The Walker vote has no influence on the Presidential vote

[Marzupialis]

Candidates of opposite parties often win the Presidential/Senate vote in any given state; therefore, the claim that a Walker win in Wisconsin means the reace will be tight and that Obama is in trouble is lazy and idiotic. MSM is repeating it a lot. I saw it in the WAPO or NYT recently and heard it in ABC radio this morning.

Walker is not Romney and his opponent is not Obama and the type of voters who show up for the Presidential election is not similar to that which shows up for a recall vote.

Lazy MSM journalists who make this claim are acting on intuition, without real analysis as to why a Walker win means trouble for Obama.

[Scuba]

1. Disagree, but value your opinion. Welcome to DU!

[HereSince1628]

2. People look for momentum and 'other indicators', many voters 'jump on bandwagons'

So there are reasons to think that what happens on Tuesday will have some implications that won't be merely "lazy and idiotic."

So, I'll stipulate that because people like to be on winning sides and will jump on winning bandwagons, and sit at home when their side is losing, this WI Recall probably will influence people. And it will be used by the winning side to cheerfully encourage people to jump on the bandwagon of the winning side.

I think a bigger issue is that people across the United States, and even people in countries around the world, wrongly see the Wisconsin Recall as solving way more than can be reasonably expected.

The assault on the rights of people for selfish gains by the maurading horde of corporatists IS NOT GOING TO STOP.

IT WON'T STOP REGARDLESS OF A RECALL VICTORY OR LOSS IN WISCONSIN ON JUNE 5th.

Ideally the real take away impact of Wisconsin Recall would be that people everywhere become willing to protect the rights and privileges that give shelter to common people, because as we have painfully demonstrated in Wisconsin, without such constant effort those rights and privileges will be lost to the greedy desires of the rich and powerful.

[Evergreen Emerald]

3. It is a David and Goliath moment

They want to fundamentally change America to create a permanent ability for the few to retain power, to siphon our treasury while we become third-world workers, with small wages, no benefits.

What is happening in Wisconsin is the "David and Goliath" moment. It is the most important stand we can make.

Can the little guy stand against the giant corporations? Do we have any power?
Or, shall we just shut up and sit down?

We need to unite. We need everyone in American standing in front of that Wisconsin capitol. With a megaphone.

[JDPriestly]

4. Welcome to DU, Marzupialis, but I disagree with you.

Normally local elections are not so important, but there are several unusual factors in the Walker race.

First, the public employees' unions lend vital support to Democratic campaigns across the nation. A loss that could be viewed as a blow against those Wisconsin unions would be distressing to union members across the nation. The distrust that rank and file union members in many places feel toward the current leadership of the Democratic Party could increase considerably if there is a sense that the Democratic leadership did not put out enough effort to prevail against the Koch Brothers' money bomb in Wisconsin.

Second, the Wisconsin demonstrations against Walker's war on unions were a national news sensation at least in Democratic news media. Remember how Ed Schultz went to Wisconsin. His reports were exciting and motivated a lot of Democrats to support the Wisconsin union members. Many Democrats who were apathetic during the 2010 elections following the never-ending health care reform debacle, became energized and and excited.

I remember the depression and discouragement following Kerry's failed campaign in 2004. The Obama campaign and Democrats in general cannot afford to let similar emotions permeate the Democratic ranks at this time. But that would likely happen if Wisconsin Democrats lose on Tuesday.

Finally, if the OP were correct, Walker's financial supporters would not be spending so extremely much on furthering his career. After all, Walker is not a very charismatic figure. He has very little personal stature or strength. In truth, Republicans view Wisconsin as just a testing ground for how far they can go toward ridding the United States of unions and all the labor rights that unions defend.

(Of course, some of the more conservative so-called "Democrats" agree with Walker and the Republicans on this. We have only to look at Obama's education policies to ask ourselves just how genuine Democrats' support of unions and labor in general is.)

So, I very definitely disagree with the OP. A win in Wisconsin will be good for the Democratic Party and Obama. A loss will be a huge blow. It will place in question the sincerity of Obama's and the DNC's support for unions.

It's a shame the DNC did not get really active much earlier on in Wisconsin. Democrats in Wisconsin appear to have done a great job. Barrett's debates were fantastically good. He is a good man, and I hope he wins.

[treestar]

5. REC

Amen. This is stupid shit right here. Every local R victory means the Rs will get the Presidency. Meanwhile every local D victory is ignored.

[boomerbust]

6. Listening to Ms. Harris Perry

Wisconsin is not a bellwether. Because you see, only southern liberals will decide the fate of this country. A few months back she claimed racism within the northern white liberal. She can STFU too.

[1StrongBlackMan]

12. Uhmmm ...

Having heard alot of the Dr.'s comments, I strongly suspect that's not what she said. Perhaps your filter needs adjusting.

Or post a link to her comment.

[goclark]

14. Right you are

Please tell me the Harris -Perry crap isn't starting here again.

She is one of the few people on MSM that is in our corner.

What is the problem!!!!!

[1StrongBlackMan]

15. WHAT'S THE PROBLEM? WHAT'S THE PROBLEM? ...

I'll tell you the problem! She KEEPS saying SOME white liberals hold President Obama to a different standard than they hold/have held white politicians.

Damn her! Because, of course, SOME means ALL; but more importantly, SOME means ME!

[lunatica]

7. You make a couple of good points but

Saying the media uses intuition is hogwash. And it's also the last thing they should be using, being the media and all. They should stick to facts.

[Frustratedlady]

8. If Barret loses, it will have a huge effect...

The Republicans will smell blood.

[Marzupialis]

11. So far I've seen a lot of pop psychology

To explain how the Walker vote will hypothetically have an impact on the Presidential vote. No data comparing Presidential votes vs. any other type of election. Simply intuition. I've seen that when it's argued that this or that pipeline will lower gas prices because of psychology, or that cutting taxes will have a huge psychological impact which will improve the economy.

[TheKentuckian]

9. So your argument is in part that some folks will vote for a right wing extremist ideologue

and also would vote for Obama?

I don't see it. I grant you that my own Kentucky almost never elects a Republican Governor and almost always goes Republican nationally but the Democratic Governors haven't even a passing resemblance to Barbara Lee.

I consider Obama to generally be a traditional conservative. There is quite an ideological gulf between traditional conservative and radical regressive Koch whore. Enough to where I don't see common votes.
Maybe Obama is closer to regressive than even I see and there is less commonality between racists and radical regressives than I believe too.

I get that general elections draw out more voters and that Obama probably has an advantage with that bloc but I don't get why it is so huge of an advantage that a crumbling and flipping base isn't a concern, especially long term beyond this coming November.

No influence doesn't seem to have much of a case built either. I see nothing to get cocky about and far from enough evidence to be scoffing at another opinion or concern expressed.

[Marzupialis]

10. No. That wasn't my argument, in part or in whole

Never said that Walker voters would vote for Obama, although your comment was vague since you said "some" Walker voters will vote for Obama. which means if 2 vote for Obama then "some" was right.

[1StrongBlackMan]

13. 1+ ...

Some democrats will vote for Walker just to make an anti-recall statement, without regard to his politics.