Why do the Iowa caucuses matter? Because everyone thinks they do.

[mfcorey1]

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/25/10817088/iowa-caucus-2016-poll-trump-sanders

Donald Trump has dominated the GOP presidential race for seven months. Nothing €— not his many offensive comments, not his mediocre debate performances, and not the once-feared GOP establishment €— has been able to stop his rise.

But on February 1, all that could change when Trump faces by far his biggest challenge yet: the Iowa caucuses.

The results in Iowa — the first time a state's actual voters weigh in in the presidential nomination contest — can make the national contest turn on a dime. Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008, and he suddenly shot up to become competitive with Hillary Clinton in national polls. John Kerry came out of nowhere to win Iowa in 2004, and the presumed leader, Howard Dean, collapsed with astonishing speed.

And Trump looks vulnerable in Iowa. Recent polling has been mixed about whether he or Ted Cruz is leading, but there have been anecdotal reports suggesting that Trump's ground game — crucial in the low-turnout caucuses — is laughably inferior to Cruz's. So in the first contest that really counts, Trump could end up a loser. Yet if he manages to pull off a win — watch out.

But let's step back for a minute, and ask: Why do the quirky Iowa caucuses have this tremendous impact on the race, anyway?

[edhopper]

1. Cruz will win Iowa

because he has the better ground game. and that is all that matters in Iowa. How many vans do you have to get people to the caucuses (cauci?). He has been organizing there for over a year.

That's why NH and SC are more important.

though the media never understands this, thus your article.

[jwirr]

2. Iowa is the training ground as you say. The next two are

the test to see if they learned the lesson they will need on Super-Tuesday.

The primary is a state by state contest and means that they take what they learned in Iowa along with them all the way.

[underpants]

4. Well said

I posted the same thing but more long winded below.

[underpants]

3. Iowa really shows how strong your campaign is. The ground game.

Polls aren't very predictive in Iowa (NH either) because people aren't voting, they are caucusing. It's not walking in flipping a switch and leaving, it's sitting in the civic center-high school gym- or Bessie's potluck for hours. Campaigns have to get people there and make sure they stay. It's a great indicator of the campaign but that's about it.

There is a huge evangelical element in the GOP there. They will stay to the end.

2012 Iowa - Romney 25% Santorum 25%

[1939]

5. The point is

Two states (Iowa and NH) which are not representative of the national electorate (and less representative of the Democratic Party electorate) make or break candidacies. They are creations of the national media wanting to handicap the races as if they were horse races. If you8 don't do well in those states, your money dries up and you don't have enough for staffing or saturation advertising during Super Tuesday where a pile of delegates are at stake.