Larry Sabato: What We Learned From Iowa

[brooklynite]

U of VA Center for Politics:

1. How real is Trump’s support?

It wasn’t the night Donald Trump had hoped for. By all accounts, Trump did not have a sophisticated get-out-the-vote machine in Iowa and he did not engage in the tedious, retail campaigning that has defined past Iowa races. That could have cost him the state. Trump was at about 30% in averages of pre-election polls, so he underperformed by about six points. That could be because he did not have the requisite ground game. It also could be because he made a classic frontrunner’s mistake last week: He played it safe and skipped a debate where he would have been a big target. Instead, he opened the door for another candidate, Marco Rubio, to grab some of his votes.

2. How hard will Sanders make Clinton work?

We could hear the collective exhale from the Clinton camp all over the country. It was a very tight race, yet Hillary Clinton quite narrowly jumped a major hurdle by defeating Bernie Sanders in a state where she finished third in 2008. As we’ve been suggesting for months, the two leadoff states of Iowa and New Hampshire were tailor-made for Sanders because of their liberal, white electorates — Clinton does much better among nonwhite voters. But by holding off Sanders in Iowa, Clinton avoided what could have been an embarrassing 0-2 start in 2016. Even if Sanders wins New Hampshire, as currently expected, Clinton can just write off his victory as a result of regionalism. (Sanders is from neighboring Vermont, and New Hampshire has repeatedly backed candidates in both parties from the Northeast.) As the contest moves to the more diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina, the territory will be friendlier to Clinton. Nonetheless, Sanders has raised loads of small-dollar contributions and has a core of dedicated supporters, so the Democratic race could go on for a while, with Sanders winning here and there, especially in caucus states. However, Clinton remains a huge favorite for the Democratic nomination. Sanders (or any substitute later in the process) cannot defeat her unless scandal knocks Clinton from the race. In that sense, post-Iowa, Clinton’s real opponent for the party nomination is not Sanders, but the FBI.

3. What is the GOP leadership up to?

The story leading up to Iowa was that the GOP leadership was giving subtle support to Donald Trump because they preferred him over Ted Cruz. Gov. Terry Branstad and Sen. Chuck Grassley both said nice things about Trump in the leadup to the caucuses and bashed Cruz, and the press reported that many high-level members of the party would prefer Trump over Cruz as nominee, even if they preferred other candidates to that pair. But now that Cruz has won, we have to ask — is the GOP establishment ever going to get anything they want in this race? One positive sign for Republican leaders is that Marco Rubio had a strong night — he actually finished closer to Trump than Trump to Cruz. If Rubio can repeat that in New Hampshire he can start pushing establishment competitors Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich toward the exits.

4. Which candidates are on the chopping block?

We speculated last week that Mike Huckabee and Martin O’Malley were not long for this race, and both quickly suspended their campaigns on Monday night. It’s only a matter of time for Rick Santorum, who hardly has any money left, based on Federal Election Commission reports. Rand Paul only won about a fifth of the percentage of the vote that his father did four years ago, but he reportedly will fight on at least through New Hampshire. Ben Carson is reportedly not dropping out but is taking a quick (?) break back home in Florida. Carly Fiorina is an afterthought, and Bush, Christie, and Kasich need good showings in New Hampshire after combining for just about 7% of the vote — which, combined, is less than Carson’s fourth-place showing. Fiorina only got about 2% herself.

[geek tragedy]

1. The polling on T-Rump probably overestimates his vote share--his people

are less likely to show up to vote.

The Republicans already have their top 3.