, Trump is sitting at around 35%

In second place, currently they have Cruz who's about 15ish points behind him.

We have 3x great candidates (that's right, when all is said and done, I do think Bernie is a great candidate as well.. just not the best one). They still have a mess of Candidates. After the first few elections, they will likely start narrowing down their field.

I fully expect most who drop out to throw their endorsement against Trump, and on to whomever is the other frontrunner. I likewise don't expect trump to get much more than what he's getting as the others drop out of the race.

Trump is only their front-runner right now due to there being so many candidates running, and most of the other candidates are competing for the same votes. Trump is getting the right wing-nuts among the right wing-nuts. He won't get much more than he has now, and it won't be enough to take their General spot.... imo.

[exboyfil]

33. Trump holds his 1/3

No clear candidate comes from the pack (Cruz is the only one that I think could break from it). Then you go to a brokered convention. 50+% are not going to form behind Bush or Rubio - both have demonstrated their inability to campaign. Christie has way too much baggage (and weight). Who else???

[Chemisse]

38. Paul Ryan? Or Mitt Romney.

This all would be so fascinating to watch if the stakes weren't so high.

[exboyfil]

41. Paul Ryan better lose the beard

Romney would have to admit that he amended his tax returns after the election to take the full charitable deduction that he passed up on so that the percentage paid did not look so awful. That would be my first question of him if I was a reporter. I am sure that he did it once he realized he was not going to be president.

I don't think the Republican party could withstand a white knight. Both Trump and Cruz would burn it down if they believed they were cheated.

[Chemisse]

46. Burn down the Republican Party?

No complaints here. They can all stand in a (metaphorical) circular firing squad.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

69. ha! yes beard hideous and accentuates

The widow's peak. I think that's why Trump hasn't denigrated Cruz...they maybe both agreed if either lost to endorse the other. Trump doesn't want Republicans to lose. And he wouldn't want his supporters to just stay home.

[tiredtoo]

44. Enjoyable thread here

My family gatherings also consist of many Republicans. Primarily they 50ish males. The females are Democratic leaning with the exception of one lady evangelical from the south. She shares most if not all Democratic values, but votes Republican.
Topic on hand. None of my Republican family members shows any support for Trump. Even the southern belle.

As for Kasich from Ohio, we have a similar bum in Michigan. Snyder, who is enjoying his second term of screwing the common folk in this state. The 50ish males all tell me he is doing a good job. Sadly they are in the dark as to reality. We avoid politics for the most part at family gatherings as we all agree family is more important than politics. Hasn't always been this way but fortunately, we all came to this conclusion before we broke apart as a family. A couple of us are very strong in our convictions.
I have not asked any of those scoundrels what they think of Snyder poisoning the children of Flint, Mi. I did however respond to one when he said something about Snyder being a good governor. "He and his Republican partners have created a state with numerous local communities and school systems falling into bankruptcy."
This brought silence and a change of topic.
Trump does not scare me as far as the election goes. His opinions and support do scare me a bit, what has happened to our country?

[Satch59]

51. Agree with you...

Similar conversations with my republican family members and not one Trump supporter...most said they don't like any in the group and most said they just wouldn't vote in the end... Bush or Kasich were the only probables...

Some here are taking the bait from the MSM who are selling Trump's fear factor show and I can't imagine any GOP winning the general without Hispanic/African American/Muslim American/women support...how would that possibly happen?

I too have been having trouble visiting here with the Bernie/Hillary hateful, almost childish war going on so will frequent more when our nominee is decided and we can be one force...

I'm also not afraid of Trump and would welcome Hillary or Bernie taking him down...

[sorefeet]

45. I need a Canadian wife

some day there will be refugees fleeing to Canada and I want to be one step ahead with a marriage license at least. America gives me the creeps when people like Cruz could even have a remote chance of being POTUS. Imagine HIS finger on the button.

[tabasco]

50. The American people are brainwashed by 24/7 corporate propaganda

It is only a matter of time before "it happens here."

[spanone]

53. no. there is not a very real danger of trump winning. none, nada, zip, ziltch, zero.

he IS a joke.

he has NO chance.

[mahina]

55. I so hope you are right.

I felt as you do above about Reagan and Bush II.

[GoneOffShore]

54. I'm more worried about cats with opposable thumbs, but here is a comforting thought.

I posted this before but it bears repeating.

Here's something to remember when looking at his poll numbers: Trump has the support of about 30% of likely Republican primary voters; pollsters usually peg "likely voters" at a bit over 60% in the general, but assume a freakishly high primary turnout, say seventy percent; then recall that self-identified Republicans are roughly 41% of all Americans.

0.3x0.7x0.41=0.0861

That's a bit under nine percent of the country, at a very generous estimate. Now remind yourself that eight percent of Americans believe the moon landings were faked. So.....

[mahina]

56. Mahalo for that!

I'm putting that equation on the bathroom mirror.

It is very comforting!

[spanone]

58. hahahaaa...but i've been wrong before!!!!

i really don't think my country will elect this guy....

[mahina]

57. How do Bernie and Hillary's numbers with independants compare to his, I wonder?

I'll do some looking after work.

[Arkana]

65. Haha, no there isn't.

Short of a dead girl/live boy scenario, either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders will be the next President.

[yuiyoshida]

70. Mahalo Mahina

People poo pooed George W. Bush winning, and that one stole the White House.. so anything is possible.. We Just have to make sure right person for the job is sitting in that House, at the end of the day.